Raise on the river

I would 3bet this hand preflop for value, but calling is also fine, I think. Flop check/call is standard and turn check/call is also standard. When he checked back the turn, I like betting river half pot for value and would fold vs the raise. It would not be an easy fold, though, because I expect his value hands to cbet this turn. On the other hand, if he is villing to bluff, I also expect him to cbet bluff the turn. Overall, I think he will have 2x and slowplayed set (99, 66) more often there than a pure bluff, more than 76% of time, where our pot odds are 24%. In other words, I don't think that our call will be profitable in 24% of cases and more.

Ok so here is my thinking.

1) Pre-flop, 3 bet or call, both are an option. I decided to call this time.
2) Flop pretty standard check/call.
3) Turn is where it becomes interesting. When he bets the turn, I think it's almost always for pure value (AQ, 22, 99, maybe 66 when he decides to fire flop). When he checks back the turn, I'd expect him to give up very often, or I'd expect him to check back hands with good to decent show-down value. Those hands are Qx, some 2x hands but to be honest, I don't see that many 2x hands. The only one I can see is A2s. But those are just 3 combo's. He can't have the A♥:2♥: here since I hold the A♥: . Him checking back turns are very often Qx and 9x hands, but also 77-88-TT-JJ
4) Given what I think on the river, I decided the following. What I've seen very often is that villains are almost always checking back 2nd pairs which obviously makes sense. However, they like to call half pot river bets on the river. So I'm actually betting the river for pure value. I expect folds or calls, never a raise since that wouldn't make sense at all. They are almost never checking back turns with sets. Just almost never. On the other hand, when they raise rivers, they just have it very often. But given the above thinking, I just cannot see what hand he could have except especially A2s but those are just 3 combo's.

I thought for about 10 seconds and I've decided to call obviously since there are not many value hands that he is repping. I'm very surprised by your thinking. I was actually fairly convinced that this is a pretty easy call, but maybe I should review my thinking. What do others think?

By the way, he ended up having A♠:J♦: .

I agree that his raise doesn't make sense, but more often than not my TP is no good in those situations. That's my experience. Since he did that, you should definitelly take a note of him because his river play is not something you would see very often.

I would not 3 bet this hand. Prefer just call.
Flop anf turn is ok.
What will make me think of calling on river is his x on turn. His line of story is inconsistent.
On the other hand river bluff raise is very very rare on this limit and our hand is not that good...
I would not call river. But as you did, take a note.

Originally posted by nitrol
I would not 3 bet this hand. Prefer just call.
Flop anf turn is ok.
What will make me think of calling on river is his x on turn. His line of story is inconsistent.
On the other hand river bluff raise is very very rare on this limit and our hand is not that good...
I would not call river. But as you did, take a note.

Mind if I ask why not 3-bet AQ HU vs CO? We should get calls from weaker stuff quite often as he is IP and could be calling all kinds of pesky connectors and weaker Ax. For example, I think against 3-bet villain calls AT-AQ pre, maybe AK. I would be more inclined to call AT-AJ;22-TT;KQ. Disregard it all if we have information that villain is 4-bet happy.

As for the hand, I think this spot is tough, mostly because it is micros where people don't bluff or at least don't try to turn their showdown value into bluffs. As a valueplay his line doesn't make any sense at all, it's just that Hero can't represent a superstrong range himself (As stated before, I'm expecting AQ to 3-bet here). We mostly have sets and TPs in our range. Sets are not that likely as I would anticipate a smaller bet OTR with those. I'm not saying that villains bluff here was good, because it's not, I think KQ could find a call here aswell. When he does this in such a dry board I would anticipate polarised range from him.

First and most important is- we cannot call if villain 4 bets. And turning our hand into a bluff is not ok too.
Second, I prefer to keep all Ax hands in his range and he has A2s+, ATo+.
Third, If heavy action postflop, we cannot stay for long.

Originally posted by Pichux
Mind if I ask why not 3-bet AQ HU vs CO?

I really think its a matter of taste, since we are on late positions and we can actually 3bet this hand for value. Calling is good too, cause u play posflop w a hand above the average of ur opponent range.

ferrari1f, I think the key factor to the call was the flaw on story villain was telling u.
Of course the majority of players dont bluff too much in these spots in micros, but what is also true is that they dont bluff well. Tricky opponents can make this check behind move w monsters, but many others ll just see that maybe u are not that strong and raise w worrying if this can make any sense.
Congrats to ur hero call ♠_drink:

Originally posted by Afulibador

Originally posted by Pichux
Mind if I ask why not 3-bet AQ HU vs CO?

I really think its a matter of taste, since we are on late positions and we can actually 3bet this hand for value. Calling is good too, cause u play posflop w a hand above the average of ur opponent range.

It id not a matter of taste , it is calculations and more EV.

Originally posted by Afulibador
ferrari1f, I think the key factor to the call was the flaw on story villain was telling u.
Of course the majority of players dont bluff too much in these spots in micros, but what is also true is that they dont bluff well. Tricky opponents can make this check behind move w monsters, but many others ll just see that maybe u are not that strong and raise w worrying if this can make any sense.
Congrats to ur hero call ♠_drink:

Too many words again and no advice on how you would play the hand.

I m calling this hand. The line that villain made doesnt make much sense for me.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Afulibador

Originally posted by Pichux
Mind if I ask why not 3-bet AQ HU vs CO?

I really think its a matter of taste, since we are on late positions and we can actually 3bet this hand for value. Calling is good too, cause u play posflop w a hand above the average of ur opponent range.

It id not a matter of taste , it is calculations and more EV.

Without info, I think u can go both ways... and choose the line u think u are more comfortable playing.

Without info you should have a default strategy vs unknown and not decide cause "because the weather is fine"...

Against some opponents I 3-bet for value. On higher stakes I might 3-bet for value as well. It all depends. Here, I felt calling is better. And here calling is often my default play.

Postflop, especially on the river, I went on making this decision based on a population read. I felt that 5% of players is checking back turns with monsters. Because of that, his river play didn't make sense.

The river is a call because we essentially have the nut bluff catcher and get good odds. No deep thought required at all=)

Pre fine, flop and turn fine.

OTR I would call his raise. We have nut bluff catcher and get good odds AND his story is inconsistent. Only hand that makes sense here is 2x and he shouldn't have that many 2x hands in his range, A2s is probably the only one. When I look at his line I get a strong feeling that he is bluffing.

Originally posted by YohanN7
The river is a call because we essentially have the nut bluff catcher and get good odds. No deep thought required at all=)

Yeah, I wouldn't say it's an "easy" call but it doesn't really make sense for him to check the turn with 66/99, so unless he has specifically A2s I expect we're up against JT/KJ and such a lot. Definitely often enough to be a profitable call, anyway.

Originally posted by ferrari1f
I don't see that many 2x hands. The only one I can see is A2s. But those are just 3 combo's. He can't have the A♥:2♥: here since I hold the A♥: .

Even if u didnt had it... the 2♥: is on the board ♠_grin:
By the same logic, just 2 combos of A2s are possible holdings... :spade::club: