AA - Raised on Flop

Originally posted by andiofwbafc

Originally posted by la55i
I would shove here. This is NL2, villain is shortstack and probably fish.

This range might be a bit wide, idk:

MP2 56.63% 56.00% 0.63% AdAs
MP3 43.37% 42.75% 0.63% QQ-TT, 88-77, 44, T9s, 87s, 65s, KsQs, KsJs, JsTs

So villain can imo raise with QQ-TT,sets, 2pair + some draws. We have over 50% if this is the case.

BTW you have a nut BDFD here also. Another reason to shove on top.

just couldn't do it because I was in a little downswing where the big hands had been getting cracked everytime.

This is definitely a mental leak you have to work on. Downswings happen but every single hand is different. You might have a long bad run but it doesn't mean that this hand will be the same.

Thanks for your thoughts Lassi.

The bit I have quoted in bold I must remember, it's definitely a mental leak as you say.

If you twist from your normal game and let downswings influance your decisions, then you have to work hard on your mental game.
I see, guys are suggesting you to read The Mental Game of Poker. Strongly recommend! You will see the game differently.

Originally posted by andiofwbafc

Originally posted by la55i
@andiofwbafc

Reading The Mental Game of Poker 1&2 helped me. There are also some videos and articles about mental game here at pokerstrategy.

Thankyou.

Now that you've had a chance to discuss the hand as I played it at the time (With no hud as it's Snap poker which doesn't allow it) I would like to post villians stats that I have in PT4.

BB: $1.91 (VPIP: 28.77, PFR: 19.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.20, Hands: 438)

Does this change your thoughts on anything?

Also there's a note made by PT4: [F] Raised Flop Cbet w/Overpair or less & no draw (1)

So he's raised my cbet before, small sample obviously, but if the hud was available at the time I would probably have shoved.

Now with that info our push is right. He has done that before with overpairs and we have the ultimate overpair...

Originally posted by andiofwbafc
haha, it continues:

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $6.12 (VPIP: 15.87, PFR: 10.32, 3Bet Preflop: 1.92, Hands: 132)
SB: $0.93 (VPIP: 41.18, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
BB: $0.86 (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 96)
UTG: $1.67 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: $2.56 (VPIP: 28.67, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 155)
Hero (CO): $2.38

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A♦ A♠

UTG raises to $0.05, fold, Hero raises to $0.18, fold, SB calls $0.17, fold, UTG calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.56, 3 players) 7♠ 4♦ K♠
SB checks, UTG bets $0.56, Hero calls $0.56, fold

Turn: ($1.68, 2 players) K♣
UTG bets $0.84, Hero raises to $1.64 and is all-in, UTG calls $0.09 and is all-in

River: ($3.54, 2 players) 2♣

UTG shows 9♥ K♥ (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 18%, Flop 18%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows A♦ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 82%, Turn 5%)
UTG wins $3.32

Knew I was beat when that King dropped on the turn.

Why do you raise then? Villain pot donks in a multiway pot on a Kxx dry flop. he either has a K or a set.
When the second K falls, he now has trips or FH.... do not put more money in.

Originally posted by andiofwbafc

Originally posted by la55i
Yup, we most likely are behind there. We play vs UTG opener in 3bet pot who donked pot size multiway. Looks scary. I really hate that second king there. Maybe it would have been better to fold OTT. I know folding AA is not easy. Still overfolding is not as big a leak at the micros than overcalling. If you are not sure if you should fold or call, fold should be fine in most cases.

