NL20 Speed – make two pair on dangerous river

MJPerry

Joined: 03.10.2011

19.01.2016, 20:55 0

Villain is 80/40 over 12 hands.

IPoker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $26.31 (131.6 bb)
BB: $29.03 (145.2 bb)
UTG: $37.67 (188.4 bb)
Hero (MP): $19.80 (99 bb)
CO: $21.80 (109 bb)
BTN: $9.07 (45.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 3 folds, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.30) 3 4 8 (2 players)
BB bets $0.91, Hero calls $0.91

Turn: ($3.12) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $2.18, Hero calls $2.18

River: ($7.48) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3.74, Hero calls $3.74

:spade: :heart: :diamond: :club:The Artist Formerly Known as PokerStrategy.com's Online Editor :club: :diamond: :heart: :spade:
This is my blog. Good, innit?

Reply

Quote

5 replies

MJPerry

Joined: 03.10.2011

Posts: 4,867

19.01.2016, 20:57 0

My thoughts below.

Spoiler

When he donks the flop I think he probably has quite a wide range, as fish donks often do. He could have sets, two pair, draws, overpairs... call is standard I think. On the turn he barrels. He's done this 100% so far over the very small sample. I believe his range is still draws/pairs+.

Board: 3♥4♣8♣ 7♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    41.87%  40.52%   1.35% { 9h8h }
MP3    58.13%  56.78%   1.35% { TT-77, 44-33, A8s, A5s, A2s, T8s, 98s, 84s+, 73s, 65s, 43s, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, Ac6c, 87o }

Even if I only have heart outs, I'm definitely getting good enough implied odds to call.

The river is interesting because I improve, but against that turn range my equity doesn't skyrocket. I don't think he bets his 8x or small two pairs now; just bluffs, straights and flushes. His bluff range is pretty narrow, but even if we only give him a few combos (in this case, A2s but I think Ac5x etc is reasonable) then it's a call.

Board: 3♥4♣8♣ 7♥ 9♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    27.27%  27.27%   0.00% { 9h8h }
MP3    72.73%  72.73%   0.00% { A2s, 65s, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, Ac6c }

:spade: :heart: :diamond: :club:The Artist Formerly Known as PokerStrategy.com's Online Editor :club: :diamond: :heart: :spade:
This is my blog. Good, innit?

Reply

Quote

kriko92

Joined: 16.11.2010

Posts: 229

19.01.2016, 21:43 0

The most important thing to notice here is his change in sizing from turn to river. In general when that happens it means that his hand strenght has changed. The most likely thing going on here is that he had a value hand that he liked on flop/turn but is now scared on the river - can be sets, two pairs, TT-JJ and rarely 8x if he is the type of fish who likes his hands too much. The other possible thing is that he was bluffing with a FD which now hits and bets half for value. He will not have bluffs though, these A2/A5 you mentioned won't play like that - his hand strenght hasn't changed on the river, it is still a bluff.

I'd fold 8x, raise flushes for value and call this one.

Reply

Quote

MJPerry

Joined: 03.10.2011

Posts: 4,867

20.01.2016, 01:22 0

Good point about the sizing.

If you think he won't have bluffs, what do you expect we're beating?

:spade: :heart: :diamond: :club:The Artist Formerly Known as PokerStrategy.com's Online Editor :club: :diamond: :heart: :spade:
This is my blog. Good, innit?

Reply

Quote

nitrol

Joined: 24.07.2010

Posts: 11,244

20.01.2016, 08:54 0

Villain s often donk pairs or draws. As both draws complete I do not think he will 3barrel with just a pair.
Our call with top 2p is very light...
Fold river is better.
Maybe the 1/2 psb on river is to make us pay with exactly the hand we have. ..

Reply

Quote

Afulibador

Joined: 21.08.2009

Posts: 1,175

21.01.2016, 00:42 0

Originally posted by MJPerry
Good point about the sizing.

If you think he won't have bluffs, what do you expect we're beating?

kriko mentioned TT-JJ and some rare 8x can be betting this river.

Reply

Quote

NL20 Speed - make two pair on dangerous river