Aussie musings

Ran into set over set deep at the felt. Angre face is angre.

Even maniacs get hands.

Of course I challenge anyone ever to fold in the spot I had, even if the loser would be tied up against a wall and shot. Or made to listen to Justin Beiber on repeat without being allowed to be shot?

JJ KJx flop, ez raise-shove flop IP. $700 pot (I was up and deep).

Would have been deeper but ran KK into a short stack's AA not long before.

Sat with 200, peaked at about 440, left with nothing. Le sigh. I was already counting out the 50s and planning to leave with them. Seeing the KK turned over was like being punched in the guts. It was a double brick runout so not even scared of some dumb gutshot. Victory-ripped the JJ turning it over. Was so stunned to see I was beat... lol!

When you've got that winning feeling but its kind of, just a feeling...

So I've made the shift back up to NL25 zoom full time. And its all roses and lollypops.

Well, it bloody well would be, if my bloody hands would bloody well bloody hold up. (My almost 4 year old daughter has picked up her first official curse word - the "bloody idiots on daddy cards made him cross again mummy")

Had a pearler of a session tonight. 2.5 hours played for a +EV of $95, and that was with a couple of river action suckouts that were just ridiculous. Two sets cracked in the space of a dozen hands, one by a gutshot + unders from KQ vs my set of aces, the other by a non-nut flush draw in a squeezed pot.

We just need to keep reminding ourselves that if the players who do these things didn't play, no one could be profitable.

Anyway I still posted a +40 session and took the BR to just a tick over $860. Week to date is at +149.85, 6 wins, one loss with a low volume of just 10k hands and a couple of stacks of EV in the hole. Not too shabby. If EV was square my BB/100 would be +7.56. You could live off that... if you didn't have a wife, kids and a mortgage...

Actually the week EV difference isn't that huge, but EV only tells half the story sometimes. You *know* when you are getting it in really good, despite what PT4 says. This week I've been getting it in really, really good. My leaktracker bellcurve is more than a full standard deviation of back luck for sets and below-average for straights and flushes, and I play a "make hands, get paid" style, so that bellcurve can be huge. Red line is still for crap, despite trying to take a few more bluff spots on and mostly succeeding this week.

I think the main problem now in my red line game may be my call-down ranges. I probably fold a little light (definitely for SH as I learned - my red line from last week's SH is horrific). Then again it is being able to make very thin laydowns that pumps a good blueline game, and I'm loath to tinker with a profitable gameplan again as that did cost me a break even month (that led to a frustration meltdown that led to a cash out and ragequit). The good news is the red line damage isn't AS bad as it used to be thanks to some good diamond content.

I also took a lot out of Weasel's check-raise video and feel like it has probably closed a sizable leak in my play, where I would turn draws that could make weak monsters into bluffs and call-along (or even fold!) hands that could make the total biscuits. Swapping that out (calling or folding the crap ones and bluffing with the nutguts) seems to be having a positive impact on my red line play.

Sets, sets, and no sets

Put in an overlong grind tonight to finish out my 10 stars steps promo. Getting the bottom of my loyalty level's coins - 250 - cost me the same in US dollars over about 11,000 hands.

I've never seen leaktracker's luck bell curve actually hit the far left corner before. That's where my sets finished up - you cant see a line. Its just a red blotch on the far left of the graph. My straights were "lucky" to balance, but hell I don't often play for straights. There is one straight in my top 10 wins for the night. Lucky my butt

Funnily enough the ones I did hit lost to four board straights, four board flushes, or were set under set. I lost to backdoor four high flushes (hey, that guy had backdoor idiot straight outs too), backdoored straights, and sets that got overrun by bigger sets. Kings into Aces vs looney toons. What a night.

The biggest losses of the session are enough to make me sick.

$35 set under set (flopped, AI flop)
$31 KsKc vs QcTc (T high spade suited flop, AI flop, T river)
$27 set under set (turned, flop paired board c-c, super deep, hero pot controlled)
$25 flush under flush (flopped, AI flop)
$24 top set vs nothing (4 high BDFD completes on river, AI turn, no other outs)
$19 AA vs straight (villain donks flop, calls 80% pot reraise, hits gutshot)
$19 JJ vs K2s (80-60-40 maniac, hits paired K board)
$17 set vs nutFD (backdoors a straight)
$17 AA vs 56o (flops full house on 655 board, such a great spot for hero with aces vs fish villain in big squeezed 3bet pot)
$17 flopped straight vs flush (villain cbets, hero pot reraises, villain calls, hero pots turn, villain calls, hits flush)
$15 AA vs TPTK (rivers boat after bottom pair pairs on the turn)
$12 top set vs bottom pair (BDFD)
$12 broadway vs 2nd pair TK (BDFD)

Top wins go flush, 2 pairs, one pair, set, one pair, straight, one pair, book (set), one pair (KK vs 58o).

