AA faces PSB OTR on otherwise friendly board

You need to be right 33% of the time and vs TT-QQ,QJs(bluff),A9s,T9s,89s you have 69%. So easy call. He can also sometimes have KK/AA that did not 4bet.

Also you have to call this down since you checked on the turn -> he can be more inclined to bluff.

Do you have a read that he likes to bet/bluff when checked to or why did you check ott?

It is not an easy call.

I don't believe QQ/JJ would often play that way. What worse could call? AT? Or is he turning these (all 12 combos!) into bluffs? Sorry, but such range estimates are useless. Say he (or rather the average population) turns 1 or 2 such combos into bluffs. Now you get very different results in Equilab.

I'd fold. There are 9x in his range and I don't really find the PSB OTR very suspicious. Why leave, say, 25bb behind? It might just be bad turn sizing on his part. The only reason to call is that we might not have that many 9x in our range. It would make it a game theory call (we hold nu bluff catcher).

I think it is a mistake to relinquish initiative on turn if you don't have a plan. You should know beforehand if nut two pair is worth stacking off (easier said than done:D).

Checked the turn to allow a float. Villain is floaty (should have mentioned that in the original post).

I agree with you on the call. It's such a huge bet though.

I think I would find a call after we checked turn. I'm just wondering why he increased his betsize OTR.

I prefer folding than calling vs. PSB OTR.
Villain could have 9x in his calling range, something like A9s, or even T9s and this is too expensive price to check on it. Hero is deepstack so villain could have bluffs but I think river bet is value bet in this case.

I think that QQ-JJ, Tx will play different and not pot on river.
This leaves not much value hands that we beat. Fold is ok.

Hero made a bad call and villain showed 96s.

Interesting spot. What hands are you then calling otr when played like this(if you are folding Aces here)?

Trips+