How to bluff with precise % on the river?

I think what you tried won't work because sometimes a hand where your first card is a spade will be a value hand. And even if that trick would work and gets you a desired bluff frequency, I still doubt it would be the best play. This is because then you are not thinking which hands make the best bluffs.

You just have to know what is left of your range OTR and pick the best bluffs. It takes some practice.

Take 2 white chips and 1 black chip (other colours work as well). Put them in a box / hat / whatever container. Whenever you want to bluff shake the container and without looking take a chip out. If it is the black one - bluff. That method also guarantees it is absolutely random when u bluff. It can also work for other percentages, just adjust the chips accordingly. 60 / 40 for example would be 3 white and 2 black.

:f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin::f_biggrin:

Originally posted by Fanko
Take 2 white chips and 1 black chip (other colours work as well). Put them in a box / hat / whatever container. Whenever you want to bluff shake the container and without looking take a chip out. If it is the black one - bluff. That method also guarantees it is absolutely random when u bluff. It can also work for other percentages, just adjust the chips accordingly. 60 / 40 for example would be 3 white and 2 black.

Using any kind of random number generator etc will of course guarantee that you do the action with desired frequency but I don't think that is what ojorge is looking for. If we want to bet 33% of our range as a bluff, this method only makes sure we bet our non value hands with 33% frequency so we would be actually bluffing significantly less.

He clearly states he wants to bluff with precisely 33% frequency. Doesn't get more exact than what i suggested.

Not sure if you are serious or not

If he uses your method, does he do that with every single hand? Then he would be betting exactly 33% of the time. But some of the hands will be for value. So that doesn't tell us how often he will bluff and how often bet for value. Or does he do that only with hands that don't have showdown value? In that case he would bet 33% of the time with his bluff hands but that means he will be bluffing quite little.

You obviously cannot bluff when u bet for value, can you ? That means that when he is on the river with a hand that he cannot value bet with and he is wondering whether to bluff with it or fold, he wants to bluff one out of three times. What is so hard to comprehend ?

KEY WORD FOR YOU IS "BLUFF"

Cos that’s the wrong way

Right way is to have valuerange, then pick the right amount of bluffs and use the best hands to do that. If there needs to be a bluff 33% of times with exact hand, then use chips.

It is so hard to comprehend because you are wrong.

What ojorge is asking is how he can make sure he will bluff with 33% frequency. This means that if he bets, how he can make sure 33% of his bets are bluffs and rest are for value.

That means that when he is on the river with a hand that he cannot value bet with and he is wondering whether to bluff with it or fold, he wants to bluff one out of three times.

Basically this is where you go wrong. With your method you would be bluffing exactly 33% of your bluff hands. That doesn't make your total bluff frequency 33%.

If he has a range of 100 combos. He wants to figure out how he can have a bluff 33% of the time every single time he decides to bet. He wants to choose, for example, 33 bluff combos and 66 value combos if he is betting his whole range. Or bet a bit less often and choose for example 10 bluff combos and 20 value combos.

This can be done by constructing our ranges well, knowing those ranges and learning to think about ranges.

Examples why we can't use your method:
If we have 100 combos left in our range when we get to the river and we bet our whole range. The board has connected with us well and we are very value heavy. Let's say we have only 20 combos that are crap. Now if we use your method we will bluff those 20 combos with 33% frequency which would make our bluffing freq about 7%. (notice that in this scenario it would be impossible to even bluff with 33% freq because our range is too value heavy).
Or if the board is super bad for our range and 80 combos are total crap. Then we bluff those with 33% freq, our total bluffing freq would be 25%.

So. We don't want to bet all of the hands with 33% freq. We don't want to bet our bluff hands with 33% freq. What we want to do is construct our betting range in a way that it has 33% bluffs and the rest are for value.

Now did you comprehend this?

THE KEY WORD FOR YOU IS "RANGE CONSTRUCTION" (although not totally sure if this is the best keyword, just quickly had to come up with something)

He is simply asking how to have 33% bluffs in a spot. You then went to add ranges on top of a simple question. How you made it to coach rank is beyond me.

Love and peace.

There are more hands than value/bluff hands. There are also bluff catchers and hands that are not beating over 50% of opponent’s calling range (and aren’t therefore valuebets) but still has better EV when bet oop (see Weazel’s video).

Of course you can just select the ”bluff” hands, and it means you construct a bluffing range. And then use the chip bag to bet hands from that range 33% of times. But then you don’t bluff 33% of total times, just 33% of the times you have the bluff range.

Why would anyone want to do that? I would assume that the reason we would like to have x% bluffs is to have balance. And to have balance we need to have ranges and our value range affects our bluffing range.

Original guestion was how to make sure he bluffs 33% of times. If you use chip bag, you just bluff 33% of your bluff range. Now if bluff hands are 60% of your all hands, you would bluff now 20% of times. If bluff hands are 30% of all of your hands, you would bluff 10% of times. So as you can see, total river range affects the chip bag method.

To make sure he bluffs exactly 33% of times, the only way is to have river range, and then construct a bluff range.

Kyyberi I'm not 100% sure but somehow I feel like we are getting trolled here.

just overbluff a bit, nobody will notice

I like feeding the Trolls.

I am not trolling at all. What you are saying is true and is also completely irrelevant as the question was how to bluff precisely 1 out of 3 times on the river. For as long as you can distinguish between hands that you bet for value with and hands that you bluff with, the most simple way is what I suggested (or using some internet RNG that does that for you). The question was never how to bluff 33% of our bluff range, but how to bluff with 33% frequency on the river.
As long as you have a hand that you cannot value bet with and do not wish to check/call or check/fold, you can just pick a chip from the bag and be happy no matter what.

I guess that it would be helpful if the author of the topic actually follows up and clarify what exactly he wanted.

The question was never how to bluff 33% of our bluff range, but how to bluff with 33% frequency on the river.

True. We agree with this. But your method bluffs 33% of bluff range, it is not the bluff frequency.
33% bluff frequency means that when you bet, there is a 33% chance that you are bluffing when you bet.

You have to know the amount of value hands so you can add enough bluffs. Your bluff hands must be 33% of your total betting range, only then the frequency is 33%.

Example:
For some reason you want to buy about 33 cars (doesn't matter if it is a bit more or less). You walk in to a car shop that you know has exactly 100 cars. Now you have trouble deciding which ones to get so you walk up to every car and pick a chip. Unfortunately some of the cars are out of your budget, so you do this only when the car is affordable enough. Do you end up with about 33 cars?

So those 100 cars in the shop are kinda like the total range you could be betting. You want 33% of those to be bluffs, so it would mean 33 combos. But if you only pick a chip when you have a bluff hand and then bet it 33% of the time, the ratio between your bluff hands and value hands is different.

Think about it. What happens if the board is super shitty for us and we really do not have any hand that could bet there for value. We pick a chip from the bag and bet those hands with 33% frequency. Is our bluff frequency now 33%? No, it is 100% because still every single time we bet, we bet with a bluff hand. Same thing if our range hits the board awesomely and we have only value hands. We can't never achieve 33% bluff frequency because every time we bet we have a value hand.

I honestly can't explain this better ♦

It has been explained now at least four times. If Fanko doesn’t get it, then be it.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
It has been explained now at least four times. If Fanko doesn’t get it, then be it.

Well, you tried and that's what matters.