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PLO50 6543ss 3bet pot flop call or shove?

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

No reads on villain. I open from BU, SB 3bet and I call. I shoved flop here versus pot size bet but I started to wonder if call is better? Folding is worst option imo as I think we have reasonably high implied odds if hitting as even from BU our range dont have huge amount of hands like this.

Theory wise shove feels fine as SB should have some pot bet fold range afaik but in reality though I would not be surprised if SB is never folding after potting. This flop we very rarely hit two pair or set so potting puts most of my range in spot where I just have to fold.

My equity most of time versus SB call range will be around 43% so SPR 3 its quite not enough in itself. With rake we would want 45% to be breakeven. Probably not big deal whatever to call or shove. At first I thought I have to fold on turn if it doesnt give me extra equity but actually its really close even then. So yeah probably wont really matter with 100bb stacks.


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Padelbro
Joined: 21.01.2010

I dont think it matters much when you dont have any reads of villain and are not folding any turn.

Usually when cbetting pot here I think ppl are never folding, so there's not much FE. If he would fold anything, like even TTTT or KQ73r it would be great obviously :)

On the other hand if turn is another J or "dangerous" card like K, can villain fold bad aces or that TTTT when SPR-1? I think anyone rarely does, they just go with whatever they have.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

From solver perspective, SB should pot here very often (~86%) and then fold just ~23% of that range to a BTN shove.

I don't think that in reality you have much of FE on the flop. The only reason to call would be to potentially save money if he checks turn and river and you miss them.


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