[Closed] Discussion hand 2: Limp/calling all-in

Questions:
1) What range do you give the BTN for limping?
Some bad players will do this with any speculative hands assuming it'll get checked down, if he's a good reg i'd give him AA, KK, QQ and maybe JJ, AK and AQ if he's not so good his range will be polarised with suited connectors and connectors JT and below

2) What range do you give the BB for pushing for 15 bb total after the BTN limps in and the SB completes?
About 25% usually but it could be up to 40% depending on the player

3) What range do you give the BTN for calling?
The "trapping" hands in his limping range

4) How much equity does the BTN need against the BB's range to call the push?
~56% using the bubble factor charts. Can you do this in ICM trainer?

5) With which hands would this be a good play from the BTN?
Any hand that has 56% equity vs BBs 25% pushing range, so AJo+, ATs+ 88+

Please post your comments, and answers to some or all of the questions.

i like this hand better. folding wars suck

Originally posted by pzhon
Questions:
1) What range do you give the BTN for limping?

depends a bit on the reg dynamic, I would say something like AT+,77+ would be good here to trap the BB.

2) What range do you give the BB for pushing for 15 bb total after the BTN limps in and the SB completes?

again, depends on reg dynamic, against a reg that never limps the BB should push something like AQ+ 99+ while assuming the BTN is trapping him. But the point of the BTN trapping is to get the aggressive reg to push very wide over him (closer to 25%). Ill assume the BB is a good reg and knows that BTN is trapping here a large % so he is only shoving 6%.

3) What range do you give the BTN for calling?

his entire limping range, assuming his limp is a tarp and not just a mis-click or failed attempt at cooperation.

4) How much equity does the BTN need against the BB's range to call the push?

no idea how to calculate this, seeing as we have a lot of scenarios,
1. BTN > SB > BB
2. BB > BTN > SB
3. SB > BTN > BB
4. SB > BB > BTN
5. BTN > BB > SB
6. BB > SB > BTN

no idea how to calculate the different scenarios in EQfold,EQwin,EQlose scenarios 3 way.... it seems complicated.

5) With which hands would this be a good play from the BTN?

again, depends on reg dynamic against thinking regs or good regs this is never a good play because they see right through it as a trap. Against bad regs or unknowns i guess i trap here with top 6% AQ+ 99+.

Imo limping is almost never good in this Spot, however in BB place I would decide the free Flop can't be a mistake quite often readless although most of the time I see him on sth like 87s which makes sense imo just because a lot of the time BB will take the free Play.

Thats why I would consider trapping here pretty terrible readless even though it might balance the 87s, this is just not important here - as soon as he starts pushing wide, our limping Range in similar Spots will be super narrow, so that you can assume, he will pick up on that fairly easily. It seems far better to minraise a lot of hands that play well vs sbs range, it seems far easier to exploit the BB that way than with a limp.

I won't give my answer yet, but let me give some more thoughts.

One potentially useful bit of information is that this was on a site where it is not clear whether a player is sitting out. The SB was not sitting out, but it is possible that the BTN thought that he might be sitting out.

If the SB folds despite the great odds, then whether the BTN has limped or raised, he becomes quite risk-averse against the chip leader. Here is some data from my program ICM Explorer assuming that the SB folds.

After BTN limps, SB folds, BB shoves:

Fold: 4212 chips, 0.3612, SD: $8.47
Win: 9174 chips, 0.4356
Lose: 0 chips, 0.2
Tie: 4587 chips, 0.3669

Equity needed: 68.42%
Chip odds: 45.91%
Risk premium: 22.51%

After BTN raises to 750, SB folds, BB shoves:

Fold: 3762 chips, 0.3543, SD: $8.22
Win: 9174 chips, 0.4356
Lose: 0 chips, 0.2
Tie: 4587 chips, 0.3669

Equity needed: 65.51%
Chip odds: 41.01%
Risk premium: 24.51%

This means that if the SB folds, the BB will have a powerful resteal, and the BTN would have to fold hands as good as AK even if he puts the BB on a random hand. If he has to fold to a push either way, then the BTN would prefer to have wasted only 300 chips. Even if the BTN could call, this does not mean he would be happy to have entered the pot, or to have played the hand that way.

