[Closed] Cashout => Doomswitched Theory

Originally posted by Berzerger

Originally posted by yelongrenps
Besides, by definition, a downswing comes after an upswing, and I think it is safe to say that it is more probable to cashout during an upswing and therefore more probable that a downswing will follow.

Wrong. Up/downswing is an event of the past, you can only conclude that it exists by looking at hands you've played in the past. It does not have any effect on the results to come. If you're flipping a coin, just because you've coincidentally tossed heads 10 times in a row doesn't give you any better chance to throw tails next.

I agree, I know past events do not determine future events, and that we are not ''due'' to have a heater. All i am saying is, look at your past graph, there will be upswings and downswings on it. Where are you more likely to cashout?

Originally posted by Waiboy
Why is it I just don't enjoy these threads as much as I used to.

I feel the same way.. Even though there is still a little smile on my lips when reading inf4my's replies.. But yea.. It's not the same is in the good old days, lol ♦

Originally posted by SalamiandCheeseI lost 6 HU sng's in a row (the worst in 500+ games before that was 4) the next day I started playing and it's not getting better.

Ok, I've been slowly making way back to the HU tables the last few days and I've won 8 in a row. The cashout => doomswitched problem only lasts 4-7 days. ♠_evil:

Originally posted by csnmf
I would say that every site that PS.com is affiliated with have their RNGs independently audited to make sure it's random most of these companies are ones you probably havn't heared of but i did notice that PWC did one for Ladbrokes and they are a massive company. Ladbrokes also publish statistics each month of the hands dealt.

http://poker.ladbrokes.com/en/card-statistics

Proves nothing. What is almost impossible to analyze is WHEN the cards come, and against what. Do you not find it miraculous how often your AA meets (e.g.) Ad3d and the flop comes Xc4d2d (for example). You might still win by the river the right number of times, but the flop almost always seems to give the dog a LOT more chance of winning than it had preflop. If they're suited they flop the flush draw, if they're connected they flop the open ended... seems to be in order to keep it exciting and maximize rake, more akin to a computer game than real poker. More outs = more money in the pot if it's not all in already = more rake. And if all the ignorant auditors do is check how often each pocket pair is dealt in the hole cards then I know I would rig it if I was running the site. Impossible to get caught.

Some Stars and FTP "variance" for you, after cashouts on both sites:

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...283764296.html

then the very next hand:

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...283773924.html

and the very next hand...

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...283780680.html

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...285972267.html
Sick

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...987659970.html
If I'm playing roughly 1000 hands in a day, should I really be seeing quads 3-5 times aday, without fail?

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...063537329.html
Mentally incapacitated people certainly seem to win far more than their share (near the bubble here)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316094772.html
(AK v AQ all in preflop, river Q)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316236523.html
AQ v 9T (the guy is all in every single hand, hence my loose call) - 4 outer river which I called out loud b4 it hit

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316462913.html
AA v 66 all in preflop, runner runner straight, called the 7 out loud b4 it hit

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316724737.html
to show I'm not biased: Q6 v KK, I flop 66 and river the Q (all in preflop, shortstacked in the BB after the previous beat) but the next hand I'm out when my QK suited runs into the monster that is TJo

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...351009700.html
That has to be up there with one of the sickest I've ever witnessed!

Then 2 hands later (after my AK loses a flip to 66 in the hand in between) this happens:

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...351025774.html
(66 v 99 v QQ... 6 9 Q flop!)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...434720364.html
KK on the bubble v LAG guy who has just lost a huge pot. Any other player I can lay this down here.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...436662466.html
ITM and short-stacked, sick runner runner split pot.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...436718928.html
A5 > AA (ridiculous community cards as usual) (in my favor for ONCE)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...437462691.html
Finally on an FT and in a pot as huge favorite to get into the decent prizes. AK < AQ, as always.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...471069752.html
Not a bad beat for me, but witnessed yet another sickeningly bad call that gets rewarded on the river. As always.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...471863064.html
AT = A2o ridiculously bad call, split pot.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...472727231.html
K9 with pair plus straight draw + flush draw < 94o, 2 outer river.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...472990883.html
QKs < 24o, I shove, what ridiculously bad call. No matter what his stack, that is a really really bad call. Rewarded as usual.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...473499168.html
THIS ^^ If you ignore all the hands in this post, read this 1! Not a bad beat for me, but an unbelievably unlikely series of events! (2 outer turn full house, 1 outer quads river, after all in on the flop)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...474843386.html
A6 = A5 - heads up split pot, when the win basically wins me the tourney. I go on to finish 2nd on a coinflip.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...516488875.html
AA < 55, all in preflop, he flops his 5 of course.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...517716549.html
AQ < KQ - runner runner flush, same old bullshit.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...519661731.html
AQ < 77 - not a bad beat, but on the flop there are 2 outs otherwise I treble up and make the FT with a commanding stack. Out in 11th with the same prize as 18th, to a runner runner straight... deja vu!

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...520912956.html
AT = A3o, yet another river split pot.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...521335264.html
THIS^^ AK v AK v AK v JJ, K high flop, runner runner straight gives it to JJ. LMAO at this "R"NG...

