Flush vs fish

Of course not calling. Limp/caller has a bunch of PPs in his range that beat you here.

No. As played, you might aswell could have done this with Ax without the flush, because we are bluffcatching extremely stupid bluffs in this spot. Fish has all cards in his range, that make a FH. He could even overplay 4x hands, so the call is really terrible IMO.

To get Villain's given hand in his opening range I have put in equilab VPIP: 75% and slid the PFR to 17.3% to include J9s (no card removal): 776 hands: 58.5%
Flop
I let V continue with all made hands+; A-high; K-high; gutshot straight draws and two card flush draws, no nut. V's range now has 413 hands after card removal. H's equity is 66.4%.
Turn
V range has hit: 383 hands after card removal. H's equity is 56.5%.
River
V range has 367 hands of which 162 are better than H's. H's equity is 55.9%

IMO a call is in the long run profitable.

Raise pre flop is standard. I like the cbet on the flop too with nut flush draw. Check turn is fine. But when he bets the pot on the river, that should be an easy fold. With the three 9's out there, A7 beats you, any pocket pair beats you too. Really, really hard to fold the nut flush, but his big river bet should make it easy.

Originally posted by wimNP
To get Villain's given hand in his opening range I have put in equilab VPIP: 75% and slid the PFR to 17.3% to include J9s (no card removal): 776 hands: 58.5%
Flop
I let V continue with all made hands+; A-high; K-high; gutshot straight draws and two card flush draws, no nut. V's range now has 413 hands after card removal. H's equity is 66.4%.
Turn
V range has hit: 383 hands after card removal. H's equity is 56.5%.
River
V range has 367 hands of which 162 are better than H's. H's equity is 55.9%

IMO a call is in the long run profitable.

You are missing something. I doubt villain is donking with his whole range here... he will do it with FH+ as he is afraid that you will xb river. And vs that range you are dead all day long.

Limp/call is very often a pocket pair so full houses are likely. Folding is fine.

Yes, I actually have never experienced a potbet bluff OTR from a fish. Perhaps it happens but seldom. You can safely fold here.

Originally posted by Hesticus
Yes, I actually have never experienced a potbet bluff OTR from a fish. Perhaps it happens but seldom. You can safely fold here.

Really? I have seen a lot of pot size bluffs. I have a population read especially at NL2 that ppl bluff with pot size bets but those are kind of polarized. Lets say those are at least 50% time a bluff. Still based on the preflop action I would say it is very likely he has a small pocket pair and folding is fine. Calling is not terrible since we hold the nut bluffcatcher.

Okay, interesting. Yeah, I have really experienced bad moments when I called a pot-sized bet OTR from villain at NL2. Maybe I'm not choosing my spots well. You mean 'population read' in terms of a large sample?

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by Hesticus
Yes, I actually have never experienced a potbet bluff OTR from a fish. Perhaps it happens but seldom. You can safely fold here.

Really? I have seen a lot of pot size bluffs. I have a population read especially at NL2 that ppl bluff with pot size bets but those are kind of polarized. Lets say those are at least 50% time a bluff. Still based on the preflop action I would say it is very likely he has a small pocket pair and folding is fine. Calling is not terrible since we hold the nut bluffcatcher.

Mmmmm it may be so but still the pot bet is for value. I have seen both but value comes more often.

If we have 55,9% equity then it is profitable to call. However given how the hand was played it wasn´t an easy decision. Even with the small sample of hands for this villan I think we can venture to say that this type of player will raise any Ax, JT+, 66+ and limp with the rest of his range (again this is just a guess). Against the limping range we should have about 62% equity,

I suppose that the pot size bet should have rang a bell that he was traying to get value.

Again opinions differ. Some see nuts only and some see a bluff "because they always bluff with a pot bet". Nobody really knows. The best advice is then to call with the best bluff catchers and fold the worst. You can then not go very wrong because sometimes they will be bluffing and sometimes they bet their nuts for value. The bonus is that your best bluff catchers will now be underrepresented value hands that will beat some of villains thinner value bets.