Facing overbet with Jacks.

Without seeing the spoiler. I probably would have called. He's that aggro 'short stacked' fish type but that does not mean he can not slowplay A5 here. What makes me call is he checks a draw heavy board.

Edit: But why did you not conti bet? You also have to protect a hand.

We need 35-40% equity to call. Sure villain can ship 99,TT here but he can also slowplay QQ+ pre and there are some sets and straights. So just open Equilab and put him on a range and see how much equity you have

One thing we have to also consider is that MP is still in the game. The board is not very dangerous considering it is a 3bet pot, especially if he happens to block some flush draws. That means he can check that flop with hands that crush us. He still has QQ+,A5s,As4s etc in his range.

But why did you not conti bet? You also have to protect a hand.

We just called the 3bet, we don't have initiative anymore, so we can't cbet. Betting here would be leading, aka donking.
When we consider villains ranges, mostly MP vs UTG 3betting range, I see very little reason to go crazy with JJ here.

1) It's a re-raised pot
2) It is multiway

These two facts together will not let Villain have any bluffs on the turn. This is always a made hand. We beat 99-TT (that he COULD play like this for sure), but there are probably way more QQ and sets in his range which would make me believe we can do a tight fold here.

I will fold. There is two big problems. If SB have bluffs, he will have good equity with this hands. Yeah, with some hands , like 77, 99 and TT, he is dead. But there is many hands with very good equity. FD with over-cards. Gut-shot with over-cards. Plus the value, sets and two pairs. And slow played monster hands. Ok, we can call obv. But the MP? Some players have small pocket pairs for 3bet vs Utg. Also 65s, A5s. And check back is possible, will be dumb, yeah, bet they do that. He can have also FD with over-cards + gut-shot. Also very rare they will do that with over-pair. Many "if, if"... I don't like that. But that's just me....
Pre-flop you call for "set mining " with "options". If everything is good for us, we can play aggressively some time or catch a bluff. If you don't like 4bet pre-flop, this hand is already a pocket pair. Nothing more.

Originally posted by la55i

But why did you not conti bet? You also have to protect a hand.

We just called the 3bet, we don't have initiative anymore, so we can't cbet. Betting here would be leading, aka donking.
When we consider villains ranges, mostly MP vs UTG 3betting range, I see very little reason to go crazy with JJ here.

Villain has a 44/37/25! stats (yes I know only 28 hands but that still means 9 out of 10 aggro tard) so I think his 3 bet is not worth so much.

Playing aggro tards is kind of difficult. Tighten up but you can not with JJ here I think

Hmm I just played 100 hands with over 10% smaller VPIP than I play on the long run. I guess I'm 10/10 nit.

Really you need over 100 hands to get an accurate idea of villains true VPIP/PFR.. You can make guesses based on a smaller sample. If the guy has very very high stats he more likely is a loose guy, if he totally looks like a nit he probably is a nit. But stats like 44/37 over 28 hands don't tell us much yet.. It could easily be 30/25 or something like that after 100 more hands.

I have not seen 44/37/25 below my name in PT in all the sessions I played I think.
I have seen 0/0/0 though and I'm indeed looser than that.

Of course you are right that its looooow sample size but that is what you have (and it's certainly more than nothing).