[Closed] KJs NL50SH

If hes aggressive I prob raise him, if hes passive I might call

18/17/4 looks like a little too tightish tag player. I gues his range here is 22-99 maybe and some draws. He might sometimes try that with air too. I think that if he has a pair type hand and you hit you won`t any more value from him , but against that type of hands you have good enought odds without implied. If he has a set you will get at least another bet from him if you hit so you have odds there too I think. I think I would just call here and reevaluate. If you come over the top you will only fold his pp hands against which you have equity anyway or his weak draws which you want him to continue with and will just get into ugly spots against sets and nut fd maybe .

Maybe BU's calling range is wider than what his stats over 60 hands suggest, still i don't think he ever just flats Asxs in that position, so we're looking at 22-99 and some random OESD, pair+OESD, non-nut flush+GS or other combos draws.

You have ~15 outs against a pair+OESD, pair+GS or an overpair like 99, you have any other flushdraw crushed (he's unlikely to have the As, if he does and the money goes in too bad really :\), 9 outs against a set.

If you 3bet/call on the flop you're up against sets mostly, and maybe something like 7s6s. You stack that last hand by calling on the flop if the flush hits on a turn anyway. Not that bad but not good either.

If you call and a spade hits you'll likely get another bet out of him, your hand could also be an overpair so he will bet again on the turn or call a bet on the river. Some people will still stack off with a set on a spade turn because you could have something like AsAx with a redraw.

All in all, i'd also call the raise and see what happens on the turn.

On a blank if he bets strong again i'm folding, on a spade obviously we stack off.

Worse case scenario decision-wise would probably be something like a J turn and him betting huge into us again after we check. Still i would probably fold because his range for following through on a "blank" turn is a lot stronger than his flop raising range and the J doesn't really help us against that range. Plus with only one card left to come our equity isn't as good as it was on the flop.

Against such an aggressive player I would 3-bet and get it in OOP, because it's hard to get the money in if we hit unless he has a set, plus he could do this move with lots of hands.

I don't think it is any easier to get him to shove over our 3bet on the flop with anything less than a set or the nut flush draw, as he only has 9$ invested at that point. His AF is 4 but it's one of the stats that take the most hands to be accurate, he's probably only moderately aggressive.

What do think his range is for shoving over our flop 3bet ?

I don`t like 3-bet shoving. You are only folding his PP - smaller draws against which you have very good equity and odds to call and isolating against sets , nut fd and oesfd maybe.

I think he can still shove after a 3-bet with 66, 88, 67 or even some higher pockets. I agree we're most likely behind though if he shoves. But if we just call his raise, we're basically calling to see a spade on the turn, which will not happen too often. And we can be sure he'll bet turn again if we don't hit and we have to fold.

If he has a weaker draw and his flop raise didn't scare us off, i wouldn't be so sure he would fire again on a blank turn. It might have been a raise to try & buy 2 more cards by checking behind the turn.

I think calling a 3/4 pot raise with a FD is really the worst option here. You can't really count on implied odds since you were the preflop aggressor, his raise doesn't mean much and you're playing out of position. If you don't want to 3-bet and play for stacks, although I would against such an aggressive villain, I think fold is better.

We're likely flipping with or ahead of everything he has except sets, which are the only hands (with the unlikely NFD) that will for sure call or shove over our 3bet. I think the risk is far greater than the reward when we decide to commit $47 more to that 12$ pot for a chance to isolate ourselves against a set and then suckout.

With that much equity against his flop raising range and not so much equity against his flop 3bet-calling range, i think it's fine to just see a turn.

I can`t agree that call is that bad here. Either you have implied against a strong hand he has or you are ahead against a worse. And you can`t be sure he will fire again on turn with a fd , small pair even on a blank turn , and especially on a face card turn.

when you think he is making some kind of move with lower flushdraws or just bluffs, then 3-bet/calling shove is fine option there
If you think villain range is very strong there, I think just folding is also ok
I'd likely just 3-bet or shove.