NL20 Speed - 9Ts SB v BB

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
Both can be ok moves. If we are going to shove I would do it OTF. We don't have fold equity so only difference is that we can't shove turn if board pairs. And the chance we hit just got smaller.

On flop with a shove you guarantee yourself to see both turn and river and give yourself a chance to realize that equity.

That is basically what I just said. It that post was unclear I said it in my previous post too:

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Really?

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
Both can be ok moves. If we are going to shove I would do it OTF. We don't have fold equity so only difference is that we can't shove turn if board pairs. And the chance we hit just got smaller.

On flop with a shove you guarantee yourself to see both turn and river and give yourself a chance to realize that equity.

That is basically what I just said. It that post was unclear I said it in my previous post too:

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Really?

??

Well I said that if we go to turn, the chance we hit gets smaller. And in my earlier post I said that if we go to turn and it is blank our equity drops to 31%.
To me it is the same than if we shove otf we see both cards (better chance) and have more equity.

Read it carefully.

I did. I said that a bit differently but ultimately you wrote what I meant with my post. If I'm missing something, could you point it to me?

You said that both are ok moves. I listed the advantages of my choice...
IT IS WAY DIFFERENT.

Well OTT there is more money on the pot and less behind = we need less equity. Mathematically I think it is the same, didn't calculate that. Then I said that I prefer shoving on the flop and told why. I said if we go to turn the chance we hit gets lower and equity drops which is basically the same reasons you listed.

Or at least I meant to say exactly what you said because I think the same way.

Well, I am glad we think the same.

I'd make a normal raise. I'd naturally call an AI. On turn, you move AI regardless of what hits. Yes, there is FE. There always is.

Maybe small but there is...

Originally posted by nitrol
Maybe small but there is...
No, its is big. Some players actually respect a check-raise followed up by an AI. Any reasonable player (you and me as well) should be thinking about ditching a large portion of overpairs. If he folds Q high or 99 - it is still FE because we hold T high.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Any reasonable player (you and me as well) ...

Oh, thank you, Sir.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by YohanN7
Any reasonable player (you and me as well) ...

Oh, thank you, Sir.
Note I didn't say we are decent players, just that we'd do the same...♦

That's what I meant.

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by YohanN7
Any reasonable player (you and me as well) ...

Oh, thank you, Sir.
Note I didn't say we are decent players, just that we'd do the same...:D

It is good that you think i will do the same...

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
Have you thought about that if you x/r, no matter what size, villain is probably continuing with the same range and going all-in by the river. It is true that it might be hard to get value OOP if you hit but isn't little value better than 0 in the long run? Because in the long run this will be +- 0 EV.

BTW if you x/r flop normal size and jam turn, your equity drops. If turn is a blank you have only 31%.

Shove is best. We have 50% equity and evade further play.

To me 50% equity means break even. It is ok but I want to make money. I believe we could turn this to more +EV if we play postflop well.

Just regarding this point. Yes it is probably break even just based off our equity, maybe even slightly losing if we factor in rake?

However, doesn't our FE* factor into this?

Villain will sometimes fold the flop, right?

I agree if he calls OTF then he is LESS likely to fold OTT (maybe never). But this is why I think this is villain dependent and depends on villains preflop range and postflop bluffing frequency.

For example, if he 3b's us wider preflop and bet/folds the flop and decent amount of time then it should be a profitable x/shove or x/raise-broke line, shouldn't it?

If he 3b's us preflop predominantly (or exclusively) for value then we have no FE* postflop, therefore x/raising doesn't make sense b/c it will be a breakeven play in the long run, therefore x/c is better.

This was my original point. Or do you think this is still irrelevant?

P.S thanks for the amazing input from everyone thus far.:f_thumbsup::f_thumbsup:

Yes we have some fold equity but the bigger our sizing is the greater risk we take. If you shove here you will get a lot of folds but the times you get called you will face nut flush draws and sets that can improve to full houses. In that case your equity drops. With this draw I would like to keep villains range wide. That is why I suggested x/c in the first place.

For some reason it is hard to remember this discussion properly at the moment. I have to get back to this tomorrow ♦

We have E, We have over 50% equity and there is nothing to discuss more - we should raise.

If you shove here you will get a lot of folds but the times you get called you will face nut flush draws and sets that can improve to full houses.

Good point. Tend to ISO ourselves vs better w/ callled.

For some reason it is hard to remember this discussion properly at the moment. I have to get back to this tomorrow

I think that is due to the length of this thread.

Originally posted by muel294

Good point. Tend to ISO ourselves vs better w/ callled.

Lol, you are wrong here.