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KQs on HJ vs reg on BB, FD + top pair on turn

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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

The villain is 25/20/af1.4 3B:9.8 flop CR (1/18) 350 hands

His flop AF is 1.11.

Yes, I improved on turn but I feel like he has 88 or 44 here.

PokerStars - $0.16 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 125.44 BB
BB: 135.5 BB
UTG: 205.63 BB
Hero (MP): 101.5 BB
CO: 103.06 BB
BTN: 108.19 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ K♠

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 8♠ 4♥ J♠
BB checks, Hero bets 3.44 BB, BB raises to 14 BB, Hero calls 10.56 BB

Turn: (34.5 BB, 2 players) Q♣
BB bets 24.69 BB, Hero calls 24.69 BB

River: (83.88 BB, 2 players) 7♥
BB bets 93.81 BB and is all-in, Hero

Thoughts?


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2 replies
Dandiiik
Joined: 19.07.2009

Good you have the c/r stat of 1/18. It is not like a huge sample but we can safely assume that he is not some overly aggressive player and his c/r range is not wide and we can narrow it to very good draws and made hands. I would expect him to have 6s7s and Ts9s which is only 2 combos of draws. And then sets of course which is 6 combos of 44 and 88 if I count correctly. Regarding simple pot odds and this range you have a fold on the flop I guess because he has more value combos that beat you and his raise to 4x is quite huge.

But if he is semi bluffing with flush draw you have huge implied odds probably. So you might call flop and reevaluate turn. Maybe he will shut down and you will have a free river. If he has the range of draws and sets the Q doesnt change much actually. You are either still ahead or beat. So you can fold OTT and against the river shove I would fold definitely.


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Laci24
Joined: 07.10.2009

Yep, I agree with Dandiiik. It is not easy flop decision againt a player who have 1.1 AF.

River looks like easy fold. You have clear bluff catcher and he dont have enough bluff there imo.


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