Good things come to those who wait:

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $1.32
SB: $1.08 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 4)
BB: $1.00 (VPIP: 19.91, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 3.27, Hands: 686)
UTG: $1.10 (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: $5.24 (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: $0.44 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A♥ A♦

fold, MP raises to $0.07, CO raises to $0.16, Hero raises to $0.25, SB raises to $1.08 and is all-in, fold, MP calls $1.01, CO calls $0.28 and is all-in, Hero raises to $1.32 and is all-in, MP calls $0.24

Flop: ($4.18, 4 players) 5♣ 5♥ Q♣

Turn: ($4.18, 4 players) 6♥

River: ($4.18, 4 players) 4♣

Hero shows A♥ A♦ (Two Pair, Aces and Fives)

Main Pot [$1.78]: (Pre 78%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Side Pot#1 [$1.92]: (Pre 78%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Side Pot#2 [$0.48]: (Pre 79%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

SB shows K♥ K♣ (Two Pair, Kings and Fives)

Main Pot [$1.78]: (Pre 2%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
Side Pot#1 [$1.92]: (Pre 2%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)

MP shows 9♥ 9♠ (Two Pair, Nines and Fives)

Main Pot [$1.78]: (Pre 19%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#1 [$1.92]: (Pre 20%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#2 [$0.48]: (Pre 21%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

CO shows K♠ K♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Fives)

Main Pot [$1.78]: (Pre 1%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

Hero wins $1.67
Hero wins $1.80
Hero wins $0.45

Thankyou Mr Variance!:f_love:

Well, you have the srongest hand preflop and you should try to get it in right there. 4B bigger - to 2.5x at least. You can go even bigger.

Originally posted by andiofwbafc

Originally posted by la55i
Well that was nice Only thing I would change is your 4bet size. I would do it much bigger.

Yeah I know. My thought process was that I wanted to keep everybody in (which is never a good idea even with AA I know) but on this occasion it worked out, thankfully.
You have to remember this - your hand is strong preflop, but its equity lessens with every player that wants to join. The more villains, the more chance of someone catching a bigger hand postflop.
Do not fall for that - I want to keep them. You raise solid and who wants to come along, he will come...

vs 1 villain you have this:
MP2 83.07% 82.79% 0.28% AdAh
MP3 16.93% 16.65% 0.28% KK-88, AKs, AKo

vs 3 villains, your equity drops to this:
MP2 59.34% 59.07% 0.27% AdAh
MP3 13.55% 13.32% 0.23% KK-88, AKs, AKo
CO 13.55% 13.32% 0.23% KK-88, AKs, AKo
BU 13.55% 13.32% 0.23% KK-88, AKs, AKo

I don't believe so much in 65o. Yes villain gets good odds to call with basically anything but 65o is such a trash hand it wouldn't be profitable in the long run. So we cannot give full weight to that hand. Villain could easily raise with OEDS. If it is not T9s, it is at least Ts9s, Th9h. And OTF 2 guys fold already to our bet, I see no reason why he wouldn't raise with some flush draws.

Yes, villains range might be tighter than I presented and our equity drops but we don't need that 50% to shove profitably.

65o is too much, yes. I will rely on the note that he raises overpairs. We should use this.

Thanks for your detailed responses Nitrol, certainly some food for thought there.

You're welcome. Hope it was really of help.

can anybody of you guys discuss the pros and cons of calling vs shoving here please? nitrol lassi?

For me shove is right. Hero has a note that villain raises overpair. That is enough for us to shove, imo.

I guess we are talking about the first hand? I have already said why I like shove more:

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by marsa08
Call and see turn. You got the Ace of spade so you can also call spade turns.

If we do this the pot will be $2,17. Villain has $0.90 left. If he decides to shove on a non-spade turn, we would have to be right only 20% of the time to call it. Are we going to fold? Calling is ok too and it would work well if it kept villains range wider but I don't see him folding much if we shove. And I don't know if a spade turn is really what we want to see because villain could have a completed flush in that case. Imo shove is better option.

I believe the result will be the same. We are not going to fold on any turn card and our whole stack is going in either way. I don't see villain folding any of his draws or other weaker holdings, he is pretty much committed already.

Shove is easy, simple and very good option here. If we just call, we have to call villains shove OTT and if he checks we have to shove ourselves. So why not shove OTF? The worst play would be calling flop and then checking behind turn if villain checks. That way we let him see free river card with his draws and we have to fold to some river cards.