Originally posted by la55i
Having priced ourselves is not the same. It doesn't matter if we need 10 or 20% on pot odds of our turn call is wrong.
True.
We have where to improve but is this enough ...
I believe it is. We need 28% to call and we get 22% only vs sets. Add QQ,KK and some draws in villains range and we have a clear call OTT. Or what do you think?
push seems like it.
Several guys, including you, have earlier advised to call and see the river. You said it yourself that villain can still bet turn with worse hands and we can improve our hand. By pushing here we would isolate ourselves against better hands only. Did you make some calculations to check that pushing would be better?
Yes, by calling we will leave a insignificant stack behind (20bb), but if villain decides to shove the rest OTR, can we really call if we don't improve? I'm almost 100% sure villain will not risk the rest of his stack with weaker hand than AA.
If we call: we keep villains range wider, we can cut our losses to 80bb.
If we shove: we will risk 100bb, isolate ourselves against a range that we have only 20% equity against. Hands that will fold to shove are probably giving us free showdown if we call so no need to shove as a bluff.
I missed the part with the stack left. Sorry.
With the turn call we are committed.
Yes, I also think there is not call! But the question is whether there is a push?
Are we behind?
CO 59.54% 59.03% 0.50% 88+, AJs, QTs, J9s, T7s, 98s, QTo, J9o, T7o, 98o
BU 40.46% 39.96% 0.50% AhAc
All those off-suited hands may not be in his 3 bet calling range preflop. AJ may not play like that.
MP2 42.11% 42.11% 0.00% AhAc
MP3 57.89% 57.89% 0.00% QQ-JJ, 99-88, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc
I'm still not convinced. What is the upside in shoving vs calling?
We get the correct odds to call and we can limit our losses to 80bb and keep villains range wider. Worse hands will give us free showdown and better hands will not fold to shove. I would agree that we are committed to call villains river shove if we had even 10% equity here, but since I believe we have 0% calling his shove would be suicide.
I would agree with shove on the turn if we would have to call his river bet. This is 3bet pot and villain x/r flop, bet turn in this straighty flushy board. I think he will give us a free showdown even with sets but he will never fold those to our shove OTT.
So I would call and fold to a river bet rather than shove turn and see his flush/straigt/set with a hand that has 20% equity.
Am I completely wrong here?
You have to take QQ out of that range. He will not call that if we shove.. That will reduce our equity from 42% to 20%. If we call it is still in his range and he will check river.
Originally posted by la55i
I'm still not convinced. What is the upside in shoving vs calling?
We get the correct odds to call and we can limit our losses to 80bb and keep villains range wider. Worse hands will give us free showdown and better hands will not fold to shove. I would agree that we are committed to call villains river shove if we had even 10% equity here, but since I believe we have 0% calling his shove would be suicide.I would agree with shove on the turn if we would have to call his river bet. This is 3bet pot and villain x/r flop, bet turn in this straighty flushy board. I think he will give us a free showdown even with sets but he will never fold those to our shove OTT.
So I would call and fold to a river bet rather than shove turn and see his flush/straigt/set with a hand that has 20% equity.
Am I completely wrong here?
Well with the $0.43 that you will save you can build a house, you know. 
Depends on the river card but you will have pot odds of 10-11% and you can talk yourself on calling on practically every river...
I think it is a decision we should make on turn.
I missed that QQ will have gutshot and especially QcQx will call here. So, if villain has that QQ in his calling range, we can shove here. I still think that we don't have to talk ourselves to call every river if we don't hit.
definetly an interesting hand now it seems. no united solution has been found... we may also not forget that we are talking nl2 right now, where some villain can really have almost anything in a 3bet /4bet pot even..
This isn't about committed or not. This is about NOT pushing the villain off some kind of dumb bluff or finding a strange fold with TPBK when you think he should be pot committed and call. Not all villains got the memo about pot odds. Or have you never seen a fish fold for his last blind at a 100+ blind pot? I have. Many times.
Even if you feel the villain can call with TP and a worst flush draw to our shove, why raise? What possible extra value are we getting for not seeing the river card first, in position? If we feel the need to get all in OTR we have that choice.
I find this very easy. By the appearance of the board, it is clear already on the flop that villain is either
If we decide to proceed on turn, then it is an elementary push, because we have decided that there is a fair enough chance that he is drawing.
This is absolutely not the scenario of "keeping in his bluffs". No way. The board texture and remaining stack sizes is not nearly of that type.
JJ, 99-88, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc
Here he is nutted or drawing. It is 16 combos. With this range he can call our shove.
I think he really can bet turn with all QQ and some KK (he might not 4bet all of them pre). So if we give him all QQ and half of the KK, we have 22 combos and 50% equity.
QQ and 3combos of KK is a big part of his range that doesn't have us nutted nor is drawing. This is not the scenario of keeping in his bluffs but rather a scenario where we want to keep 1/3 of his range which we beat at play.
Villain, by betting 0.89 and leaving behind 0.43 is more butted than drawing, however.
Lassi has it spot on. Why risk pushing out some of the range we beat when we can just call it down IP.
Okay, if villain is not going to play QQ,KK like this, even QcQx,KcKx, it means he is nutted against us. We would have 20% equity and this would be a fold OTT. If we don't want to fold, calling and folding river if we don't hit is better than pushing.
