sorry about to hear about such a huge downswing.
HEM alev is accurate, but it's only part of the story, it ignores a lot of things that constitute your actual EV, so you could say it's not completely relevant.
however, it's statistically closer to your EV than your winnings, and over 200k hands alev usually gives a good indication of your EV.
what's weird is that the swings in your alev line are so huge. usually a 4000bb downswing in the alev line means you're a clear losing player, and the inverse: a ~5000bb upswing in the alev line in about 80k hands, like on your graph, usually means you're clearly +EV. but it is possible that the huge swings in your alev line are just variance.
the graph does suggest that you've run very bad, but it also suggests that you are ~breakeven EV-wise, although you can interpret it differently if you know that you improved after certain points in the graph or had stretches of tilt, e.g. if you know that for the first 30k hands you were on some kind of perma-tilt and are less tilty nowadays plus you've improved a lot skill-wise since the first 30k hands, then the graph suggests that you are +EV.
i'm down several k in cashgames so far this year after 160k hands or so, but my alev is at +3000bb or something (which is still bad), and my alev line is less swingy than yours.
a downswing can go on for ever, it just gets less likely.
it's possible that the lines will meet, but running at expectation alev-wise from now on would mean the gap between winnings and alev staying exactly the same, not closing.
