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Was she bluffing? Poll is created on Jun 24, 2016

  
  

Guess courtiebee's hand and get rewarded!

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KTU
KTU
Joined: 24.01.2007

Guess courtiebee's hand and get rewarded!

Hey guys,

What is courtiebee (Who is that?) holding here? If you think you know, then have a go at our little promotion. Maybe Courtney will give you some hints during her stream on the 27th :) Just guess her hand in this thread!

To be won
• correct hand & correct suits: Status +2 Upgrade (for one month)
• correct hand: Satus Upgrade (for one month)

+ Diamond Status for the best analysis of this situation

Results will be published Tuesday the 28th June

The hand - She bet the flop, checked the turn and fires the river again

Spoiler

MP1: t90782 M = 28.82
MP2: t39228 M = 12.45
CO: t31487 M = 10.00
BTN: t43284 M = 13.74
SB: t85109 M = 27.02
BB: t44082 M = 13.99
courtiebee (UTG): t29349 M = 9.32
UTG+1: t20782 M = 6.60
UTG+2: t21044 M = 6.68

Pre Flop: (t3150) Hero is UTG with :censored:
courtiebee raises to t2558, 3 folds, MP2 calls t2558, 4 folds

Flop: (t8266) T♠ J♥ 7♥ (2 players)
courtiebee bets t4133, MP2 calls t4133

Turn: (t16532) T♣ (2 players)
courtiebee checks, MP2 checks

River: (t16532) 6♦ (2 players)
courtiebee bets t8266, MP2 calls t8266


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20 replies
rompas
Joined: 12.02.2014

who will go ahead and make the first guess? :f_wink:


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UPAY4DINNER
Joined: 28.09.2009

K♥:K♦:


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rompas
Joined: 12.02.2014

nobody wants to win? :f_ugly:


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ATs of hearts


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KQ


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KK


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Ah Kh


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metalmonkey80
Joined: 15.08.2013

When courtie raises UTG this late in the tournament she reps something like:
{44+, A8s+, ATo+, QTs+, QJo+, K9s+, KJo+} along with some suited connectors every now and then.

She could lead the flop with pretty much any two hearts, a set for protection on a fairly wet board, a J or 2 pair, or a T with backdoor spades and potential other draws and of course overpairs. Our range now is:
{77, TT++, KQs, KJ/QJ/JT, Axs (hearts or spades) }. T7s or T8s and other smaller SC-type hands are unlikely here because of the UTG open.

After villain calls the half pot bet, courtie opts to check the turn. Villain can be calling with a heart draw, a T, or a J here. Thus, when courtie checks the turn, she has either improved dramatically or is attempting to pot control versus the occasional T in villain's range. However, if she had an overpair here like KK/AA, two pair, or top pair with a strong kicker, she would definitely bet to force a flush/straight draw to pay and/or get value off of a J. She knows that villain does not have many Ts in this position and therefore the check is either a strong hand or with intention of check-calling a bet w/ a draw, or just giving up on an Ax/missed backdoors and small draws to a big bet. She probably bets most of her higher J hands as well, although she may pot control this as she only really beats draws with KJ/QJ now.
{77, TT, JJ, KQ hearts, maybe KJ/QJ, Ax (hearts and A of spades)}

The turn changes essentially nothing for courtie, so after villain checks behind the turn, she knows he missed a lot of his draws. He would most likely bet a T on the turn so she knows he probably is not holding a Tx hand. She would assume that he bets a J for value so I do not think she puts villain on a strong J. She might put him on a pair like 88/99. He could also have slowplayed a monster but that is a but less likely. Thus, when she bets, she is either better a monster for value against a smaller hand, or trying to push villain off a mid pair type hand with a busted draw. She probably checks smaller jacks or pairs.

My best guess here is that she fires on Axs (hearts)/KQs (hearts) or 77/TT (with TT being way less likely obvs). Since someone already said KQ^, let's go with 77 (spade, heart?) (Also, I just do not think she checks turn that often with something like KQ of hearts, so many outs, so I feel she is usually much stronger or weaker here).