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...520981768.html
KK < A4o near the money. Leaves me crippled and I end up bubbling. Same old bullshit.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...521486581.html
Just to make sure I bubble that game! SO SICK

And all this in less than 200 tournaments in the past 2 months. Would expect to play millions of hands (and in some cases hundreds of millions of hands) before seeing some of this bs.

I'm not even bothering saying I think it's rigged, I'm just docmenting what's happening in my games, so you can see why I'm losing money. I'm sure there are some leaks in my game. If anyone can spot some I'm happy to hear about them. But leaks or no leaks, variance or rigged... this is sick run bad!

DISCLAIMER: SOME OF THESE DIDN'T HAPPEN TO ME, SOME ARE NOT BAD BEATS BUT BAD RUNS IN QUICK SUCCESSION, BUT THERE IS NOT A SINGLE SESSION I'VE PLAYED IN 2 MONTHS WHERE I HAVEN'T WITNESSED ASTRONOMICALLY UNLIKELY EVENTS.

Originally posted by oFISHnCHIPSo

Originally posted by csnmf
I would say that every site that PS.com is affiliated with have their RNGs independently audited to make sure it's random most of these companies are ones you probably havn't heared of but i did notice that PWC did one for Ladbrokes and they are a massive company. Ladbrokes also publish statistics each month of the hands dealt.

http://poker.ladbrokes.com/en/card-statistics

Proves nothing. What is almost impossible to analyze is WHEN the cards come, and against what. Do you not find it miraculous how often your AA meets (e.g.) Ad3d and the flop comes Xc4d2d (for example). You might still win by the river the right number of times, but the flop almost always seems to give the dog a LOT more chance of winning than it had preflop. If they're suited they flop the flush draw, if they're connected they flop the open ended... seems to be in order to keep it exciting and maximize rake, more akin to a computer game than real poker. More outs = more money in the pot if it's not all in already = more rake. And if all the ignorant auditors do is check how often each pocket pair is dealt in the hole cards then I know I would rig it if I was running the site. Impossible to get caught.

Some Stars and FTP "variance" for you, after cashouts on both sites:

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...283764296.html

then the very next hand:

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...283773924.html

and the very next hand...

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...283780680.html

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...285972267.html
Sick

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...987659970.html
If I'm playing roughly 1000 hands in a day, should I really be seeing quads 3-5 times aday, without fail?

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...063537329.html
Mentally incapacitated people certainly seem to win far more than their share (near the bubble here)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316094772.html
(AK v AQ all in preflop, river Q)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316236523.html
AQ v 9T (the guy is all in every single hand, hence my loose call) - 4 outer river which I called out loud b4 it hit

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316462913.html
AA v 66 all in preflop, runner runner straight, called the 7 out loud b4 it hit

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...316724737.html
to show I'm not biased: Q6 v KK, I flop 66 and river the Q (all in preflop, shortstacked in the BB after the previous beat) but the next hand I'm out when my QK suited runs into the monster that is TJo

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...351009700.html
That has to be up there with one of the sickest I've ever witnessed!

Then 2 hands later (after my AK loses a flip to 66 in the hand in between) this happens:

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...351025774.html
(66 v 99 v QQ... 6 9 Q flop!)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...434720364.html
KK on the bubble v LAG guy who has just lost a huge pot. Any other player I can lay this down here.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...436662466.html
ITM and short-stacked, sick runner runner split pot.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...436718928.html
A5 > AA (ridiculous community cards as usual) (in my favor for ONCE)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...437462691.html
Finally on an FT and in a pot as huge favorite to get into the decent prizes. AK < AQ, as always.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...471069752.html
Not a bad beat for me, but witnessed yet another sickeningly bad call that gets rewarded on the river. As always.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...471863064.html
AT = A2o ridiculously bad call, split pot.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...472727231.html
K9 with pair plus straight draw + flush draw < 94o, 2 outer river.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...472990883.html
QKs < 24o, I shove, what ridiculously bad call. No matter what his stack, that is a really really bad call. Rewarded as usual.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...473499168.html
THIS ^^ If you ignore all the hands in this post, read this 1! Not a bad beat for me, but an unbelievably unlikely series of events! (2 outer turn full house, 1 outer quads river, after all in on the flop)

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...474843386.html
A6 = A5 - heads up split pot, when the win basically wins me the tourney. I go on to finish 2nd on a coinflip.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...516488875.html
AA < 55, all in preflop, he flops his 5 of course.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...517716549.html
AQ < KQ - runner runner flush, same old bullshit.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...519661731.html
AQ < 77 - not a bad beat, but on the flop there are 2 outs otherwise I treble up and make the FT with a commanding stack. Out in 11th with the same prize as 18th, to a runner runner straight... deja vu!

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...520912956.html
AT = A3o, yet another river split pot.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...521335264.html
THIS^^ AK v AK v AK v JJ, K high flop, runner runner straight gives it to JJ. LMAO at this "R"NG...

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...520981768.html
KK < A4o near the money. Leaves me crippled and I end up bubbling. Same old bullshit.

