Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Hero (CO): $26.05
BTN: $6.62
SB: $26.94
BB: $17.29
UTG: $29.97
UTG+1: $25.35
UTG+2: $5.35
MP1: $48.79
MP2: $27.88
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Q 
K 
3 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds
Flop: ($1.85) 6 
7 2 (2 players)
MP1 bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25
Turn: ($4.35) K 
(2 players)
MP1 bets $3.00, Hero calls $3
River: ($10.35) A (2 players)
MP1 bets $43.79, Hero folds
Villain is 17/17 on 90 hands. He has 8.0AF so far with extremely high aggression frequencies. River he shoves effective twice potsize so he requires to win 67% of the time to make this play as a bluff effective.
I think his perception of my range for calling but not raising turn includes= TT, (JJ and QQ) possibly 99, KQ, KJ, and likely not AK but its possible. As he has probably concluded I am an agressive player I would have raised a set by this point so he should actually have no problem in shoving river here to guarantee a fold. I am likely calling with KQ or KJ to a normal sized riverbet because it looks so much like a bluff with that A on the board but will obviously fold to a 2x effective river shove.
That is why I think its an excellent spot for him to shove River as a bluff but not to bet 2x potsize as a valuebet in this spot, so If I knew he was a thinking player as well as being super aggro I would like a call....
However, this is NL25 and I do not think many opponents are capable of this level of thinking, I think this river-shove is more likely to be a set, double barrelled Ax that got lucky on river or some sort of two-pair overplaying itself so I have to find a fold.
What do you think?
