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[Closed] 200NL - T9s on Axxsss flopped flush vs obv Nuts.

4 Posts
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Villain UTG: VPIP: 23 PFR: 18 (or UTG 14%) WTS: 26 AF: 3.0 C-Bets: 60% Sample: 4k Hands - No Reads

Villain BU: VPIP: 19 PFR: 12 WTS: 20 AF: 2.0 Sample: 2 k Hands

I think I can be pretty sure that he almost always has a monster on the turn. By counting combos of flopped flushes I have 3 combos, that beat me: KQs, KJs, QJs and about 3 combos that I still beat: 65s, 76s, 87s. That are very likely the only combos he will openraise UTG, maybe not even some of the smaller ones. He probably would cbet the low flushes to protect from another spade too. That would make this a fold but given the odds on the turn, I cant fold tho I think.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 683764
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $212.95
UTG: $200.00
MP: $311.75
CO: $349.50
BTN: $234.55
SB: $283.20

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with T :spade: 9 :spade:
UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($22.00) 2 :spade: A :spade: 4 :spade: (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $10.00, Hero raises to $29, UTG calls $29, BTN folds

Turn: ($90.00) 5 :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $61.00, UTG raises to $164, Hero calls $103


3 replies
Becks777
Joined: 04.03.2006

Don´t like the call pre. I prefer squeezing. U will be playing oop vs. 2 Tags and i don´t think u can play it + EV.
As played i´d c/r too. The coldcall from UTG looks suspicious. Think i´m not capable of folding a flush on the turn


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I would probably also either fold or 3bet preflop, I agree with Becks that against 2 regs it will basically impossible to play the hand +EV when we're OOP.

As played I like the c/r against BU. He could bet any2 since it got checked to him so we don't want to c/c and give freecards (we won't win much anyway).
UTGs call also doesn't scare me too much (ok it does a bit ) because I think he could be calling with hands like Ax where the x is a J :spade:+, although it's somewhat unlikely - but he is also cbetting flushes and nutflushes a decent amount of the time because he could cbet any2 and wants us to call whatever we have.

On the turn I'm therefore also not capable of folding a flush, especially since a few lower suited connectors are in his range, so I think overall it's not -EV to bet/call.


I hate the SQ pre vs an UTG range that is probably pretty tight, around 16% is realisitc. I think the call has more EV in it. We are getting 3:1 and I think we are doin OK with this hand even oop. Fold is too tihgt I think, but I guess thats very dependent on your own style.