QQ vs monotone flop

Originally posted by lastmohican33
It's OK to fold on the turn?

I think yes for sure.
You do not beat much (maybe... maybe AJ), you do not draw to the nuts and villain is an UTG opener and called your 3 bet.

Originally posted by lastmohican33
Or If I decided to call the raise on the flop I have call the bet on ther turn too? Or just give up on the flop?

No, I don't think you should give up flop with a draw to the second nuts for that price.

Well played really.

I think Check/calling flop might be better though. You never get better to fold and there isn’t much worse that can call/raise.

3bet QQ pre-flop is ok,villain have small fold to 3bet.OTF better line is check-call,expecialy vs agro reg.OTT is fold,you are committed.

One potential problem I see is that we are talking a lot about stats but in fact we have just less than 250 hands. This is barely enough to get an accurate VPIP/PFR. Positional stats are still very inaccurate, now it looks like his RFI on UTG is 15% but it can easily be 20% on the long run. Fold to 3bet stats are also quite useless.. He has called 3/4 but again on the long run this can be significantly different. Showdown stats are totally useless.
But the fact that he has cbet every time so far in 3bet pots and he has raised cbets in 3bet pots could indeed suggest that he is kinda aggressive.

About the hand itself:
Pre you can 3bet but I'm not super thrilled to do so against tight UTG opener when we are playing OOP. But I believe it is a question of preference.
OTF I actually like to check call. As played I would call the raise.
OTT I think folding is fine.

Well played ,
I myself would have played that hand in exactly the same way

Thank you all! When I reviewed my hand I just thought too to x/c the flop is a better option.

I do not understand how can we call the raise on flop in order to fold on that blank turn?...

Originally posted by la55i
One potential problem I see is that we are talking a lot about stats but in fact we have just less than 250 hands. This is barely enough to get an accurate VPIP/PFR. Positional stats are still very inaccurate, now it looks like his RFI on UTG is 15% but it can easily be 20% on the long run. Fold to 3bet stats are also quite useless.. He has called 3/4 but again on the long run this can be significantly different. Showdown stats are totally useless.
But the fact that he has cbet every time so far in 3bet pots and he has raised cbets in 3bet pots could indeed suggest that he is kinda aggressive.

Yes. I know I have a little sample size of the villain, but I just use these stats overall for categorize my opponents.

Originally posted by nitrol
I do not understand how can we call the raise on flop in order to fold on that blank turn?...

The flop raise is almost a minraise. We still have a high pair with a flush draw. I think we can agree that this should be called?
OTT it just unfortunately looks like it gets too expensive for us. Even though our hand is good, we still appear to be quite at the bottom of our range. We did 3bet SB vs UTG so we probably don't have JJ or KJ here, but we do have KK,AA,AK that are better hands than our QQ. We also have some possible flushes if we 3bet polarized.
If we call this, we would then have 1.16 left OTR on a pot of 8.05. So the stack would be going in with this hand. And I think it is not that great.

While it seems stupid to call the flop raise just to fold OTT, I think it always isn't stupid. We called not only to improve our equity but we also have the possibility to bluff villain out on later streets or see a cheap showdown and beat his AJ with As.

It is a nearly half pot bet on turn. How can you fold if you called the flop raise?

I think I already explained that.

OTF we are offered a very good price, we can improve our hand, we might see a cheap showdown, we might be able to bluff villain out and so on.. OTT we are not being offered that good price anymore. While QQ is still a strong hand here, we have many better hands and we might be actually at the bottom of our range. Calling the turn would mean that the stacks go in and I wouldn't like to put all the money in with this hand facing this action.

Villain will not bet the turn every time and there are scenarios where we win the hand. Calling the small flop raise doesn't mean we have to go broke here. I think that kind of thinking could be because of the sunk cost fallacy. You have invested already so much that you believe you have to see it through and can't let your hand go. We simply did what we thought was the best move OTF and then we re-evaluate.

Why we are in this spot might be because we did 3bet a big UTG open with standard 3x sizing with a hand that I think is not the best one to 3bet an UTG open with. And then we follow up with a cbet that is too big on this board imo.

This is of course just my quick opinion without analyzing this spot more in-depth. OFC if we call here we might still win this hand because villain can have a nut flush draw maybe with a pair to go with it. But as I explained we have many better hands in our range so we might not be required to defend here and if we call we basically might be stacking off with our whole range.

What would your line be then? Would you fold vs that flop raise? Or would you call it and then call again OTT? Why would you do that? Do you think villain has enough bluffs so we can win this often enough?

