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AQs nut flush draw and gutshot in a 3-bet pot 3-way

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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

partypoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 131.1 BB
Hero (CO): 124.8 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 133.3 BB
BB: 112.5 BB
UTG: 116.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ Q♠

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, UTG calls 9 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

Cold-calling the UTF open I think 3-betting is not good here. Cold-calling the 3-bet again because of pot odds as our hand draws to the nut straight and flush.

Flop: (36.5 BB, 3 players) 9♠ K♦ T♠
BB bets 23.1 BB, UTG raises to 104.7 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 112.8 BB and is all-in, fold

Here if we put UTG on only sets and QJ our equity is roughly 39% (I put BB on AK and AA). If we call 104.7 BB into a pot of 164.3 BB, we need to pay 104.7BB for a 269BB pot. Is this calculation correct and the call is profitable? Or am I missing something here?

Turn: (269 BB, 2 players) J♠

River: (269 BB, 2 players) 3♣

Spoiler

UTG shows 9♣ 9♥ (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 53%, Flop 67%, Turn 20%)
Hero shows A♠ Q♠ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 47%, Flop 33%, Turn 80%)
Hero wins 8.1 BB
Hero wins 259 BB


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5 replies
zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I 3bet pre.
The rest is all about get it while you have equity.
Not sure if a fold is not best.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Well the spoiler said you have "only" 33% on the flop...
(And indeed I don't see how you could have way more here.)


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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
Well the spoiler said you have "only" 33% on the flop...
(And indeed I don't see how you could have way more here.)

It's 33% on the flop vs his hand, not vs the whole range he shoves here...


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

Of course if he shoves air you have more equity. I wouldn't bet on it though. ;)
And you'd need BB to donk big air multiway too. That begins to make a lot of air for such a heavy spot...
No frankly at least one of them has a set here every time. I'm already surprised no one had the straight lol.


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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

Yeah, pretty sure he is not shoving air. As I said in the first post, the range I put the villains on was AK and KK for BB and QJs, KK, TT, 99 for UTG. This is where the number closer to 40% comes from...

But I basically have my anwser - if he only has sets I need to get paid 3:1
If he has sets + one more hand then it's an OK call.


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