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My All-In Equity graph is freaking me out!

 
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Last Post by luckydont 10 years ago
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DevilDonk
DevilDonk
Joined: 26.03.2009
Posts: 20
18.10.2016, 09:42

Hi everyone,

Judging by my all-in equity graph i am running super hot. But i don't really understand how its possible that my winnings are so much bigger.

I understand that the sample size is low and that this can be a result of kind variance but I have a feeling i am playing solid tight poker and am beating the NL10 quite easily. I am ahead in all-in situations 90% of the time. I have been holding my advantage in all-in pots pretty well to the river thorough the entire sample of hands here but i wouldn't say that i am running as hot as the graph suggests.

How come my all-in equity is so low?
Should i be scared of an inevitable downswing?
Is there a possibility that the equity calculated is wrong?
Should i quit while i am ahead or should i continue with playing poker?


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8 replies
la55i
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013
Posts: 8,896
18.10.2016, 10:06

Hi DevilDonk,

I wouldn't look at All-in EV too much.
If you win villains whole stack in a pot where you have only 70% equity, your total winnings will go higher than your AI EV because on the long run you will win only 70% of that pot. You have just been lucky and chose your spots correctly.

Good runs happen as well as bad runs. At the moment I'm running 1000bb under EV in similar sample size. But that doesn't mean you would hit a bad run soon. So just keep on playing and be happy :)

Regards,
la55i


Blog :spade: Private Coaching :spade: Website

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msnek
msnek
Joined: 01.10.2008
Posts: 296
18.10.2016, 12:49

Don't bother much about it. And when you investigate it anyway, take a look to spots where u go allin preflop only.

Note: Yea, pretty much anything can be due to variance. Just focus on learning, hand history, mind set, doing good decisions. That's all u need :)

If you want to investigate your graphs to determine what is done by variance and what is due to your own mistakes which u haven't spoted yet .. do so after big sample (at least 120k hands).


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Maniatrix
Maniatrix
Joined: 01.11.2008
Posts: 674
18.10.2016, 23:36

All in equity doesn't really tell the whole story anyway, 90% of the money could have gotten in while you were ahead but then the opponent sucks out and the rest goes in. There should be an option for "money in" equity instead.


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Konkronus
Konkronus
Joined: 23.03.2015
Posts: 1,647
19.10.2016, 02:00

Originally posted by Maniatrix
All in equity doesn't really tell the whole story anyway, 90% of the money could have gotten in while you were ahead but then the opponent sucks out and the rest goes in. There should be an option for "money in" equity instead.

+1 for this one. I have been waiting for a stat like that for ages. It reflects the skill and how you run much better than just the AI EV.


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nsavov
nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010
Posts: 1,344
19.10.2016, 08:05

Soooo, you are the guy that I keep losing with my Aces to. :roto2:


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DevilDonk
DevilDonk
Joined: 26.03.2009
Posts: 20
19.10.2016, 10:04

If you ship the stack when i hit a set, then yes. xD


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luckydont
luckydont
Joined: 05.08.2008
Posts: 54
29.12.2016, 11:20

Originally posted by msnek
Note: Yea, pretty much anything can be due to variance. Just focus on learning, hand history, mind set, doing good decisions. That's all u need :)

Agree here. Nothing you can do about the Variance. It's like a rain, if it comes - it comes. All you can do is take an umbrella to protect from being wet. Analogy for Variance - you need strong mind to protect yourself from various forms if tilt. e.g. "Running bad tilt" and "Running good tilt".
And keep playing your A-game as much as possible.


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