thelastnail linked me to that interesting hand ....
since i tried stars the last 2 weeks (and i just love it ♦ ) i post my thoughts on this hand too.
btw: whats the nickname of utg?
preflop: perfect isolation, we have the power button. this scenario is like printing money.
flop: vs unknown cbetting is def fine. vs known reg i would either cbet and planning on 3 barreling or checking back the flop and betting any broadway turn and/or river. really depends on villain. just too many pockets in his utg l/c range.
turn: i suggest a bet/fold here almost always. if he really has a pocket 55-88, he might call us again not seeing any high-scare-card (ofc depending on our image. if we are a nit, its hard to get any more bets out of a pocket on any street). also, there are possibly many fds in his range that wanna pay. if he l/c pockets utg, he will also l/c small and mid scs utg, right? or maybe Axs.
why should we bet the turn and not going for bluff induce or value on the river?
- river can bring many overcards = scare cards for his small pockets. checking back turn and betting the river then screams like value bet. even a bad reg then might fold his pocket. as a bluff this line works pretty well vs thinking players cuz "we should never be bluffing here after checking back turn".
- furthermore, we dont know for sure, that all his busted fds will bluff the river. hence, we lose a big bet from his fd range.
- if balancing was an issue: makes us exploitable when we not cbet turn as pfa when turning tptk imo. but thats another story.
river: im snap folding. he has 4x, 33, 99 or AA here. thats his entire range imo. bluffs wont overshove 3x pot in this spot. overbetting is fun, but not too many players use it properly.
in his spot i would c/rai river. our hand is face up as a small pocket most of the time or a fd. good spot to get a bluff bet out of pfa. i would never donk out. anything that can call a river donk will vbet on the river.
if we had bet the turn in this hand, i would bet the river really small trying to let busted fds freak out and giving small pockets a hard time and levelling them into a call.
to answer your question with a smiley: your river call is really bad imo
without history its a snap insta muck. and even with history ... its nl200. u wont see an i-level-u-3xpot-overshove-bluff w/ busted fd here.