NL20 Speed - 9Ts SB v BB

This is definitely a x/c. No matter if villain has bluffs or no.

Your raise is so huge that it is clear imo that you don't have required fold equity to make auto-profit. Then you have to figure out which hands villain will call with and what is your equity against that range. Your flush is not drawing to the nuts. These weaker draws I would x/c. You could x/r better draws but still that wouldn't be a x/r shove.

We may have 15 outs. Another flush card may kill the action.
It is ok as played.

Originally posted by la55i
This is definitely a x/c. No matter if villain has bluffs or no.

Your raise is so huge that it is clear imo that you don't have required fold equity to make auto-profit. Then you have to figure out which hands villain will call with and what is your equity against that range. Your flush is not drawing to the nuts. These weaker draws I would x/c. You could x/r better draws but still that wouldn't be a x/r shove.

We are not relying on FE , we have enough pot equity.
Maybe push is not best but just a solid raise will be better.

We have around 50%. Maybe this move is mathematically correct but I prefer x/c. This kind of coinflips will increase our variance and we will only be break even in the long run. If we x/c we have the chance to minimize our losses and maximize our winnings.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
This is definitely a x/c. No matter if villain has bluffs or no.

Your raise is so huge that it is clear imo that you don't have required fold equity to make auto-profit. Then you have to figure out which hands villain will call with and what is your equity against that range. Your flush is not drawing to the nuts. These weaker draws I would x/c. You could x/r better draws but still that wouldn't be a x/r shove.

We are not relying on FE , we have enough pot equity.
Maybe push is not best but just a solid raise will be better.

I don't like raise either. I would raise nut flush.

Originally posted by la55i
We have around 50%. Maybe this move is mathematically correct but I prefer x/c. This kind of coinflips will increase our variance and we will only be break even in the long run. If we x/c we have the chance to minimize our losses and maximize our winnings.

Either way is ok. I assume there are many action killers on turn.

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
This is definitely a x/c. No matter if villain has bluffs or no.

Your raise is so huge that it is clear imo that you don't have required fold equity to make auto-profit. Then you have to figure out which hands villain will call with and what is your equity against that range. Your flush is not drawing to the nuts. These weaker draws I would x/c. You could x/r better draws but still that wouldn't be a x/r shove.

We are not relying on FE , we have enough pot equity.
Maybe push is not best but just a solid raise will be better.

I don't like raise either. I would raise nut flush.

We can raise nut, weak... Here it is not only flush but sd too...

When we think of strength of a draw we should think how strong it is when we hit. If our flush is not good it reduces our straight outs too. But you are right, we have many outs here and both x/c and shove are ok. I just prefer x/c.

And I prefer raising.

Shoving on the flop is OK, but it is the high variance move.

I would raise to normal 3x and see what happens.

Yeah I totally agree with what everyone has said regarding my sizing on this one. I think that my line smacks of " I have a draw".

My main concern with a x/c line here is: upon hitting it's going to be a very scary board for villain. It's going to be hard for us to extract value unless we donk the turn or know villain is likely to bet a lot of turns regardless of our outs coming in and then we can x/raise or w/e.

If we x/raise to a normal sizing here:

- even against a conservative range that bet/calls a x/raise on the flop I think we have close to 50% equity

- we can rip almost any turn I think
- there will be more money in on the turn and villain may find it hard to fold

Have you thought about that if you x/r, no matter what size, villain is probably continuing with the same range and going all-in by the river. It is true that it might be hard to get value OOP if you hit but isn't little value better than 0 in the long run? Because in the long run this will be +- 0 EV.

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Preflop is fine.I'd rather do a normal raise than a shove. Your hand is fine for a raise on the flop and shove turn or bet/call flop.

Both can be ok moves. If we are going to shove I would do it OTF. We don't have fold equity so only difference is that we can't shove turn if board pairs. And the chance we hit just got smaller.

Originally posted by la55i
Have you thought about that if you x/r, no matter what size, villain is probably continuing with the same range and going all-in by the river. It is true that it might be hard to get value OOP if you hit but isn't little value better than 0 in the long run? Because in the long run this will be +- 0 EV.

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Shove is best. We have 50% equity and evade further play.

Originally posted by la55i
Both can be ok moves. If we are going to shove I would do it OTF. We don't have fold equity so only difference is that we can't shove turn if board pairs. And the chance we hit just got smaller.

On flop with a shove you guarantee yourself to see both turn and river and give yourself a chance to realize that equity.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
Have you thought about that if you x/r, no matter what size, villain is probably continuing with the same range and going all-in by the river. It is true that it might be hard to get value OOP if you hit but isn't little value better than 0 in the long run? Because in the long run this will be +- 0 EV.

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Shove is best. We have 50% equity and evade further play.

To me 50% equity means break even. It is ok but I want to make money. I believe we could turn this to more +EV if we play postflop well.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
Both can be ok moves. If we are going to shove I would do it OTF. We don't have fold equity so only difference is that we can't shove turn if board pairs. And the chance we hit just got smaller.

On flop with a shove you guarantee yourself to see both turn and river and give yourself a chance to realize that equity.

That is basically what I just said. It that post was unclear I said it in my previous post too:

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
Have you thought about that if you x/r, no matter what size, villain is probably continuing with the same range and going all-in by the river. It is true that it might be hard to get value OOP if you hit but isn't little value better than 0 in the long run? Because in the long run this will be +- 0 EV.

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Shove is best. We have 50% equity and evade further play.

To me 50% equity means break even. It is ok but I want to make money. I believe we could turn this to more +EV if we play postflop well.

With 28BB already in the pot 50% is fair enough to push.