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NL20 Speed SH - KQs MP v BU - gutshot + FD

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muel294
Joined: 06.06.2009

OTF: Considered x/raising here to maximize fold equity vs A-hi and one pair type hands. Plus if villain calls F after the x/raise I might be able to pile it in OTT to get villain off TP or something.

Opted to just make a standard c-bet as I think this is in line with the way I would play the majority of my hands on this board. For example, if I have TP+. Plan was to play bet/3b OTF.

OTT: I think I can either barrel or x/c. In hindsight I think x/c is better because this turn doesn't really change much. I don't get many Jx to fold with a Turn barrel here (maybe JT). I think A-hi floats and pp less than TP might fold though. I would be more inclined to barrel on an Ax (or any of the cards that improve me).

As played....

OTR: don't think there's any point in barreling again. If he's called F and T then I think he most likely has TP or good draws. The only arguement for a bet here would be to get A♠:x:spade: to fold.

iPoker - €0.20 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 206 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 66.67, Hands: 7)
UTG: 124.2 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (MP): 104.95 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 34.18, PFR: 27.85, 3Bet Preflop: 11.43, Hands: 81)
BTN: 110.1 BB (VPIP: 25.42, PFR: 21.61, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 246)
SB: 120.8 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 11)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♠ Q♠

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) J♠ 9♠ 2♣
Hero bets 4.55 BB, BTN calls 4.55 BB

Turn: (15.6 BB, 2 players) 7♦
Hero bets 10.9 BB, BTN calls 10.9 BB

River: (37.4 BB, 2 players) 9♦
Hero checks, BTN checks

Spoiler

Hero mucks K♠ Q♠ (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 43%, Flop 56%, Turn 39%)
BTN shows A♠ J♦ (Two Pair, Jacks and Nines)
(Pre 57%, Flop 44%, Turn 61%)
BTN wins 35.55 BB


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23 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not mind the turn bet.
As played, villain is calling you 2 streets for a reason. He will not fold TPGK but all missed draws ...


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I like the way you played this. Turn bet is ok and OTR we can indeed give up.


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muel294
Joined: 06.06.2009

What's your opinion on x/raising the flop vs normal c-bet? I thought that x/raising might get more folds from Jx either on the flop or turn, although I think the problem with this line is that I never do it as a bluff also. So vs a thinking player I think c-betting maybe better.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You have 12 outs... K or Q may not be so. Flush is not to nut ... I prefer xc.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I wouldn't x/r this.

x/c or cbet.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I meant cbet flop.


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Tinsley15
Joined: 18.07.2013

why dont we barel river here?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

What will fold here on river?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Only missed draws will fold OTR and most of them fold already OTT. So no need to barrel river imo.


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Well played.

We can barrel river if villains wtsd % ks ~20


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by marsa08
Well played.

We can barrel river if villains wtsd % ks ~20

I think we cannot base our decision on wtsd.
Villain can go to showdown more in some boards and less in some other. In this board no draws complete and villain might be bluffcatching more than he would regularly. And our sample size is too small.

If we use wtsd, it should be "went to showdown when called flop and turn, no completed draws"


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by marsa08
Well played.

We can barrel river if villains wtsd % ks ~20

We cannot decide on stars only. Value hands will call us and trash will fold.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

BTW where did that 20% come from?


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Tinsley15
Joined: 18.07.2013

what would vilain call 3 streets vs utg opener? it looks like he is capped at TPGK/ draw that cant stand third bullet?

AA/KK raises pre
JJ/22 raises flop/turn
we block QQ.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Hero opens from MP. QQ is still possible. Top set might not raise OTF but yea OTT those should. AJ could bluffcatch.

Villain can have something that he can call with.


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muel294
Joined: 06.06.2009

I was thinking that the third bullet might work to get top pair to fold sometimes. It would be tough to call three streets with top pair, but I think at this limit most people will have a tough time time folding TPTK on this run out.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by Tinsley15
what would vilain call 3 streets vs utg opener? it looks like he is capped at TPGK/ draw that cant stand third bullet?

AA/KK raises pre
JJ/22 raises flop/turn
we block QQ.

Villain is not calling us with nothing. I am not ok to fold his air on river.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by muel294
I was thinking that the third bullet might work to get top pair to fold sometimes. It would be tough to call three streets with top pair, but I think at this limit most people will have a tough time time folding TPTK on this run out.

TPTK and TP2ndK are not folding. That is why we should not get river.


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Originally posted by la55i
BTW where did that 20% come from?

When some one goes to showdown ~20% they are folding too much.


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