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Bubble with premium hand

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Tim128
Joined: 29.01.2017

PokerStars - 400/800 Ante 65 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 9.31 BB (VPIP: 32.26, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 31)
UTG+1: 29.3 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP: 30.22 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 21)
MP+1: 39.69 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+2: 38.28 BB (VPIP: 25.58, PFR: 2.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
CO: 14.86 BB (VPIP: 34.15, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 42)
BTN: 16.12 BB (VPIP: 37.21, PFR: 3.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 87)
Hero (SB): 16.44 BB
BB: 25.44 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 5.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 87)

9 players post ante of 0.08 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.23 BB) Hero has K♣ A♣

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2.21 BB, MP calls 2.21 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2.21 BB, fold, HERO ???

I recently started playing tournaments so the part I struggle the most with so far is the bubble. Oftentimes I don't know how much I should factor the ICM in....

This hand was at the bubble (2 or 3 people out of 670 needed to bust to get in the money), with QQ+ I would happily shove here. With AKs I don't like all my options, when I shove I think I will get called fairly often since I will shove in 4 people that showed interest in the pot and I think that when called I will be either flipping or a 60% favourite, however there also will be a around 35-40% chance that I will be the bubble boy and I found it hard to factor those two against each other at the time.

I don't like flatting either, as I will miss a lot of flops and the pot will be about the size of my stack.

I also don't like folding as the hand is too strong.


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9 replies
pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

so when u jam over 4 players which are in the pot it should look even for the biggest punter somewhat strong esp. on bubble.

i would with out a seccond thought shove this...i dont hesitate with 16 BB and AKs while no 3bets in front only calls...if somebody got KK fine, next mtt.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

AKs is for me an easy 3bet shove. Especially if this a ITM bubble when you risk to don’t get a min cash only and you could add more than 50% of your stack if everyone is folding and against the calling ranges you are in front as well.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Jaunais
Joined: 24.01.2014

Getting into ICM is very important in any itm, i would be a millionaire if i can get to first ITM in every MTT i play so dont say its not important.
Current spot mostly depends on open raiser - if he is good reg he's aware of ICM factors and could open/fold for example hand like 66 but if its a fish he will def call and you flip against his pair which is ICM disaster so just make your decisions based on opp skill level. as better op as wider you can push those bubble spots


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tmannie
Joined: 09.06.2009

A shove is good , AKs is worth shoving, but call fold is also possible . As was said earlier if you have reads on your opponent take that into consideration.
tmannie


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by Jaunais
Getting into ICM is very important in any itm, i would be a millionaire if i can get to first ITM in every MTT i play so dont say its not important.
Current spot mostly depends on open raiser - if he is good reg he's aware of ICM factors and could open/fold for example hand like 66 but if its a fish he will def call and you flip against his pair which is ICM disaster so just make your decisions based on opp skill level. as better op as wider you can push those bubble spots

The first sentence looks messy, but I think it’s more important to have a good chance to get a lot deeper in the tournament than losing a min cash.


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ggeshov
Joined: 25.12.2010

For me this is an easy 3bet shove. I prefer to increase my chances to finish in the top places, rather than increaese my chances for a min-cash by folding a premuim hand like AKs. 2nd factor is that on the bubble there are many plrs who realize.that they can apply a lot of pressure by simply min-raising. So when 2plrs call the original bet and.then you shove, it looks so much stronger + the original raiser has to worry if the other plrs will call your shove too. Imo in most cases everybody will fold and u will increase your stack by 50% and if it happens that someone calls it wil be the original raiser and you will have great odds to double up with AKs and better chances to fight for top places. Kr.


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Tim128
Joined: 29.01.2017

Okay thanks for all your advices, what I ended up doing was a fold as my table was really weak and I didn't think that they would understand ICM and therefore be happily calling any pair (especially the co callers), so I'd prefer something like TT over AKs in this spot.

But it seems like the common opinion here is to shove this so I would increase my chances of final tabling, which seems reasonable. I think I felt too much pressure and I was too scared that opponents were bad and would be calling too much.

Thanks all! (Btw I ended up min-cashing...)


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pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

Originally posted by Tim128
so I'd prefer something like TT over AKs in this spot.(1)

But it seems like the common opinion here is to shove this so I would increase my chances of final tabling, which seems reasonable(2). I think I felt too much pressure and I was too scared that opponents were bad and would be calling too much.(3)

Thanks all! (Btw I ended up min-cashing...)

(1) sure i also...
(2)i think its better to bust 55% of the time and getting 45% a good chance to trippel the buy in at least...but depends...i think if u take a shot its better to get safe itm

additionally this is over 600 guys itm so if u had shoved and lost i think u would have itm anyways...bec there is a great chance there are bubbeling two same time with less chips....


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pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

"scared money dont make money" ...."real g´s do what they want never think twice"....Wiz Kahlifa- Elevated


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