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Opening range preflop:
77+, AQo+,JTs+,T9s,98s...maybe J9s and also A5s if she was Doug Polk

after the flop:

I do think she bets trips, the board is not that scary yet.

Value: Any J, Two pair or Overpair: 77 JJ TT QQ KK AA JTs QJs KJs AJs (J9s) 98s

Semibluff: any Overcards/OESD/FD/combo : KQs AKo AKs AQs AQo 99 88 Th9h

Check: T9s TQs KTs ATs

Range:
77 JJ TT QQ KK AA JTs QJs KJs AJs (J9s) KQs AKo AKs AQs AQo 99 88 Th9h

After the turn:

what Value/Semibluff hands just became nuts or middle of the pack

Monster: JJ 77 JT are now a full house TT are absolute nuts, still have the strait with 98s
Medium hands: top pairs, could be beat by any T now, and a middle pair can call the flop bet for 3:1 when still that deep

QJs KJs AJs (J9s)

I think she bets the combo draws again QhKh QhAh KhAh
the rest Im not sure about ( would love feedback on what is good/bad play here I am really confused)

Range:
JJ 77 JT TT 98s Th9h for trapping
KQs AKo AKs AQo 99 88 QQ KK AA QJs KJs AJs (J9s)

River:
MP3 checked behind so maybe he didnt hit his trips

she can bet

for value: JJ 77 JT TT 98s Th9h, maybe QQ KK AA AJs

bluffs: KQs AKo AKs AQo 99 88

medium hands: QJs KJs

I think she is not bluffing here, really scary spot for AJ here, basically a bluffcatcher. Fold. (#foldpre /r/pokercirclejerk)

I bet there are many mistakes in this, please feel free to point out the most obvious ones. My guess for her hand is

JsJc


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QQ


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ElDiablo648
Joined: 23.12.2013

KT easy


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niekadanelaimiu
Joined: 06.10.2010

Kh Kc


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pluto7
Joined: 24.10.2012

Sad, that we don't know anything about villain. She could have AK,AQ,AJ,AT,JJ,TT,77,99,88,KQ,AA,KK and QQ.
As played I don't think she has AK,AQ,88,99,KQ on this board. As said to often called on this board texture on the river for a bluff. Maybe AJ, but blocked by villain and less likely, but possible. Also possible AhTh.
Maybe 77, JJ or TT. But would she stop betting on such a turn card on that board texture? Maybe, we don't know, because we don't know anything about this villain. AA,KK and QQ possible.
I say KhKc.


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M1rCea
Joined: 06.07.2010

Going for the old AA with no flushdraw blockers, soo let's say AdAc.

As for reasoning, flop pretty straightforward value bet, although we can check sometimes because flop hits MP range pretty well, he has JJ, TT easily preflop.
turn hits villain's range better than ours so we have to check quite a bit of our range on this turn. Doing this with AA makes sense because we block AJ that may call us down so less likely he has that, we don't block his bluffs, like KQs, FD's so it's more likely he has those, and AA doesn't need much protection on this board so a checkback wouldn't be that harmful for our hand.

River: easy value bet, we're only behind slowplayed FH/Quads which should be pretty rare.

there u go with some strat talk
peace out


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JustinDejong
Joined: 08.11.2006

i ll go with 66


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pianist8716
Joined: 12.01.2014

I think it's A7h.


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KTU
KTU
Joined: 24.01.2007

And the winner is ...

She had Q♣:Q♠: and therefore the winners is:
Nurlanbai
Congratulations you had the precise read and that is rewarded with Silver status!

The diamond status for the best analysis was very hard as everyone did a great job. Thank you so much guys!
The winner here is M1rCea. Congratulations and have fun with our Diamond status!

I think one of the main points of checking the turn and betting the river again is that it is the only way to get payoff from pairs like 88,99 and is unlikely to get a three street payoff from hands like KJs as we are openraising from UTG and will be perceived quite strong. So I think it is a good decision to go for two valuebets and make it as easy as possible for our opponent to call us down. I think her line has the same EV against KJ, AJ as betting the flop but pairs are more likely to bluffcatch the river.


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