JJ 3-bet pot

I still would bet. I don't think villain was calling a 3B with Ax.
As played, thin value bet and fold vs aggression.

Xf. He has Ax there.

But isn't x/f to weak?
His range is (usually): 77-JJ, Ad9d-AdQd, and a few busted FD KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd.
So he has 26 combos of pp, 4 combos w Ax (maybe 6, maybe 7... but it is about 15-20% od his range) and a few combos of busted FD.

Of course we can assume that he won't bet his pp, because he has SDV, but from time to time he can also use this card to bluff us with his lower pp or busted FD and make us with better hand to fold.

Nitrol how could be so sure? I belive he is on a draw. Check/call is better than bet because you give him the opportunity to bluff you with busted draws.

Originally posted by nitrol
Xf. He has Ax there.

Great analysis ♠_ugly:

On the river I would give Villain a range something like this:

Board: 6♦4♥5♦ 2♥ A♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    77.88%  76.92%   0.96% { JhJc }
MP3    22.12%  21.15%   0.96% { JJ-77, A3s, 76s, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d }

There are a LOT of combos involved.

How did the river go btw? Did you check and he bet? That would be important to know because we need pot odds to draw any valid conclusions.

Anyways, let's say he will bet all his busted draws on the river. We can't say for sure that he would bet a weak Ax here. Maybe he does it to 50%. Usually monsters (sets and straights) would raise the turn, therefore I put them out of the range. But let's say he would bet ALL his Ax on the river:

Board: 6♦4♥5♦ 2♥ A♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    59.26%  59.26%   0.00% { JhJc }
MP3    40.74%  40.74%   0.00% { A3s, 76s, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d }

We actually have a x/c because a lot of diamond draws also bust.

Another scenario:
Villain plays his strong hands slow as well and straights and sets are included in his river betting range as well:

Board: 6♦4♥5♦ 2♥ A♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    34.78%  34.78%   0.00% { JhJc }
MP3    65.22%  65.22%   0.00% { 66-33, A3s, 87s, 76s, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d }

Still a call vs. a potsize bet

Well, if you assume villain is over-bluffing horrendously, then that is the result you get. You could also go by the other standard assumption ("they always have it here") and get an equally clear fold. Using game theory (which totally ignores what villain is up to), you'd surely fold to a pot bet. This is a strategy that can't hurt you, it just fails to exploit certain opponent tendencies to a maximum.

Originally posted by LuckyLucianooo
Nitrol how could be so sure? I belive he is on a draw. Check/call is better than bet because you give him the opportunity to bluff you with busted draws.

Missed draws are not betting probably.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by LuckyLucianooo
Nitrol how could be so sure? I belive he is on a draw. Check/call is better than bet because you give him the opportunity to bluff you with busted draws.

Missed draws are not betting probably.

MisterSnS does certainly not agree. I look forward to a heated debate, and I promise I'll keep out=)

Originally posted by MisterSnS

Originally posted by nitrol
Xf. He has Ax there.

Great analysis ♠_ugly:

On the river I would give Villain a range something like this:

Board: 6♦4♥5♦ 2♥ A♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    77.88%  76.92%   0.96% { JhJc }
MP3    22.12%  21.15%   0.96% { JJ-77, A3s, 76s, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d }

There are a LOT of combos involved.

How did the river go btw? Did you check and he bet? That would be important to know because we need pot odds to draw any valid conclusions.

Anyways, let's say he will bet all his busted draws on the river. We can't say for sure that he would bet a weak Ax here. Maybe he does it to 50%. Usually monsters (sets and straights) would raise the turn, therefore I put them out of the range. But let's say he would bet ALL his Ax on the river:

Board: 6♦4♥5♦ 2♥ A♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    59.26%  59.26%   0.00% { JhJc }
MP3    40.74%  40.74%   0.00% { A3s, 76s, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d }

We actually have a x/c because a lot of diamond draws also bust.

Another scenario:
Villain plays his strong hands slow as well and straights and sets are included in his river betting range as well:

Board: 6♦4♥5♦ 2♥ A♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    34.78%  34.78%   0.00% { JhJc }
MP3    65.22%  65.22%   0.00% { 66-33, A3s, 87s, 76s, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad2d }

Still a call vs. a potsize bet

We cannot be sure he is betting his missed draws. All or just a portion.
In general villains are pretty honest on micro limits.
I prefer xf in such cases.

Well, I decided to bet there really thin (like 28%) and villain's folded.

You're playing FAST.
Hero is in the small blind. He didn't fastfold.
Hero has 127bb. Villain has him covered.
Villain must know that Hero has at least a playable hand. Villain calls Hero's reraise (5.6bb or less than 3.5x the raise). Villain has been given the implied odds to call even with a low pocket pair.

IMO Hero should want to get it in before the flop so being OOP I would have reraised here 4 or 5 times the raise.

Originally posted by mistralx
Well, I decided to bet there really thin (like 28%) and villain's folded.

This is probably the right play - at least the easy play. Especially so since it seems like people have too many preconceptions about villain's bluffing tendencies (some say 0%, others say 100%). Betting small is avoiding misjudgment OTR, and cannot be far from some possible optimal check-calling strategy.

Originally posted by wimNP
You're playing FAST.
Hero is in the small blind. He didn't fastfold.
Hero has 127bb. Villain has him covered.
Villain must know that Hero has at least a playable hand. Villain calls Hero's reraise (5.6bb or less than 3.5x the raise). Villain has been given the implied odds to call even with a low pocket pair.

IMO Hero should want to get it in before the flop so being OOP I would have reraised here 4 or 5 times the raise.

I must confess that I have never noticed any difference if it's about 3bet sizing on these positions. It really doesn't matter if I 3-bet std. steal (2,5bb) to 8 or 10 bb. People play with their ranges, they don't adjust on NL5 (i mean if he wants to call 66 he will do it anyway).
I re-raise always to 8bb if BU opens for 2 or 2,5bb (when 3bb, then 9 or 10 bbs). It doesn't matter if I have value hand or bluffs (by bluffs I understand hands like A5s, KTs etc.) and I think it is a pretty standard.