Value bet the river w TPTK?

Seems like a decent spot for a value bet on the river. Off course you need to fold if he would shove, but that's the risk you can take here I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by SDK1987
Seems like a decent spot for a value bet on the river. Off course you need to fold if he would shove, but that's the risk you can take here I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987

What sizing would you use here? I guess going for 1/3 might be good and he would call all weaker Kx and possibly 2nd pair type of hands.

To me it depends on the villain. Against a random fish you should value bet

I would be careful about cbetting this low paired flops vs BB defends when in EP.
Facing a turn check/raise would be a disaster imo, so I like to check sometimes. You can call a lot of rivers bets, including all the hearts.
Well, against a reg you don't have a value bet OTR for sure. If he check/shoves you are in a critical spot and you have to call AK most of the times tbh, would be an extremely strong line from the BB on a K high board. River SPR is small, so by betting you are basically committed.
I don't think any decent player will call 8x, 9x OTR (or even OTT) vs a triple barrel (maybe 9♣:8♣: calls OTT). You don't do this with QQ-99. This is Kx, AA, A6 or a spazz.
His calling range should be top pair or better. 88 or 6x should raise OTF/OTT.

very awkward SPR on the river. decide what you want to do on the turn, and size accordingly - as played, it seems like a clear jam to me, and if you feel that's excessive, you should size down on previous streets.

Hi, I would jam vs fish all day long. All flash draws busted so he never folds Kx hands. Hands that beats us would raise on flop or turn quite often so I would be happy to jam here.

Originally posted by confidant91
Hi, I would jam vs fish all day long. All flash draws busted so he never folds Kx hands. Hands that beats us would raise on flop or turn quite often so I would be happy to jam here.

It's a fish. They trap more than they raise. I don't think that's a guarantee.

I think we don't want to jam here. If we do get called when we size this large, I think we are very often beat. Betting small and going for thin value seems the right play. We can also not size our bets even higher at the flop and turn to get it all in on the river. This is already quite large for a paired board. I think we should size the flop bet down, make the turn bet about what it was (%-wise) and make a thin value bet on the river. We don't need to stack off with TPTK on a paired board. Instead of thinking of what we lose by not betting big against that one specific hand KQ that might call us we should think about all the random garbage he can call with if we size thin.

Against this player type just jam. You'd be surprised and what this kind of player can find calls with. Against anyone else I would size flop to 1/3 on this texture and cbet entire range.

Yo,
if you want to go for value OTR you should reduce your turn size, like 66/66/33 or 25. You took the value of his draws and his bluff catching range. So the value left OTR is pretty thin. Besides the opponent is with full stack and there isn't specific info, that he is a fish! Probably those stats are from a few hands and aren't the real ones at all!
Shoving is clearly over play!
Cheers