River fold of top 2 pair

Call-call-donk is usually a sign of strength from a villain. The question then is whether we beat what he's representing.

It could be a set, of course, and then we lose.

KJ already made a straight OTT and perhaps he'd have raised already.

I think there can be some weaker two-pair hands here, such as AT, QT or even T9, and we only need to be ahead 22.6% of the time, so I think I'd actually call with our top two-pair.

@ lfcmichael Can you help me with the math a bit. I see so many times these low percentages but do not understand them.

I would calculate this hand like so:
to win: 36.5 + 15 - (rake ~2) = ~50
to pay: 15
So I do 15/50 and that gives me ~0.3 or 30% instead of your 22.6%

Do you include the split pots or do you use an application to calculate these numbers?
Or what hat is the flaw in my calculation?

Hi,

Well, I was not including rake in my calculation, because I didn't know the amount of rake.

If we call, the pot will be 36.5 (pot already) + 15 (villain's bet) + 15 (our call) = 66.5.

The calculation is 15 (our call)/66.5 (the amount in the pot if we call) = 0.22556... = 22.6%. So, in theory, we only need to win this about 22.6% of the time for calling to be break-even.

Because of the rake, we would want to win a little more often than that.

Even if villain is only ever donking for value in this spot, we have the best possible two-pair, so I think he can do this with enough weaker hands for a call to be worthwhile. Maybe others will disagree, I don't know.

Ah thank you!

I forget to add my call money (15BB) there!

SNAPCALL

his bet is so small, he has the occasional random spazz with KT type of hands, and he sometimes value bets worse 2pairs

SNAPCALL

his bet is so small, he has the occasional random spazz with KT type of hands, and he sometimes value bets worse 2pairs

Clear call, you need only 22,7%. Villain line is very strong, but you beats all two pair hands.

I would call too. His bet size is small.

easy call for me as well

OK. I totally agree with you all, I should have called but I am on this.. mission.

I have to change my rules to be able to call top two but what should be the rule?

Its not the second nuts for sure. J8 JK AA QQ 33 all beat me.

Should I call top 2 when only one of the two is on the table (either flush/straight) ?
Should I call top 2 only when the price is right? so below 25% (which was the case here)?

I know it's a bit of a difficult question but If you have some thoughts you're already helping me a lot!

I'm not sure that there is an easy 'rule' to follow, as such. I think you just have to consider villain's range and then decide whether he can be betting for value with hands weaker than yours.

In this example, there were quite a lot of weaker hands possible in villain's value range. Compared with the cheap price offered, it made sense to call.

There will no doubt be other hands where villain would never bet without a stronger hand than ours (or as a bluff). If we had just a pair here, then I'd definitely be folding, for instance, because villain would rarely donk then with a worse hand than our pair.