When your wins are often "one pair" its been a pretty shitty night for flops.

I'll probably take a week off.

e

Week off? Bah

Good session to start the path to redemption. A more normal luck spread, with sets a little above normal and the other two about the same below. It shows how overly important sets are to getting paid at this limit when that equates to a +$93 session over 3000 hands.

Session review is all over that. Top wins are flopped set, flopped set, flopped set, preflop coinflip, flopped set.

Only major loss was with AA. What a hand. I'll even post it, its a sick one, sick move by the SB to hero-call a 4bet has the hero thinking "WTF can he even have?"

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 130.12 BB (VPIP: 19.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 111)
SB: 104.2 BB (VPIP: 14.08, PFR: 11.65, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 211)
BB: 113.92 BB (VPIP: 14.93, PFR: 10.07, 3Bet Preflop: 3.16, Hands: 271)
UTG: 98.6 BB (VPIP: 22.79, PFR: 0.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.60, Hands: 381)
UTG+1: 70.32 BB (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 66)
MP: 95.6 BB (VPIP: 17.09, PFR: 8.54, 3Bet Preflop: 1.22, Hands: 202)
Hero (MP+1): 196 BB
MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.12, PFR: 10.47, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 87)
CO: 123.04 BB (VPIP: 12.54, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 1.23, Hands: 605)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♣ A♠

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero raises to 24 BB, SB calls 15 BB

Flop: (49 BB, 2 players) Q♣ 2♠ J♥
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (49 BB, 2 players) 5♣
SB bets 23.4 BB, Hero calls 23.4 BB

River: (95.8 BB, 2 players) 6♥
SB bets 45.72 BB, Hero calls 45.72 BB

I should have cbet the flop, even against a continuing range of JJ+,AKs, and probably looked to jam it. It's hard not to play a bit nittier when you are coming off a 12 stack hiding two nights ago though!

Hi Jaissica,

any more badbeats this week? We were looking for your BR challenge report, but I only could see the runner-runner two pair again :-)

CU,SvenBe

Oh, nice blog! Shall follow

Originally posted by SvenBe
Hi Jaissica,

any more badbeats this week? We were looking for your BR challenge report, but I only could see the runner-runner two pair again

CU,SvenBe

Sorry Sven! I copped another monster belting on the 20th for a $200 tank, which drove me away for a that week break I spoke of, and missed an update in the process. Both updates are now on the forum, including the fact that my bankroll halved.

You know when you play and start seeing monsters under every bed? When you raise with AA and the first thought that goes through your head is "here is a chance to get stacked by a set"? It's best to get away, I think, when your thought processes are disaster driven.

Hi Vonki! Thanks! Yours too. Have been reading it lately (and even managed to accidentally post in it, one day, when the server was spewy )

Play it, Mr Toot

I've come to recognise my mood - and therefore, which game I am playing - in how I react to a big win.

Sometimes, a big pot win triggers an aggressive response towards the loser. The screen might see a middle finger and be told what the losing player might like to go do with himself. This is angry game. Angry game is far more aggressive, far more bluffy, slightly spewy, and very profitable when the running is good. Angry game has an 18-16-7-40 ish play style (full ring) - VPIP RFI 3B steal. Angry game can blow up though and is dangerous.

Other times - and this is polar opposites - it's happy dance. Happy dancing to Mr Toot. Seriously. When happy dance game is on its rocky, less aggressive, more fit or fold. Not as profitable but not as volatile. 12-10-3-20.

There was a time when I would try not to play angry game. But it's more profitable... when it doesn't explode like a bomb. How do you deal with your best game being your biggest leak?

In any case, tonight was a happy dance night. A small +$59 session pushed my bankroll back past it's previous maximum, before the mid February blowups! That's a $319 poker only gain since 25 Feb. I've even got some all-in EV back.

I'm such a fit or fold blue liner

Talk about a line of resistance. Just couldn't punch through all night until the end!

He Jaissica,

how about the resistance to blog :coolface:?
For the luck graph, I tend not to look at it - it may be true that you hit many sets, but what does it help when opponents fold to cbets in these spots?
So, the winrate is a better indicator.

CU (also in the BR-challenge report...),SvenBe

Eventually fixed my PC, but did withdraw my stars roll to pay it out. Left a $75 seed for when I do start again, again.

Have been busy with my new job and young family and not wanted the stress / anger of poker for the time being. My new job involves 7 weeks classroom training with regularly (twice weekly) assessments with a 90% pass bar, so it had to be a focus.

After you messaged me RE the bankroll challenge Sven I did log in and play for an afternoon on the weekend. Bankroll bounced from $75 to $240 on Zoom10 over about six hours.

I'll sort out where I stand for the bankroll challenge soon. I guess I have to start again from my $75.

no worries, looking forward to see you in the challenge again!

SvenBe!