Floating flop and bluff shoving river in 3b pot

What hands are you trying to represent? If I was villain I'm calling this with QQ.

AK, 99, 55, maybe KQ as well.

Will villain play a smaller Kx like that and xc river?

Imo AK/AA/KK/QQ 4bets btn vs blinds here almost always so as villain I would not be afraid of AK. Your hands looks a lot like 99/KQ/the hand that you have so that's why I would be calling here with Kx/QQ(we block KQ nicely).

But you are right with your thinking; villain checked ott being OOP so he is likely to have a hand like TT/JJ(you block some JJ)/QQ. If you think that your villain will fold those hands to a shove then shoving is fine.

You can calculate yourself if your shove is good;
Villain needs to fold 42% to brake even.(assuming that you will never win at showdown)

Lets assume he calls with 2 combos of QQ and all combos of KQ, and that he can have 3 combos of AK/AA/KK that he decided to x ott.

So he folds all combos of TT/JJ and some QQ.

Total combos that villain has:(6 TT, 4 JJ, 6 QQ, 16 KQ, 3 AK etc.)=35
Villain folds to your shove(4QQ,6TT,4JJ)=14 combos

--> Villain will fold 40%(14/35) of his hands to your shove. You needed 42% to brake-even. IMO this is a good shove since the ranges might be a bit different and villain might not call with QQ. Also villain might never check his AK or AA on the turn-->shove is always +ev.

Also when you check on the river you will almost never win so shoving is better than checking.

Conclusion: Well played. I hope that I helped you.

Originally posted by nitrol
Will villain play a smaller Kx like that and xc river?

This depends on villains 3bet. Does villain 3bet hands like K5s or KJ?

Originally posted by marsa08
What hands are you trying to represent? If I was villain I'm calling this with QQ.

villain is repping weak Kx with his cc on turn. So hero can rep KQ+. Still I think that shove on river is very -EV, since the board didnt change much, and villain is full of Kx hands on river, so I dont see what he can fold (unless he has a read on you that you rarely bluff which is obviously not the case). Flop I would fold, I think that on such connected board you have many better hands to defend.

Originally posted by marsa08
Imo AK/AA/KK/QQ 4bets btn vs blinds here almost always so as villain I would not be afraid of AK. Your hands looks a lot like 99/KQ/the hand that you have so that's why I would be calling here with Kx/QQ(we block KQ nicely).

But you are right with your thinking; villain checked ott being OOP so he is likely to have a hand like TT/JJ(you block some JJ)/QQ. If you think that your villain will fold those hands to a shove then shoving is fine.

You can calculate yourself if your shove is good;
Villain needs to fold 42% to brake even.(assuming that you will never win at showdown)

Lets assume he calls with 2 combos of QQ and all combos of KQ, and that he can have 3 combos of AK/AA/KK that he decided to x ott.

So he folds all combos of TT/JJ and some QQ.

Total combos that villain has:(6 TT, 4 JJ, 6 QQ, 16 KQ, 3 AK etc.)=35
Villain folds to your shove(4QQ,6TT,4JJ)=14 combos

--> Villain will fold 40%(14/35) of his hands to your shove. You needed 42% to brake-even. IMO this is a good shove since the ranges might be a bit different and villain might not call with QQ. Also villain might never check his AK or AA on the turn-->shove is always +ev.

Also when you check on the river you will almost never win so shoving is better than checking.

Conclusion: Well played. I hope that I helped you.

Thanks a lot.

Flop fold is the right play. What do you hope for on turn?

Originally posted by nitrol
Flop fold is the right play. What do you hope for on turn?

My only thought was that villain would cbet this board with almost his entire range and that I can bluff him on the turn. Probably a mistake since I have almost no equity vs villains range. I should fold and wait for a better spot.

fold flop is std....

I think folding OTF is better. As played villains turn x/c implies that he doesn't have a very strong hand and we can rep higher Kx and full houses OTR. If we decide to stab OTT I think we should continue it OTR.

Originally posted by Grokken

Originally posted by nitrol
Flop fold is the right play. What do you hope for on turn?

My only thought was that villain would cbet this board with almost his entire range and that I can bluff him on the turn. Probably a mistake since I have almost no equity vs villains range. I should fold and wait for a better spot.

OK, but there arenut that much cards that can improve us.

Oh yeah, I forgot to say that too. Fold otf but as played I think that your shove is ok

Originally posted by marsa08
...

So he folds all combos of TT/JJ and some QQ.

Total combos that villain has:(6 TT, 4 JJ, 6 QQ, 16 KQ, 3 AK etc.)=35
Villain folds to your shove(4QQ,6TT,4JJ)=14 combos

...

no offense but its 3 combos of JJ and 12 combos of KQ (cardremoval), which ceteris paribus doesnt change your conclusions.

Oh yeah; thanks for correcting me. I should not write these posts in a hurry...

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Grokken

Originally posted by nitrol
Flop fold is the right play. What do you hope for on turn?

My only thought was that villain would cbet this board with almost his entire range and that I can bluff him on the turn. Probably a mistake since I have almost no equity vs villains range. I should fold and wait for a better spot.

OK, but there arenut that much cards that can improve us.

I agree. Calling flop was a mistake.

It's a gutsy move, but I'd do it with different hands, like J♠:T♠: that have something going for them. Here, hitting an A is a mixed blessing. He 3-bet you preflop.

Fold flop.

As played on flop, I like the follow-through.