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MPvsBTN AA facing a triple barrel

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MatoStar
Joined: 22.07.2017

Originally posted by Tomaloc
clearly you entered the hand with the plan to check/call 3 barrels, but then you changed your mind.
i think river is close, the main issue is that 9 is a pretty bad card, K doesn't really matter except that it makes his bet size polarize him further. if you wanted to call, it can't be that bad, i don't see too many better hands in our range and it's 2018 and regs can run big bluffs. i think we mostly just 3barrel ourselves though

Yeah, I entered to the hand with plan to call 3 streets, but not on every single runout.
And agree that his range is polarized, so then it really depends with how frequency would he triple fire with bluffs.
And again the mass database analysis shows us that people don't triple barrel enough with bluffs, so it should be the final data point.


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advancedTN1984
Joined: 29.10.2012

I can see many value hands in his range, you don't beat. I think it is a two part process on the river. Figuring out what your equity is in the spot and the required equity you need in the spot. It is up to you to find his bluffs on the river, I think there is a ton as value there with only this range as value for 3-street barrels. I don't know how wide he is preflop but based on the assumption that he stabs a lot it could be a regular with decent stats, but it is not given in your decription of the hand.

The value hands.

56s, 78s, 89s, TJs, 44, 77, 88, 99. approximately 24 combo's. Let's say he doesn't have the K8, K9, K4 combos. Also we are not totally sure if he does play all the combo's given this way, might be he sizes up when hitting straight or going all in with them on the river. We seem to have no read but probably he uses this kind of bet sizing with his value range.

I don't see a ton of one pair hands that are tripple barreling here. The 8 got scared of the 9 and K etc.

His sizing is not just on the flop is 75% or so. That concludes that he is probably leaning toward value or semi-bluff. Without reads that he is spewing off partially stacks like this with some random bluff. I would be inclined to fold with the line chosen by hero.

We need on the river. approximately about 30% equity. Against his 2-pair plus value range we got approximately 0%, if we however can find a Kx in his range that continues bluffing on the turn I can see some worse value hands and we can get the 30% with some bluffs reasonably well.

If we can find approximately 8 combos of stone cold bluffs we should call.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

Originally posted by MatoStar

Originally posted by Tomaloc
clearly you entered the hand with the plan to check/call 3 barrels, but then you changed your mind.
i think river is close, the main issue is that 9 is a pretty bad card, K doesn't really matter except that it makes his bet size polarize him further. if you wanted to call, it can't be that bad, i don't see too many better hands in our range and it's 2018 and regs can run big bluffs. i think we mostly just 3barrel ourselves though

Yeah, I entered to the hand with plan to call 3 streets, but not on every single runout.
And agree that his range is polarized, so then it really depends with how frequency would he triple fire with bluffs.
And again the mass database analysis shows us that people don't triple barrel enough with bluffs, so it should be the final data point.

i agree with all of this


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SaliSigua
Joined: 16.08.2015

AA whery strong heand i think its hard to loose pocket aces GG


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by MatoStar

Originally posted by nitrol
I do not like the idea to check on this connected board. Villain can xb and can get a free card.

But we have a data point that people are stabbing too much, especially on flop like this, so then your point is irrelevant

What does it change? AA is a hand we should be cbetting.


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Laci24
Joined: 07.10.2009

Originally posted by advancedTN1984
I can see many value hands in his range, you don't beat. I think it is a two part process on the river. Figuring out what your equity is in the spot and the required equity you need in the spot. It is up to you to find his bluffs on the river, I think there is a ton as value there with only this range as value for 3-street barrels. I don't know how wide he is preflop but based on the assumption that he stabs a lot it could be a regular with decent stats, but it is not given in your decription of the hand.

The value hands.

56s, 78s, 89s, TJs, 44, 77, 88, 99. approximately 24 combo's. Let's say he doesn't have the K8, K9, K4 combos. Also we are not totally sure if he does play all the combo's given this way, might be he sizes up when hitting straight or going all in with them on the river. We seem to have no read but probably he uses this kind of bet sizing with his value range.

I don't see a ton of one pair hands that are tripple barreling here. The 8 got scared of the 9 and K etc.

His sizing is not just on the flop is 75% or so. That concludes that he is probably leaning toward value or semi-bluff. Without reads that he is spewing off partially stacks like this with some random bluff. I would be inclined to fold with the line chosen by hero.

We need on the river. approximately about 30% equity. Against his 2-pair plus value range we got approximately 0%, if we however can find a Kx in his range that continues bluffing on the turn I can see some worse value hands and we can get the 30% with some bluffs reasonably well.

If we can find approximately 8 combos of stone cold bluffs we should call.

Nice analysis. ;)


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