value shove set ?

PFR is a important stat as well. I would go for a thin value shove against most villains on NL5.
He could have 2 pair and if he has a better set or flush it's a cooler I think.

Cheers,
SD1987

I can add other stats from holdem manager like pfr because the hand has been imported from pokercraft.But on GG poker i only have the vpip stat available in play so that's why i only add the vpip stat to posts.Thanks for the reply.

Apart from river, I would bet bigger on the turn. Toppair kinda hands will still be calling and a lot of flushdraws might simply fold or still call you even if you bet bigger.
That also makes shoving the river easier, having a better SPR.
In this hand I would not shove the river, think you would only get called by hands that have you beat.
Depending on the villain player type I would bet small to get called by 2pair kind of hands or check-call for bluff induce.

hard to tell, was this his first time this villain was 3-betting your Button from SB? I would like to think Ax hands on that flop would c-bet nearly 100% of the time in this situation, he can 3-bet BU pre-flop with any suited broad-ways , any pair, suited connectors Maybe he has a hand like KK,QQ and just went into calling mode when the Ace comes.

Maybe he called flop with KJ, or QJ with a diamond and turned a pair.

we lose to AA,KK,JJ,77 QT and flushes'

we beat QQ, Ax, KJ,QJ,JT, and any 2 pairs, I would think you would see a raise at some point if he had any sets or two pairs but maybe hes just slow playing, I would probably bet the river maybe half pot since he seems scared and you want the call from worse, if he comes over top you have to call

Originally posted by Casey55
hard to tell, was this his first time this villain was 3-betting your Button from SB? I would like to think Ax hands on that flop would c-bet nearly 100% of the time in this situation, he can 3-bet BU pre-flop with any suited broad-ways , any pair, suited connectors Maybe he has a hand like KK,QQ and just went into calling mode when the Ace comes.

Maybe he called flop with KJ, or QJ with a diamond and turned a pair.

we lose to AA,KK,JJ,77 QT and flushes'

we beat QQ, Ax, KJ,QJ,JT, and any 2 pairs, I would think you would see a raise at some point if he had any sets or two pairs but maybe hes just slow playing, I would probably bet the river maybe half pot since he seems scared and you want the call from worse, if he comes over top you have to call

Thanks for the reply one thing though with the spr of 1 we should probably just either shove or check i don't think bet calling 1/2p on the river is a good idea.Villain can always call worse here vs a shove but isn't ever raising worse vs a 1/2p river bet i don't think.I get the idea to get some thinner value but it leaves us in some horrible spots.

Villain might get away from most 2 pairs possibly even AK vs a shove as well.Even sets like AA KK JJ have a bit of a crying call it's not a fist pump vs a shove.I should of probably of shoved i just thought id be mostly getting calls from a flush and better sets on the river.

With half pot your giving villain better odds to call, he may not call full pot, when you decide to bet full pot on the river what bluffs do you have in your range ? Sure he’s getting 2:1 but it looks like a value heavy river bet. so he may be more inclined to just fold whereas Half pot he can call with more worse hands, river diamond completes straights and flushes. Assuming villain will call to a river shove with 2 pair seems slightly optimistic. If he comes over top the half pot for an all in its w.e we are getting too great pot odds to fold.

If you shove the river he needs to be good 1 out of 3 times, what hands does he have 33% Equity against that you shove on the river given the lines of play?

In my thoughts it looks pretty rough scenario/decision for villain if hes holding 2 pair

he can definitely have 2 pair like AK,AJ but I think alot of your FD hands you would semi bluff with got there on the on the river, I dont think he should be afraid of the Straight because you having QT would be weird given your line except maybe only QTdd which is 1 combo.

If we are giving villain AJ,AK most of the time then..

He is beating hands like A3,A7, a hand Like KJ with J of diamonds K♠:J♦: ( can't see hero barreling KJ on flop with no backdoor diamond but maybe)

And hes losing to all flushes, 77,33. and possibly losing to AK if he hold AJ. I think if the river wasn't a diamond it would be an easier decision perhaps but I don't think its an easy call for villain given his range on a 2:1 river shove. Thin value 1/2 pot seems fair but to each their own.

The plan you should make on this flop is to get stacks in by the river...

If you bet big on the flop your hand is disguised because your perceived range will be heavy with bluffs. Same goes for the turn etc. You could get called down for stacks on the river from a weak A who is bluff catching.

Originally posted by yadijavadi
The plan you should make on this flop is to get stacks in by the river...

If you bet big on the flop your hand is disguised because your perceived range will be heavy with bluffs. Same goes for the turn etc. You could get called down for stacks on the river from a weak A who is bluff catching.

Not necessarily true, against a TAG they bet like this often with solid hands not heavy with bluffs, it depends how his image is at the table but I've tuned into Reds streams he seems like a solid player, from what I seen he was TAG-ish, I play with players all the time who bet 2/3 pot with good hands on multiple streets, some players are scared to get drawn out on so they bet this way aswell

This villain is either inviting the bet, or giving up. It doesn’t make much difference whether we’re a tag or a lag.

I wouldnt usually remark on the poor betsizing as it’s only a small issue, but after seeing Reds post that ATs squeeze I realised he doesn’t plan ahead and he needs to sort it out.

This is a great example of the same thing. You should always have one eye on the villains stack especially when you have the nuts!

I don't know, I think Lag's have many more bluffs in their range than a TAG would have in general. I think it may change the situation quite a bit, because TAG's range should be stronger and I think they tend to give up more often after they're flop c-bet doesn't work if they do have nothing, LAG's are not afraid to barrel with bluffs, I don't know if we can assume villain is giving up, he called 2 hefty bets he could be trapping but he could also hold a hand he thinks is not strong enough to raise with that could be 2 pair type stuff.

They do have many more bluffs, many more barrels etc. And so a lag could expect the villain to call down weaker.

In the flop this doesn’t matter. We can OB the flop and we look more like a bluff than 2/3 pot.

On the turn: The villains range looks like a weak Ax. To rep a bluff, we need to make a bet that could fold out a weak Ax. Therefore, a big bet reps a bluff as much as we possibly can and also gets as much value as possible.

On the river it’ll be an easy jam, giving this guy the chance for the hero call.

That’s the most obvious play. If you think this guy is going to fold his hand to the turn bet then instead of this line you could check back the turn planning to raise/bet the river.

The sizing Reds chose shows us that he doesn’t plan ahead. That he doesn’t read his perceived range. That he loses sight of his strategy in the later stages of a hand. If Reds wants to get to some real games he needs to address these issues, but it’ll take effort.

Originally posted by yadijavadi
They do have many more bluffs, many more barrels etc. And so a lag could expect the villain to call down weaker.

This also depends if the villain is capable or comfortable adjusting to exploit Hero, or if Villain is playing with a fixed strategy in his own comfort zone.

Yeah we have to consider the likelihood of each of those possibilities. How often is this guy reading my range? How often is he capable of adjusting?

In the end it amounts to the same thing. The villains will, on average, call wider here if we’re a lag.

Originally posted by yadijavadi
Yeah we have to consider the likelihood of each of those possibilities. How often is this guy reading my range? How often is he capable of adjusting?

In the end it amounts to the same thing. The villains will, on average, call wider here if we’re a lag.

LOL yes IF we're a Lag..I don't think Reds plays like a LAG I've watched him play he seems Tag-ish as I commented earlier. I honestly don't know if he's posted a hand where he ran a serious bluff on anyone,not that thats a bad thing lol

But, whether tag or lag, the bigger flop bet is the better play...