AQ IP River Bluff Bet After Calling Down Flop and Turn

Pre ok, flop ok, turn ok since we have many outs and villain bets only 1/2pot. I think OTR villain will not fold to a 1/2pot bet very often. We called OTT because we had the odds to call. When we don't hit we can give up. Most likely villain is not quite sure where he is standing with his hand but is holding something better than A high and will often call half pot bets OTR. Could we semibluff-raise OTT?

Weird hand in general. Villain's pre-flop play doesn't make any sense, so it could be anything.

As played, I'd treat this as a normal pot, so calling once is ok. On turn it seems quite bad, he doesn't seem too strong but you can't just call as you won't most likely have the odds here. So it could be a place for bluff-raise, but you can also fold.

On river I'd give up, or then bet big against known guy who can fold hands. In this spot it's a check-back.

Asumming your ace is good you have
3 outs to the Ace
9 outs to the flush
3 outs to the ten (as we counted a ten in the flush outs)

so 15 outs on the turn ~ 30% equity.

So calling on the turn is OK i'd say. I also think raising on the turn is good if you are playing a player with reasonable stats as you have a blocker to the nut flush, which reduces his flush possibilities, and his half pot on the turn doesn't scream strength.

As played I think you need to make it 3/4 on the river if you are going for a bluff, but the problem you have is the 8 doesn't really improve you. I think it's probably close on the river between bluffing and just folding but i'd just call. Ace queen is good some small percentage of the time on the river also.

Hello la55i; CPallo; iSoOwnYou,

You've all mentioned that semibluff raising OTT could have been another line so that, on one hand how much would you raise and on the other, what would you do after a call on a blank river for us?

With what size will you raise turn with nuts?

Don't bother raising turn, if we get shoved it's a disaster and I don't think you to worry about balancing your strong hands here.
I'd be more inclined to raise flop and fold to any other action because it's quite hard to have the odds vs that cbet sizing, we're not sure our non gutshot cards are outs and how much we do make when we do hit it.
As played just x behind on river because the hands that are going to fold are hands that you beat anyways.

As played we should not bet on river. Hardly anything better is folding.

I think raising turn would be better than raising OTF. If you do it OTT it looks stronger and has more fold equity, our hand has also improved and we have more equity. Raising flop would be a bluff, OTT would be semibluff.

Raising flop is not better than raising turn.

I think we can make KQ and worse fold on the river. But this takes a little bigger bet imo, the half-pot bet will only fold out Jx, a fairly unlikely hand). I am still just giving up on the river, grateful for having drawn cheaply to the nuts.