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Fold or Call with QQQ vs Post-Flop Flush Draw

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Dynamitejack
Joined: 17.08.2017

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 49.5 BB (VPIP: 29.67, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 91)
BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 164.5 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 17.48, PFR: 14.69, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 146)
Hero (UTG): 89 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qc Qh
Hero calls 1 BB, CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 8 BB, fold

Flop : (21 BB, 2 players) Qd 2d Kd
BB bets 10 BB, fold

BB wins 20 BB

What I see is BB has either KK or Flush my only out is Qc. Pot is .40 w .20 to stay in. So if pot odds are .20/(.20+.40) = 93% and outs = 8%. Should I also count a pair hitting turn and river and hope for a full house? That would increase my hand odds to about 28% right? Was that a good fold?


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5 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Hi Dynamitejack,

You should never limp this hand, or any other hand, preflop.
Also it would be good to play with a full 100bb stack.

OTF I wouldn't be folding a set. Your pot odds calculations are incorrect. It should be .20/(.20+.20+.40). You also can't put villain on KK or a flush only. You should always include some bluffs. Hands like A♦::Kx: etc.. are possible.


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Dynamitejack
Joined: 17.08.2017

Thanks for the reply la55i,
I started w 100BB, I was about 40 hands in at this point and down to 89BB. The reason I limped is because everyone was folding pre raises, so I decided to limp to try to keep other players in.

Good point about including bluffs, I hadn't seen Villain go to showdown so I wasn't sure what his range is. Judging from his stats I could tell he was very tight and low aggression. So I figured either :Kx: or flush was a high probability.

Can you explain why the pot odds are .20/(.20+.20+.40)? I'm not sure how well regarded James splitsuit Sweeney is around here but he said pot odds = $risk/($risk+$pot) so that's what I based my calculation on.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

If the guys are folding a lot you can start opening with a wider range. You don't have to start limping, that will get you in awkward spots and you don't win as much money.

$risk/($risk+$pot) is correct but now you are missing villains bet from the pot. So you are risking 0.2$ and the total pot here is 0.4$ + 0.2$


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AnXfile378
Joined: 20.07.2017

OP - I assume you are playing on ACR in the US? I'm in NY and was playing there. People are super nitty there and so many regs. I moved to BetOnline. So much better, tons of fish!


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zednik44
Joined: 17.08.2017

You absolutely should be raising this hand for value pre flop. Post flop you have middle set which is an exceptionally strong hand. True, we are somewhat concerned about the monotone board, but you are definitely ahead of his range here. Also, the chances of flopping a flush is like less than 1 percent, so we are definitely looking to call here. If the turn comes a diamond, that is a different story but we just should never fold here, even if he shoves all in we should consider calling. The key is to put your opponent on a range of hands that takes into account his stats (if you have) or player type, and the betting action. You limped right? Why wouldn't he try to raise you pre and then c-bet bluff you on this scary board. Your preflop play looks like you could have basically anything from JTs to 44 or really anything honestly. Anyway, its not a big deal we all make mistakes and learn and youre doing the right thing by posting and asking! good luck out there!


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