PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
SB (t7995)
Hero (t1265)
UTG (t720)
Button (t3520)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A♣, K♦.
2 folds, SB raises to t800, Hero calls t400.
Flop: (t1275) J♥, 9♥, 2♦ (2 players)
SB bets t800, Hero calls t440 (All-In).
Turn: (t2515) A♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t2515) 8♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: t2515
The sense of calling preflop is maybe, just maybe, in 1% of the cases he will check/fold a flop. I don't think it matters anyway. (stop and go if you want, excepting that i'm in position).
Is there any chance i should fold here? I'm not tempted because my best hope is a 3rd and only if Shorty doens't get lucky.
What should i do with a weaker hand? Ax? Kx?
If i'm thinking about bubble factors, this feels like a clear fold. Anyway, i'm expecting your opinion. Thanks.
You have to insta fold this hand.
UTG is about to get hit by the blinds and he is done for.
You can only call here with KK+
Even if you KNOW SB was pushing with garbage, it is a fold.
Calling his raise does not eliminate you but it takes away the little fold equity you will have left for 3 handed play.
FOLD to a raise FOLD to a push.
Originally posted by 8979687
You have to insta fold this hand.UTG is about to get hit by the blinds and he is done for.
You can only call here with KK+
Even if you KNOW SB was pushing with garbage, it is a fold.
Calling his raise does not eliminate you but it takes away the little fold equity you will have left for 3 handed play.
FOLD to a raise FOLD to a push.
this exactly.
KK+? I would call that being too tight! AKo is very good in against SB's ATC and doubling up will greatly increase the ITM play. If folding both blinds, Hero is stuck with 1,5BB afterwards, and ÚTG will not bust nearly every time, and in the many cases he doesn't but doubles up instead you are left with absolutely no room to survive the bubble!
A little calc to back up my point:
Hero's ICM EQ(F) = 14,8%
Hero's ICM EQ(cW) = 24,9%
Hero's ICM EQ(cL) = 0
If hero's EQ on average will be higher when calling than folding it should be an +EV move in my book, meaning Hero will need to win in 59,4% of the cases
(14,8 < (x*24,9)+((1-x)*0) <=> 14,8 < 24,9x <=> x = 59,4%)
Meaning he could push as tight as ~15% and we would still be have the needed equity vs him.
This calculation does of course not consider the fact that UTG is likely to bust next hand, which is kind of hard to calculate, since we would have to include how often he would bust, how often he would double up ( and on this limit even how often he would fold the blinds) to our ICM EQ(F) and ICM EQ(cW)
If we knew UTG would bust 100% of the times in the next hand, or it had been a DoN on the bubble, sure easy fold. But here I would call anyday (or preferably push PF, not that it does any difference, but I just like to get it AI when I know I'm ahead
I don't know how loose a call I would make here, but somewhat tight for the reasons stated by the first two posts, probably something like 77+, AJ+, KQ!
First in is a whole other ball game.
In the case of being pushed into here you need KK+.
Even shoving garbage first hand into 3 handed and praying for a miracle double up would be better than risking bubbling
out with AKos here when the shortie is guranteed to bust out a majority of the time.
Thats the biggest difference here is that when shortie busts your assured $$$. When you bust he gets paid and you go home.
Look at the huge increase in his equity if you bust out.
I just meant push in this specific hand, not in general, which would obviousely be better
He will only bust in like 60% of the cases and in the rest we would be in a very bad shape, being bubble boy more than half of the time (the blinds will hit you 2nd time before they hit him again, and by doubling up here you greatly improve your chances of not only avoiding busting on the bubble, but actually giving you a little room to push with some FE when ITM if UTG busts the next hand, and imo it's better to take a shot at it with AKo (which is very good in), than with a random hand a few hands later in the cases UTG doesn't bust!
But then again, I know I have been playing a bit too loose on the bubble, but even tightening up wouldn't make me fold a hand as strong as AKo here, maybe it's a huge leak, but I still find KK+ very, very tight!
looks like i was way off with this one.
seeing as we are very similarly stacked with the other SS we can get it in wider than i thought.
note that if we change our stack so we have a clear lead over the other SS it becomes a fold.
nice interesting hand
ICM calculators don't quite treat the shortstack properly. A more accurate modelling tool would be something called Future Game Simulation where we do the ICM calculations in more detail for the case where we fold (ie we look at next few hands, chances of each result etc).
That said AKo is still a call here because we're not far enough ahead of the shortstack in this spot and there's nothing to stop him doubling up in the flip that will occur next hand.
<3's picture is great. If we are further ahead we can fold.
