Great work here, I would love to see some results for the heads up SNGs, too.
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Hey there!
Im not that much into sngs, but just wanted to tell you how cool this blog is and it is really interesting even for CG player.. 
Keep up the good work!
Gl!
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Is the real ROI 5% ?
Hey guys, ChoChikun had an interesting question :
"What is the chance, that my real ROI is 5% if my currennt ROI is not even positive ?"
So I took a look at that too and here are the results for various samples:
And the graph of course 
See this is why I don't visit blogs, they either make me want to move up limits or scare the living shit out of me ♠_biggrin:
Nice blog dude. Really useful info.
I thought this was an english speaking forum... none of this is making any sense to me.
Nice work !
Nice Work, It helps with TILT to realize how much hell we can expect to face when we are
seriously in this for the long run.
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HeadsUp, 6% ROI, 9% Rake (as requested by Ihufa)
Hi guys, so I took a look at the Heads Up games as requested by Ihufa:
And the graph (check this link for more detailed HQ graph):
that's very interresting, thanks a lot 
can you make $ on the y-axis and #games on the x-axis and draw the simulated players' bankroll progression (for maybe 500 players) as a line with a unique color through 1000 or maybe 5000 games? I saw someone simulating cashgames on 2p2 who did that, which gave an excellent overview.
Originally posted by ihufa
that's very interresting, thanks a lotcan you make $ on the y-axis and #games on the x-axis and draw the simulated players' bankroll progression (for maybe 500 players) as a line with a unique color through 1000 or maybe 5000 games? I saw someone simulating cashgames on 2p2 who did that, which gave an excellent overview.
Hello, I could make such a graph for $ but you would need to put in the BuyIn amount in $ (or I can just put "#BI" instead of $ on the y-axis) .. However it would be pretty though to do it for every player as I simulate 100 000 players everytime to get maximum credibility .. So I could put in the average with the interval around and maybe with the results of the luckiest and unluckiest players , but those values would be pretty extreme as with a chance of 1:99 999 there i going to be some very sick stuff going on ♦
But this rises another interesting question about the size of downswings and such stuff .. So I could try to simulate the downswing sizes if I get a good definition of what a downswing really is (in a sort of exact way) 
@ 8979687
Yes, your are very right .. It is so sick .. Firstly, it makes me wonder sometimes about the big tournament names that you see on TV all the time .. Basically none of those guys has any sample whatsoever and they are considered great players (and I do not mean Jamie Gold) .. Sometimes I think like "yeah, there is gotta be someone very lucky, who wins 2 or 3 tournies" .. Strange how the poker world works
and secondly, it really makes me thinking about my poker playing .. I decided for some reason to play a ton of micros instead of moving up to prevent huge variance, however I did not know it could be this huge .. But it takes so much time and such a sick multitabling to get a really good sample in a short time that it is probably the best way to play to stay on the micros if you do not want to just count on "I will not be one of the 10% who play good and still are loosing even after 1500 SNGs .. And 1500 SNGs is pretty hard to get with like 4-6 tabling
@ ShadowOfLight1337
I gues this one was one of the scary ..
Awesome blog, AugustusCaesar! I already have recommended it to my friends to read. And it kind of brings hope when you get into a downswing that it is actually quite possible to occur and that we should not really be bothered, as long as we stay focused, work on your skills and try to keep our A-game in line as much as possible.
Looking forward to updates!
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yeah but you know when variance is really sick? when you bluff all in on a gutshot with 30 bb s in a pot of 9 bb s and you hit , and he has you drawing to a 4 outer
btw i challenge you to a hu match consisting in 100 hu games 5 dollar buy in the loser pays the other one another 100 dollars, we play 6 at a time and we don t stop till we end the 100 sng s
Originally posted by vladd20
btw i challenge you to a hu match consisting in 100 hu games 5 dollar buy in the loser pays the other one another 100 dollars, we play 6 at a time and we don t stop till we end the 100 sng s
Was that aimed to me sir ? If yes than I give up in advance as I really suck at HU and I have no clue whatsoever how to play that
Great blog!
Now my ~750SnG(and counting) b/e stretch does not look that bad now! 
Cheers!
Originally posted by vladd20
btw i challenge you to a hu match consisting in 100 hu games 5 dollar buy in the loser pays the other one another 100 dollars, we play 6 at a time and we don t stop till we end the 100 sng s
if it was for me i accept if we can make it 55$ - 215$
pls someone stake me to take this ihufa guy(troll) by the wings and teach him how to fly :)) .... btw ihufa will take that challenge if you stake me , and you ll think....hmmmm but what do i get? well actually you get to play with ME :)) just kidding the whole challenge idea came from the fac that augustuscaesar won a hu against me by donking 30 bb in a 9 bb pot with a check raise on a gutshot wich he caught... a 4 outer must i say and i saw some room of improvement in his game (actually i thought....hmmm he sucks at hu so why don t i challenge him maybe he gets cocky and i win lot's of money)