Now I have quickly tried to explain my initial thought process. I know you probably disagree with that and it is fine. As I said I didn't analyze this spot more so I might totally be wrong To keep this discussion going it would be nice to know what you are thinking, and more importantly why you are thinking that

I will not read this pamphlet until you put some effort and do analyse this spot thoroughly.
I want some expertise on this, not a small novel on how you feel.

The question is: do we fold on turn after we called the flop raise?
With what range villain will raise us on flop? How do we value our hand? How can we improve?
Do we need to call the flop raise?
I see you are a coach now and I really expect every post from you to be an expert one.

Originally posted by nitrol

I want some expertise on this..

I see you are a coach now and I really expect every post from you to be an expert one...

@nitrol Now you have really pissed me off with that arrogant tone.

Get your manners back or go find some.

@RubbyDubby

Heh, we have been doing this with nitrol for years. Those manners are probably very well hidden somewhere ♦

@nitrol

Yes I'm a coach now. I also have been a bit busy lately. You might see that I haven't posted here so much. I want to help as many as I can but sometimes I can't work with one hand for dozens of minutes. I have still written 3 posts (this is the fourth) in this thread and no one else seems to doubt the reasoning I have provided earlier. So far everyone else actually seems to agree with me.

I'm always open for arguments and different opinions. Sometimes I'm wrong (only human, you know) and I'm willing to admit it if that is the case. Also, if someone else provides a different opinion with some reasoning I will look into it and see if that is actually better than my own opinion and then either change my opinion or not. That is how this works.

I did look this up with Snowie and a GTO solver. Snowie would call OTF and then ship it OTT thinking that it is just marginally better than folding. Calling would be hugely -EV play according to it. GTO solver thinks that with the ranges I provided villain shouldn't have a raising range OTF and our hand is already on the flop a 0EV call (but still should be called with some frequency to defend enough). And OTT it would 50/50 call or fold.
The information was a bit conflicting and the best move depends a lot on villain's tendencies and ranges. Based on this I think my initial thoughts were ok. I still think calling the flop was fine but still would fold it OTT.

Now we can continue this discussion if anyone else has any questions or new perspectives to this, or if you are willing to provide your reasoning not to fold OTT. But otherwise I consider our debate to be done

Originally posted by RubbyDubby

Originally posted by nitrol

I want some expertise on this..

I see you are a coach now and I really expect every post from you to be an expert one...

@nitrol Now you have really pissed me off with that arrogant tone.

Get your manners back or go find some.

And who are you to get between me and la55i?
And why bother me with your broken feelings?

Originally posted by la55i
@RubbyDubby

Heh, we have been doing this with nitrol for years. Those manners are probably very well hidden somewhere ♦

@nitrol

Yes I'm a coach now. I also have been a bit busy lately. You might see that I haven't posted here so much. I want to help as many as I can but sometimes I can't work with one hand for dozens of minutes. I have still written 3 posts (this is the fourth) in this thread and no one else seems to doubt the reasoning I have provided earlier. So far everyone else actually seems to agree with me.

I'm always open for arguments and different opinions. Sometimes I'm wrong (only human, you know) and I'm willing to admit it if that is the case. Also, if someone else provides a different opinion with some reasoning I will look into it and see if that is actually better than my own opinion and then either change my opinion or not. That is how this works.

I did look this up with Snowie and a GTO solver. Snowie would call OTF and then ship it OTT thinking that it is just marginally better than folding. Calling would be hugely -EV play according to it. GTO solver thinks that with the ranges I provided villain shouldn't have a raising range OTF and our hand is already on the flop a 0EV call (but still should be called with some frequency to defend enough). And OTT it would 50/50 call or fold.
The information was a bit conflicting and the best move depends a lot on villain's tendencies and ranges. Based on this I think my initial thoughts were ok. I still think calling the flop was fine but still would fold it OTT.

Now we can continue this discussion if anyone else has any questions or new perspectives to this, or if you are willing to provide your reasoning not to fold OTT. But otherwise I consider our debate to be done
What ranges do you put him on?

88-JJ, AKs, AKo, AQs would be quite solid but then I gave him AJs and AJo, KQs and some high suited connectors with 50% weight.

With what part of this he will raise flop?

So much discussion about one hand. That is just awesome

My humble opinion. I would consider calling pre because his UTG range is the tightest and by 3betting you will even narrow it down and you will end up OOP on many Kxx and Axx boards playing for a large pot. As played I would check/call flop. You have second nut flush draw so you dont have to protect your hand. If you think he is over-aggressive, let him bluff, dont take that away from him by betting.

My plan would be check/calling 2 barrels unless an A comes in which case I would fold to a barrel.