Originally posted by MJPerry
Originally posted by FrozenElf
How can you say CO is clearly a fish, this is a very good playMate...
BB checks, Hero bets $0.89, CO raises to $10.99
If that was all you read, then you seem like one of those "im always right kind of people" and this conversation is pretty pointless because its going to go nowhere
I'm not always right but in this instance I clearly am. I didn't think I'd have to explain why making a 12x raise is bad but OK.
All draws fold. If you have a set or straight you want draws to call getting bad odds.
All medium strength hands fold. If you have a set or straight you want medium strength hands to call drawing dead.
Lots of good hands fold. If you have a set or a straight you want good hands to call. This is a thread in which you are advocating folding bottom set against this raise and saying this raise is a good play to make with top set/straight. Both cannot be true!
No good reg would make this shove unless they misclicked. CO is clearly a fish.
so you believe that Hero In this case after Donk betting into 4players for 3/4 of the pot has draws or a medium strength hand in his range?
If I was sat where CO was it looks from his position as if MP has a monster 2 pair +so shoving is more then a good move with 67 since like I said previousl;y there are a lot of cards that kill the action, and based on villains action Donk bet into 4 players and bet size he has a strong enough hand to call a shove with
Can you see my argument?
1. Hero doesn't donk since he is preflop aggressor.
2. Villain definitely looks fishy when he shoves to a standard size cbet. It looks like he has some overpair or 2 pair or set and he doesn't want to see more cards. Nuts would definitely raise smaller here.
3. Villain here definitely has more hands than just 67 in his range. We have put villain on a reasonable range before and as our calculations suggest we have enough equity to call it. Villain will sometimes have 67 (we still have some equity) and he will have weaker hands than we do.
Villain shoving here definitely looks pretty strong and we might think that we are often behind, but as you can see from the calculations this call is still +EV in the long rung. If we think villain will have AA, sets, A2, 76, Ah6h and any 2 pair we still have 50% equity and it is a clear call. Even vs 76 we have enough equity to call.
1. Hero doesn't donk since he is preflop aggressor.
I completely misread this hand
Originally posted by FrozenElf
so you believe that Hero In this case after Donk betting into 4players for 3/4 of the pot has draws or a medium strength hand in his range?
It's not a donk bet, it's a cbet. It's still strong to do it into 4 players, but not as strong as you're thinking. That said...
Originally posted by FrozenElf
so you believe that Hero In this case after Donk betting into 4players for 3/4 of the pot has draws or a medium strength hand in his range?
If hero is decent then he should have those hands in his range. Obviously you can't ONLY donk with sets or better.
Originally posted by FrozenElf
If I was sat where CO was it looks from his position as if MP has a monster 2 pair +so shoving is more then a good move with 67 since like I said previousl;y there are a lot of cards that kill the action, and based on villains action Donk bet into 4 players and bet size he has a strong enough hand to call a shove withCan you see my argument?
I buy that there are a lot of cards that kill the action. That's why raising is a good idea. The problem with this raise size is that only a miniscule part of the opponents' ranges will call a shove; many more hands will call a normal-sized (or even large) raise. If you have the nuts and your opponent has the second nuts or near-nuts, the money is going in anyway. A smaller raise keeps in a lot more hands than that very narrow range.
CO is making a classic mistake you often see live players make, where they have a strong hand but are scared of being outdrawn so make a huge bet to "fold out draws" which is the opposite of what you want to actually accomplish with a strong hand.
Originally posted by MJPerry
Originally posted by FrozenElf
How can you say CO is clearly a fish, this is a very good playMate...
BB checks, Hero bets $0.89, CO raises to $10.99
it's definitely a fishy play
Never folding here, for me CO overbet shove looks a lot weaker than normal raise and BU is calling super wide all FD's,6x, overpairs, I wouldn't be surprised to see even hands like AdJd in BU range, so folding is really bad.
If i did the math right, you need 37% Equity and that is, what you have, if we give them this range.
Board: 3♦5♥4♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 26.03% 25.35% 0.68% { 3h3c }
MP3 36.48% 34.61% 1.87% { 55-44, A2s, 76s, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 8h7h, Ah3h }
CO 37.49% 35.62% 1.87% { 55-44, A2s, 76s, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, 8h7h, Ah3h }
IF both players have overpairs, thatn it is enough.
Board: 3♦5♥4♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 43.32% 42.25% 1.06% { 3h3c }
MP3 30.08% 28.68% 1.40% { QQ-TT, 55-44, A2s, 76s, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 8h7h, Ah3h }
CO 26.60% 25.20% 1.40% { QQ-99, 55-44, A2s, 76s, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, 8h7h, Ah3h }
Vs an unknown i wouldn´t call.
Originally posted by zoty79
Vs an unknown i wouldn´t call.
Those villains are unknown. How do you think it changes this? We have constructed many different possible ranges that villain might have and we can see clearly that we have enough equity to call. We have enough equity even against nut straight here.
I the first example we have 26% equity vs. both ranges, and we need 37%. I my 2nd example we have 43% , and that would be enough, if we could assume, that both players are absulotly spewtards. But i don´t know. I play NL10, and on my table i mostly have 1 Fish and 4 Regs - rocks. So, the chance that the unknown player is a reg or rock is bigger than the possibility that he is a fish. So vs unknows i would chose to fold. If we would have middle or topset, it would be sometihing different.
The equity calculation is difficult because one villain is short-stacked (if we end up behind BU but ahead of CO we still make money). Some of the earlier calculations only took one villain into account though and that's clearly giving us too much equity.
I am now convinced this should be a call. (Fortunately for me I snap call it at the table because I've read MJPerry's book on NL10 for idiots.)
It is very hard to calculate when villains are unknown, shortstack or whatever.
In this case- call and make a note.
I am staggered that this thread has this many replies.
OP obviously got set-over-set or this thread wouldn't exist. Sucks for him, but ffs we're not going to fold a set versus a fish at NL10 it's fucking mental.
