Tim, thx for the input in the other hands,
my 1st intuition vs 70/10 plr 2way would be to bet 1/2, but lets look at some juice RD numbers for the range:
he has 2p+ 11% , gutter+ (somebacdoors) 23% and any A 10% of times. i dont think he s folding any of that, so thats 44% of his range we are getting value w 90% equity, but imo at least 70% of that range is not betting when xto. so we get extra value of a bet of 5bb from 0.7*0.44range ; 0.9eq, so from 30% of hands we lose abt 4.5bb when we x compared to bet otf 5bb there. 1.35bb/100
but then theres 38% of his range which has only 7-Q (-cumulative from RD) pair that would almost always fold to any bet and that will hit 2pair a bit over 20% of turns, where we get presumably abt 15bb more in avg than if we would bet F. so here we abt 8% of times get 15bb ; 1,2bb/100
then there are several bacdoor options which is going to both, give us some T added value and lose us some R value when he hits. given he s passive and should not be tricky to play against, i presume this might be to our benefit 'a bit' actually.
not sure i weighed in all relevent factors, but it seems to me it might actually be kinda close. if he doesnt fold any gutter or A to 2/3 betsize, i d go for that tho. then the EV of betting imo must be bigger than checking.
i d check more vs someone agro and try to go for T xr just coz those types generally like to spew big on later streets as well where the value of x/r T vs his 20-30% equity would be huge. but vs this plr i dont expect to get that