The BTN's limp might have been an attempt to get the SB to go all-in first before the BTN had to decide whether to commit more chips.

I don't think SB will be folding ever to a limp or a minraise?

Also if he was sitting out you probably could see that with all the instafolds b4 that? And if he only folded like 2 hands in a row imo theres still not enough reason to believe he is sitting out.
But say we are BU and knew hes sitting out it seems obv we should be minraising KK+ and prolly fold everything else?

Originally posted by TeddyTheKiller
Also if he was sitting out you probably could see that with all the instafolds b4 that? And if he only folded like 2 hands in a row imo theres still not enough reason to believe he is sitting out.
But say we are BU and knew hes sitting out it seems obv we should be minraising KK+ and prolly fold everything else?

It isn't clear what timing tells a multitabler would notice. If he is tiling, maybe he would see whether the SB has been sitting out. If he is stacking or cascading, then he probably won't see anything.

If the SB is sitting out, then I think the BTN might trap with AA, but should play push/fold with almost all of the hands he will play. He can push much wider than he could call all-in, maybe 10-15% including decent aces, decent pairs, and some better suited broadways. Similarly, the second stack can push into the chip leader on the bubble with a much wider range than he can call, since getting called is unlikely.

True, forgot about the pushing option

1. My opinion is that BTn will limp with only 2 pocket pairs: KK and AA. I guess that might be a trap for BB, as SB is forced to go all in with any two and doesn't want's to scare the BB.

2. I don't think that the complete from the SB is a problem and his action won't make a difference for BB. Being agressive, his range might be AJs,AQ+, TT+, if we consider that he noticed BTN limps. If not, I think he'll push looser, like 20%.

3. I assumed that this was his plan, so I stick with those two pocket pairs.

4. I think the equity needed is 8% for a safe call.

5. I still think this is a good plan with only those pairs, and maybe with QQ. But I'd never limp with these ones, at least at my limit.

Before I give my thoughts on the other questions, I want to provide some calculations.

If the SB folds, and the BB pushes, how much equity does the BTN need against the BB's range to call? My program ICM Explorer does the ICM calculations for questions like this:

Fold: 4212 chips, 0.3612
Win: 9174 chips, 0.4356
Lose: 0 chips, 0.2
Tie: 4587 chips, 0.3669

Equity needed: 68.42%
Chip odds: 45.91%
Risk premium: 22.51%

The second stack has to be quite risk-averse if the SB folds. If the BTN minraises instead of limping, then he gets slightly better odds, but still needs 66.48% equity to call the push.

By contrast, if the SB calls with a wide range, then the BTN does not have to be nearly as risk-averse against a shove by the big blind. Exactly how risk-averse depends on the SB's equity against the big stack and some correlations between the winner of the main pot and the winner of the side pot.

ICM Explorer is not designed to handle multiway pots. SNG Wizard is, although it takes some work to get the right numbers out of it. Put the short stack on the button and the medium stack in the big blind, and let both the short stack and the big stack push in front of the medium stack who has posted a blind of 300. Make sure Tools->Options->Analysis->Show analysis details is set to True. (I think the default is false.) Then you can see the equities in various cases.

For example, if we give the short stack a 100% range, the big stack a 30% range, and AKo to the medium stack, then SNG Wizard reports that it is right by a lot to call, by 1.63%.

The value of folding is 35.80%. That is a weighted average of 35.1% if the short stack wins and 36.2% if the big stack knocks out the short stack.

If the medium stack's AK loses to the big stack, he has 27.4% equity since the big stack beats the short stack, too, about 75% of the time.

If the medium stack's AK beats the big stack, he has 43.3% equity. In this case, the short stack survives 28% of the time.

So, calling risks about 8.4% to gain 7.5%, and the medium stack needs about 52.8% equity against the big stack's range once the short stack is all-in. That is quite a contrast from the 68.4% if the short stack folds. AKo would be an easy call since it is far ahead of a 30% pushing range.

I believe the BTN limped with the intention of folding often if the SB folded, but calling often if the SB called and then the BB pushed.