.
Notifications
Clear all
19 replies
Checking back would have been fine but if you bet I wouldn't expect villain to fold on the first barrel. JJ- and AT, AJ, T9 etc are gonna call at least once.
Yea cbetting the flop in position with just a gutshot is kind of meh I guess. We could just check behind and see what happens on the turn.
The problem is that you don't have any good barreling cards. Then what happens is that villain is going to float, he calls at least once there. Then you don't hit OTT and you are lost and have to check. Villain sees that and is gonna stab every river and you have to fold.
It's not a cbet, it's a probe bet in 3bet pot. Wouldn't you usually consider that an autoprofit spot of some sort ? 
Haha, I had just woken up so made a small mistake, but what is your excuse? I believe probe bets, at least according to some definitions, are made out of position and can be made only OTT or OTR. This would be just a bet vs missed cbet.
And yea people often fold way too much after checking the flop. I think it is easy to find some regulars that skip their cbet and fold 70% vs a stab. However, that is in single raised pots and I don't really have a strong idea at the moment what the percentage would be in 3bet pots. Must check some old analysis.
Then that of course depends on limits and villain too.
Here I thought that villain's range could hit this board ok and he might not be folding vs a single bet.
But even then it could be that making a small bet, like 30-40% of the pot, could generate autoprofit.
Btw, as you have also pointed out in earlier threads, auto-profit is not always max profit 
I like to check back here of course.
But I call any bet versus missed cbet a probe bet. And I don't care if you have a problem with that. 
Noo I don't have any problems with that ♦ I call every bet vs missed cbet a bet vs missed cbet. Just pointed out that I believe that originally the definition of probe bet was bet out of position against the guy who could have made a cbet but didn't
I don't know if cbetting the flop is the best option. Since it is a 3bet pot, villain might have a middle pair, or a draw. Cbetting won't make him fold. Maybe checking back on the flop is ok. You keep the pot small and see what happens on the turn. If he bets, I think it's a fold.
As played, on the turn I think it's ok as played. And the river is a fold.
Originally posted by la55i
Noo I don't have any problems with that ♦ I call every bet vs missed cbet a bet vs missed cbet. Just pointed out that I believe that originally the definition of probe bet was bet out of position against the guy who could have made a cbet but didn'tBut obviously OOP you have to wait for the next street to act. I don't see why IP we would have to. I think that against a missed cbet OTF, betting flop IP or turn OOP is the same as probing spirit goes.
But then again I might be wrong as I'm not the tech guy but anyway trackers have sometimes weird definitions too.
I'm not completely sure about this but if I remember correctly the term probe bet was originally introduced in PokerTracker, and their definition is a bet vs missed cbet out of position, so it happens OTT or OTR.
For me it doesn't matter, I don't really care. But if you ask PT how they define a probe bet they say it is OOP. But then again they think we can't cold call on the blinds either because we have already invested the blind in the pot, which is crazy stupid imo. That is why I dislike PT ♦
Oh yea I guess it is entertaining for both of us too We could do that in Skype but when we do it here others can enjoy about it too 
And I guess this all could give some new info/insights to someone
Since this is BTN vs BB I think it's fine to cbet the flop - we should have a decent fold equity even though he 3-bets pre. I would play the hand the same way.
But then again I've been switching between NL10 and NL5 a lot lately, and NL10 villans 3-bet vs steals A LOT more, so in NL5 this might not be profitable at all.
With what hands do you call a 3bet with on BTN?
OTF you probably don't fold TT or JJ just yet. You also won't fold any Kx or Qx vs one bet. With AJ and AT you have an overcard + gutshot. And you won't be folding any flush draws or straight draws.
How much are you folding?
It could be true that we have nice fold equity. I just make you do the work because I'm too lazy to do it myself ♦
Originally posted by la55i
Oh yea I guess it is entertaining for both of us too
On Skype i'm already arguing with way too many people to focus on you come on ♦
We don't have FE on one barrel but we should have on 2 or 3. This combo could be either checked back OTF for its SDV or stabed but with the plan to keep up on every street. We have good equity retention in some of our outs, good blockers and we don't block FD.
What matters is that you understand why you bet and why you should keep on or not, what you are hoping to accomplish etc. Betting just once and giving up is a big mistake in my opinion as it totally plays on villain's game with Qx or JJ- and shows some lack of understanding of postflop play in 3bet pots.
la55i once created a topic asking subjects for microstakes videos and I said probe betting ranges. This is one of the situations that I'd like to see covered in depth.
Without a heart on the board, I check-back turn often. It hits villain 3bet range and he is the agressor.
I'm wondering if we should throw the 2nd barrel on a double check now that we have probed OTF. Probe once and then check or fold looks very fishy to me.
Now the questions:
Can we represent something by raising this river as played?
I don't know what should be villain's checking range OTF, but I think it has some hands once it is a 3bet pot. But checking twice... looks like he's giving up on the hand. Then he bets 2/3 OTR... Ultra slowplay? It doesn't make sense because we wants to protect his set OTF from draws. His river bet is weird.
AQ, AK, AA, QQ, KK bet OTF 100% I think. 33 most likely call pre from the BB.
We have A4's, but we don't have QQ, KK often. We can also have 33. Do we check OTT this combos? A4's definitely. 33 not so much.
Conclusion: probe OTF leaves us on a very strange spot, even with position.
You ask too many questions zeto 
Are you a cop or something ? Or maybe some kind of portuguese philosopher... 
About the video, it should be ready soon. However, probe betting ranges are not covered since 1) the topic is a bit confusing and 2) it could take up the whole video.
What can I say about probe bets is that they should be done frequently, especially if we are talking about those OOP probe bets.
The reason is that villains still do cbet quite a lot, especially on the lowest limits and especially when they are IP. According to my analysis on stars (NL2-NL25) the average flop cbet ip was 63% and I believe this to be a bit higher on NL5 since they haven't yet learned to check some part of their range.
After skipping the flop cbet IP, villains on average folded 52% vs a turn stab. So probing something like half pot every single time is probably not the maxEV line but I don't expect you to lose much either with that line. Because of that, if you don't know what you are doing OTT or OTR, I think making the probe is always a decent option.
Yeah it's still supposed to be an autoprofit spot, so even if I think people tend to make small mistakes sometimes by betting range without thinking, we should still nearly bet range indeed.
Shiiiiiiii t, wall o' text thread. No way im reading all of this!! ππ
Anyway, i would try to take the pot too.