Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($167)
BB ($105)
Hero ($101)
CO ($58.80)
BTN ($105)
Dealt to Hero 9♦ 9♥
Hero raises to $3, fold, BTN raises to $10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $24, BTN raises to $105 (AI), fold
BTN wins $49.50
villain is a winning reg. 24/19, 3bt 9, fold 4bet 0 (0/3). Options for this hand are: fold to 3bet, call 3bet, 4bet/call, 4bet/fold.
Whats best vs this opp?
Depends a bit on how he sees you, but against a 3bet-range of 9% a 4bet/call is usually slightly -EV with 99, so I'd probably just fold to his 3bet (in this spot it's probably even a bit tighter since you opened in MP).
Because it's -EV ♦.
I once did the math for TT, he needs to 3bet 10%-11% at least to make 4bet/call profitable.
Ofc it also depends on the range he gets it in with, but in general 10%-11% should be a good approximation.
If you want I can do the math once more, but imo you should also try it for yourself ;-).
Because it's -EV .
I once did the math for TT, he needs to 3bet 10%-11% at least to make 4bet/call profitable. If you want I can do the math once more, but imo you should also try it for yourself ;).
Ok, I think you meant 4bet/fold when you said it's -EV (that's what I was asking about), but maybe both 4bet/fold & 4bet/call are -EV so I'll try to see which is worse.
Assume eff stack of $100, we raise $3.00, villain 3bet $10, we 4bet to $24...
Assume villain 5bet jam 3.02% {JJ+, AKs, AKo}
Therefore villain folds 2/3 of the time to our 4bet and jams 1/3 of time.
Cost of 4bet = $21 ($24-$3). So...
4bet/call (same as a 4bet shove where villain calls):
0.666 * ($3+$10+$1.50 = $14.50) = $9.67 plus
0.333 * (0.332 * ($100+$3+$1.5) = $34.694 less (0.668 * $97 = $64.796) = -$10.02
total ev = -$0.35
4bet/fold:
0.666 * ($3+$10+$1.50 = $14.50) = $9.67 less
0.333 * $21 = $6.993
total ev = $2.68
So it looks like if villain's 3betting range is exactly 9% and his 5bet shove range is exactly 3%, we can profitabaly 4bet/fold, but should not 4bet call with 99 or TT. Is my maths correct and do you agree with the conclusion?
p.s. plse check my figures - there is normally a mistake 
pp. I just checked this on Xarry's spreadsheet and I think it says I need 69.25% FEQ for b/e which suggests I have got the maths wrong 
since we only get 66%
nice hand, nice calculations.
IMO
This is similar to your previous spot in AQ OOP against light 3-bettor. I think 4-bet / fold is good on NL100, if his 4+bet range is quite tight. But in case he is aggressive reg capable of 5-bet light (like I am ♦ ) w suited connectors or pocket pairs, you can consider 4-bet/call (which is really high variance play) or just fold to 3bet directly.
--> If he is aggressive reg capable of 5-betting light (you can check his 4+bet stats, if it is higher than 5%, it means he is capable), I rather fold against his 3-bet directly if I don´t wanna call it for entire stack.
CONCLUSION:
- if his 4+bet range is tight (0-3%), you can 4bet / fold
- if his 4+bet range is wider (5%+), you can fold to 3bet directly or 4bet/call to catch him bluffing with lower pocket pair, connectors or potentially flip a coin against overcards
ps - this one had a fold to 4 bet 0% so usually this would not be a good spot for 4bet/fold (but you don´t have big sample, just 0/3 so it is more or less irrelevant)..
In case he does not fold to 4-bet frequently, you should find yourself folding to 3bet or 4bet/calling.
Originally posted by Tim64
Because it's -EV .
I once did the math for TT, he needs to 3bet 10%-11% at least to make 4bet/call profitable. If you want I can do the math once more, but imo you should also try it for yourself ;).Ok, I think you meant 4bet/fold when you said it's -EV (that's what I was asking about), but maybe both 4bet/fold & 4bet/call are -EV so I'll try to see which is worse.