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandV...521486581.html
Just to make sure I bubble that game! SO SICK

And all this in less than 200 tournaments in the past 2 months. Would expect to play millions of hands (and in some cases hundreds of millions of hands) before seeing some of this bs.

I'm not even bothering saying I think it's rigged, I'm just docmenting what's happening in my games, so you can see why I'm losing money. I'm sure there are some leaks in my game. If anyone can spot some I'm happy to hear about them. But leaks or no leaks, variance or rigged... this is sick run bad!

DISCLAIMER: SOME OF THESE DIDN'T HAPPEN TO ME, SOME ARE NOT BAD BEATS BUT BAD RUNS IN QUICK SUCCESSION, BUT THERE IS NOT A SINGLE SESSION I'VE PLAYED IN 2 MONTHS WHERE I HAVEN'T WITNESSED ASTRONOMICALLY UNLIKELY EVENTS.

^^ EPIC FAIL, THE LINKS DON'T WORK, LOL

http://www.getastake.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12161

They can all be found here ^^

^^ EPIC FAIL, THE LINKS DON'T WORK, LOL
♦

No bad beats, but serious case of run-bad!

All on the same table in the space of 6 minutes:

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandViewerHistories/HV_FISHnCHIPS34542342640.html
TT < J6o, all in preflop. What a lucky spaz!

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandViewerHistories/HV_FISHnCHIPS34542508698.html
AQs = A3o, what a sick runner runner split pot!

http://www.getastake.com/forum/HandViewerHistories/HV_FISHnCHIPS34542699405.html
88 < J6o, same lucky spaz as before, same hand, same result. So sick! In between I got KK > A3o... somehow!

All in as ~70-30 4 times in 6 minutes, lose 2 big pots, split 1 small pot, win 1 small pot. Ouch

Originally posted by oFISHnCHIPSo
ASTRONOMICALLY UNLIKELY EVENTS.

Can someone tell me what this is?

quote:
Originally posted by oFISHnCHIPSo
ASTRONOMICALLY UNLIKELY EVENTS.

Can someone tell me what this is?

Very very unlikely events

Originally posted by Sasa1234

quote:
Originally posted by oFISHnCHIPSo
ASTRONOMICALLY UNLIKELY EVENTS.

Can someone tell me what this is?

Very very unlikely events

That's what I thought. So even though they are unlikely, they are possible?

Wait.. Is this what other players call odds?

How likely is it that in a live game a player who puts his last chips all in blind (he had about 1/4 of the bb after a horrendous bad beat the previous hand) will hit a Royal Flush??

I have no idea of the odds but I saw it happen on a table I was playing on!

I have also seen someone shove their last few chips in on the river with a board of Kh Qh 10h 8s Jh to be called by the player holding the 9h (the all-in player had the Ah) - must have been rigged??

I managed to get 4 players all-in on an all spade flop when I was holdong As Xs to have one player river a gutshot straight flush (10s on the river) - must have been rigged of course.

All of these and many more I have seen live (including AA vs AA vs KK vs QQ vs 66 - now that was a real cold deck!!) - needless to say all these must have been rigged - it happens.

I have hit quads 3 times in one live game in the space of 3 hours!

These things all happen live too - including my AA being beaten by 42os who hit 2 pair (on turn and river of course) - I still play and enjoy live poker even though the poker gods seem to have quite a laugh some days lol

It is all rigged by odds, probabilities, variance and of course by the one overwhelming law of the world ....... MURPHYS LAW!! - if it can go wrong it will go wrong, and at the worst possible moment!!!

Superstition is for idiots IMO, and has a phycological impact on you're game, mostly due to the fact you THINK you are going to lose, thus you think differently and make worse moves. (e.g. im not pushing with this 10As because i'll lose, because i drew money out) which is SILLY!

Just stay away from rigged threads, people.

You can't convince the OP that rooms are not rigged and he certainly can't convince any sane man that they are in fact rigged for no specific reason but human nature. Oh, and he's got a 100k hands sample which online pros play in three weeks time span.

Those threads are a fun read none the less though. Thank you, OP!

Ur welcome? Maybe u should read the first thread then the part about me feeling better about my bad luck because I went on a 13 in a row run shortly after.

All this huff and puff about about rigged sites, so little logic..

I would think that if the poker sites really wanted to mess with the good players they would set them up on the flop with the bad player so both had a good hand, and then river/turn them.

Im a "bad player," still working on my game (around -2bb/100) and KK, AK are by far my biggest losing hands. I wish the sites were rigged for me! Need to get some more hands to get rid of the VARIANCE in my KK and AK though.

Originally posted by oFISHnCHIPSo
DISCLAIMER: SOME OF THESE DIDN'T HAPPEN TO ME, SOME ARE NOT BAD BEATS BUT BAD RUNS IN QUICK SUCCESSION, BUT THERE IS NOT A SINGLE SESSION I'VE PLAYED IN 2 MONTHS WHERE I HAVEN'T WITNESSED ASTRONOMICALLY UNLIKELY EVENTS.

Ever tried 25-tabling ? You will see things happen if you do ..

And btw. about the "bad runs" .. the hands are independent, so there is no such thing as "bad run"