[Closed] AA vs. random hands - online poker

very small sarmples. atleast 200 if not 500 hands needed mininum

a possible explanation is that your postflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.

im not sure if this analysis is correct. you are not counting if they fold preflop ( lets assume they are fold the lower range of hands preflop). So they hands you are seeing to the river have presumably called a preflop bet and must (most of the time) be in the higher range of hands. So they are no longer 'two random cards'. so you cant expect to win 82% of the time any more.

Happy to be corrected if im wrong here

Originally posted by evertonroar
im not sure if this analysis is correct. you are not counting if they fold preflop ( lets assume they are fold the lower range of hands preflop). So they hands you are seeing to the river have presumably called a preflop bet and must (most of the time) be in the higher range of hands. So they are no longer 'two random cards'. so you cant expect to win 82% of the time any more.

Happy to be corrected if im wrong here

You're right that your preflop equity changes with your opponent's range but against a tight range you actually have more equity. Eg. AA vs 11% (66+, A8s+, ATo+, KJs+) is about 84.6%. As for the results above, sample size is tiny so I wouldn't worry too much. Also, does that include only pots that go to SD or every won pot?

Originally posted by GunFlavoured

Originally posted by evertonroar
im not sure if this analysis is correct. you are not counting if they fold preflop ( lets assume they are fold the lower range of hands preflop). So they hands you are seeing to the river have presumably called a preflop bet and must (most of the time) be in the higher range of hands. So they are no longer 'two random cards'. so you cant expect to win 82% of the time any more.

Happy to be corrected if im wrong here

You're right that your preflop equity changes with your opponent's range but against a tight range you actually have more equity. Eg. AA vs 11% (66+, A8s+, ATo+, KJs+) is about 84.6%. As for the results above, sample size is tiny so I wouldn't worry too much. Also, does that include only pots that go to SD or every won pot?

I account every postflop play.

Oh like yesterday I lost 4 AA in a row. So with the 8 times I've been dealt AA in the last two days it's winning chances are 50:50. Rigged!

Get a sample, dude! Like at least 500 hands AA vs random.

Originally posted by mishkagg
Oh like yesterday I lost 4 AA in a row. So with the 8 times I've been dealt AA in the last two days it's winning chances are 50:50. Rigged!

Get a sample, dude! Like at least 500 hands AA vs random.[/quo

Had a look at youre blog........very good...but you should have the refferal link/video on the poker stategy page...$$$$$$$$$$$$

Besides I took the time to check my AA ratio. I've been dealt AA 135 times in around 30000 hands.
I've won with it 81.4% of the time.
PokerStove says I should have won 85% of the time.
The missing % is due to my small sample size. I am sure in around 100000 hands it's going to be close to 85%.

So instead of spitting crap on forums invest some time and theory and practice.

Gl Hf!

Originally posted by shortfuse
a possible explanation is that your postflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.

Er?

Whether you lose at showdown or fold after the flop, you still lose..........

Only the the amount you lose can change

Originally posted by andyb43

Originally posted by shortfuse
a possible explanation is that your postflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.

Er?

Whether you lose at showdown or fold after the flop, you still lose..........

Only the the amount you lose can change

if you get a shitty boards and still carry on playing knowing you're beat then of course you will lose. now is it so hard to imagine this?

Originally posted by shortfuse
a possible explanation is that your preflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.

fyp ♦

<you should be able to fold AA in situations.>
O those supermasters folding Aces Why not to fold AA on every flop, because every flop without Ace gives your opponent chance for winning hand like set or 2pairs.
BTW in SSS there's no way you may drop your Aces, because it's impossible that it won't be overpair, and with overpair you're supposed to move all-in without hesitation!
I'm also in the league for losing Aces. Just got 2 of them in ~900 hands and lose both. Other day before got only one of them to lose to Q7, who exactly got 2 pairs from the flop. Yes I know distance will return everything, probably some time after 2012

I never folded AA against only 1 oponent after flop.

Just to this topic:
Last session I've got 3 AA hands, and 2 in a row on the same table
1. Against my raise with AA Villain called with 89, collected OESD on the flop and straight on the turn. -1 stack
2. Same table next hand. Villain raise before me, and called my re-raise. Not again was my thought! Fortunately guy surrendered after flop +0.5 stack.
3. Was twice re-raised before flop, go all-in with AA against QQ.
Flop XXQ Oops.
Turn A, result +1stack.
Total result + 0.5 stack - many lost nerves. Win rate 66%, in last five -1.5 stacks, and 40%.
(Not) Strangely enough my AA for winning rate in 10k hands stand on 5th (!) place, even behind AJo

And who says AA is the nutz after the flop ? Obviously you need to improve your post flop play

BTW AA vs xx is 80/20 preflop. So if you are always AI preflop with AA, you get that 80/20 over a small sample already.

But if you raise and get called by 89s , 66 or K9o , they usually dont continue without hitting something. So you dont win in these situations their stacks.

Now lets assume that they hit 2 pair, straight or something - they continue and it looks like you never fold aces, they get paid off for whole stack.
That is the reason, why it seems to you that aces cant win.

About winning rate with aces (25-20 like you said) - you have just small samplesize. And this is less important than money(BBs) won from aces.

So your main goal should be learn how to play big PPs - they arent nuts postflop. If you have some troubles, post your hands in the hand evaluation forums.

Poker quiz for playing aces when your Final Destination is below zero:
1. Easy. What cards Villain had in hole if he collected straight from the flop 246 (BTW much maligned one lonely out on the river is still 2.1%, but straight from flop even to connector 1,3%)?
2. Medium. How to keep your cool when you have AA against QQ, and see following cards nicely appearing one after another 59T J K?
3. Tough. How to be a winning player if you lose all encounters to AA, and when you got them, you also lose?

Of course I've heard about distance, but don't believe that much in it. Poker is still a game of luck - and unfortunately un-luck. I've red somewhere how one guy (and fellow poker player) wrote a roulette simulator. And he found that after million (talking about distance) swipes, playing in this basically losing game, top 5% of players will be winning. And of course these guys will give you a lot of advice for winning play

I also have a problem with AA on pokerstars... last 5 times ive had it and got all in pre flop everytime
lost twice to KK on river and turn
Once to JJ flopped a set
Once to AK turned a straight
And once to AQ rivered by a flush

Seems after i had a really bad run of cards i started running good though

To be honnest.

My opinion worth what it worth and i know that most successful online player won't agree with me.

Anyway, imho I actually believe online poker is and will ever be more ore less rigged in various clever and subtiles ways.

Why do i think so:

If they really want to do it, they just can do it and there is noway in hell anyone will ever be able to prove it.

being myself a programmer and having worked a lot on data compression with statistics, I have no doubt that you can actually do kind of whatever you want. Especially if your servers are located in a country where noone will ever be able to investigate them.

In the end why i am actually convinced online poker is rigged is not the bad beat or whatever of the game itself.

It is the opbvious ability for them to do so and the enormous financial interest they have in doing so.

This doesn't mean that you cannot win, not at all...

In the end what i actually think is:

Why in hell would they not do it ?!

please tell me...

And as a conclusion:

How in hell would i care about it as long as i still can make money out of it ?

I rather play rigged poker to make 85% of the money i should than spend my entire life working without being ever able to earn half of it.