Assume eff stack of $100, we raise $3.00, villain 3bet $10, we 4bet to $24...
Assume villain 5bet jam 3.02% {JJ+, AKs, AKo}
Therefore villain folds 2/3 of the time to our 4bet and jams 1/3 of time.Cost of 4bet = $21 ($24-$3). So...
4bet/call (same as a 4bet shove where villain calls):
0.666 * ($3+$10+$1.50 = $14.50) = $9.67 plus
The foldequity is caclulated correctly, but I don't get the following, so I'll do it also.
What does the 0.332 (I also marked it below) mean or where do you get this number?
0.333 * (0.332 * ($100+$3+$1.5) = $34.694 less (0.668 * $97 = $64.796) = -$10.02
0.333*(0.336*$203.5-$98)= $-9,86
[percentage_of_time_this_occurs (33%) * ([potequity](33.6% aganist JJ+,AK)*[total_pot]($203.5 including blinds)-[invested_money]($98 effectively))total ev = -$0.35
4bet/fold:
0.666 * ($3+$10+$1.50 = $14.50) = $9.67 less
0.333 * $21 = $6.993
total ev = $2.68
This one seems to be all right.
So it looks like if villain's 3betting range is exactly 9% and his 5bet shove range is exactly 3%, we can profitabaly 4bet/fold, but should not 4bet call with 99 or TT. Is my maths correct and do you agree with the conclusion?p.s. plse check my figures - there is normally a mistake
pp. I just checked this on Xarry's spreadsheet and I think it says I need 69.25% FEQ for b/e which suggests I have got the maths wrong
Actually I'm surprised that this is so close, probably my memory is hazy ♦.
However, I think once we 4bet we can't fold.
You have to consider that this is the absolute worse case scenario, every better pocket pair gets it in and he never shoves something like AQ, not to speak of bluffs.
As to the figure you Queried, my version of EQuilator gives 99 vs {JJ+, AKs, AKo} as 33.168% (so I rounded to 33.2%). This is instead of your 0.336 figure.
Then I just "pretended" villains stack and heros stack = $100 (for simplicity).
So, using your formula: 0.333*(0.332*$201.5-$97)= $-10.03
Anyway, we seem to get more or less the same figures, so on that basis 4bet/call seems breakeven (and it may be +EV if villain has AQ or bluffs even just some of the time).
However, 4bet/fold seems to have a higher expectation, no?
i think the problem is that reg w 3b 9% (which really consists of many semibluffs etc) in situation mp vs btn would be tightener while he could just call much of his hands ip. Am i wrong?
блОгородный днEVник
♠_rolleyes:> ♠_confused:> ♠_cool:
Originally posted by Tim64
However, 4bet/fold seems to have a higher expectation, no?
According to our calculations, yes.
But again: These calculations assume he 3bet/shoves aces, kings, queens, AK, etc 100% of the time and he never bluffs or spazzes out with a lower pocket pair or AQ/AJ - in short: they simplify the scenario in a way that most likely biases the results.
So once I 4bet I'd definitely call the shove with TT, our equity is just too good to fold.
One more thing to consider is the metagame:
By 4bet/folding the opponent might be inclined to 5betbluff us in the future whereas when he sees we're getting it in with TT he might even be 3betting less because he knows we have a relatively wide range for 4bet/calling, so his 3bets don't work as often.
Originally posted by VzLOM
i think the problem is that reg w 3b 9% (which really consists of many semibluffs etc) in situation mp vs btn would be tightener while he could just call much of his hands ip. Am i wrong?
He might be tighter in regards to hands like AJ, AT, KJ, etc which he would 3bet OOP but call IP, but if he still has 9% 3bet on the BU this means he has a lot more bluffs in his 3bettingrange, so our foldequity is even better.
