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[Closed] weird spot in sat buble time

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TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

34 left 30 are getting 55T$ (this is 5.5$ rebuy turbo sat for DNG)
blinds are going 1k/2k 160 ante next hand
if I'm folding all the way i'm expecting to get ITM more then 85% of time.
if i win this pot im 100% itm...
if is this fold, what r we shoving here QQ+??

PokerStars - $5+$0.50|800/1600 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP+1: 6,950.00
LP: 8,756.00
CO: 6,424.00
BTN: 5,675.00
Hero (SB): 6,171.00
BB: 10,928.00
UTG: 13,854.00
UTG+1: 5,840.00
MP: 12,485.00

MP+1 posts ante 150.00, LP posts ante 150.00, CO posts ante 150.00, BTN posts ante 150.00, Hero posts ante 150.00, BB posts ante 150.00, UTG posts ante 150.00, UTG+1 posts ante 150.00, MP posts ante 150.00, Hero posts SB 800.00, BB posts BB 1,600.00

Pre Flop: (3750.00) Hero has T♦ T♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero ?????


12 replies

I'm shoving this because i think bb is not having a very wide calling range here eighter. He's got a nice stack so there's not much need to risk too much.

Chances of villain getting TT+ AK are slim but if so , then Unlucky!


larseda
Joined: 06.08.2006

Originally posted by Tibovw
I'm shoving this because i think bb is not having a very wide calling range here eighter. He's got a nice stack so there's not much need to risk too much.

Chances of villain getting TT+ AK are slim but if so , then Unlucky!

#2

I push this ... u just have 4 bb and its getting close to get itm just by folding


Albeback
Joined: 02.03.2009

if I'm folding all the way i'm expecting to get ITM more then 85% of time.

You actually already answered: you are folding even AA if you are actually sure that is true.


TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

Originally posted by Albeback

if I'm folding all the way i'm expecting to get ITM more then 85% of time.

You actually already answered: you are folding even AA if you are actually sure that is true.

yea i'm sure but 85% are not 100% i'm never folding QQ+

the thing is that when we have TT there are a lot of bigger PP (jj+) that guy in BB can wake up with and we r drawing very slim vs them,
+ he can call (cos we dont know how good or crazy this guy is) with AJ+, KQ, KJ,QJ,KJ and we r flipping vs that range and we really dont want that


Albeback
Joined: 02.03.2009

Even with AA you do not have more than 85% so it would be correct to fold. So with QQ you pretty much have to. But that does take a lot of discipline. Not sure I could do it though. But equity wise I know that this would right.
TT is a clear fold for me however in this case.

Sorry I just realized it was folded to you. In this case it is a push. I thought it was already raised.


TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

no u dint get me right
the thing is that when u have QQ+ u have blockers to his calling range that can suck out on u and he need more then 1 pair most of the times to win

and BB would call very tight in that spot so shoving should be +EV with like 80% of range for sure but the real problem is ICM factor


Jehudas
Joined: 15.05.2008

pretty standard shove... Don't know 'bout BB, but he should be kinda risk-averse as he'll be crippled if he loses... I'd make advantage of this and shove even smaller PP into him
You should probabaly as yourself: "Are you playing to get ITM or are you playing to win?"


TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

Originally posted by Jehudas
pretty standard shove... Don't know 'bout BB, but he should be kinda risk-averse as he'll be crippled if he loses... I'd make advantage of this and shove even smaller PP into him
You should probabaly as yourself: "Are you playing to get ITM or are you playing to win?"

i dont want to be rude but u should probably read the thread right/whole way before comment

IS A FCKING BUBBLE IN A SATELLITE


alejandrosh
Joined: 02.07.2008

Originally posted by larseda

Originally posted by Tibovw
I'm shoving this because i think bb is not having a very wide calling range here eighter. He's got a nice stack so there's not much need to risk too much.

Chances of villain getting TT+ AK are slim but if so , then Unlucky!

#2

I push this ... u just have 4 bb and its getting close to get itm just by folding

which range are you pushing here?


TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008

this is not about range i will push imo
we r expecting BB to call tight in that spot, right?
so his range should be lets say 99+,AQ+ so thats like 7% of hands dealt, so he should be folding like 90%+ of the time = we have unexploitable push with almost any 2 cards in that spot (with hero stack and all those dead $$ in the pot)

the thing here imo is should we fold no mater what we have cos is sat and if nothing weird happens= we get unlucky and all short stacks get lucky we will win sit

hero have 1 whole orbit to fold(+ hand when he will be in BB+SB, thats total like 11 hands) and some of the shorties will be all in in BB/SB or blind out with ante way before hero gets all in imo....
there are 34 left, hero stack is ~20 if he folds, 30 are wining sit

i think in this spot we should be folding our way itm...

i thought of that to fold mine way itm (and i think that is only profitable strategy in sat, when u get to some point in chips u should just fold itm) , but I decide that TT are way to strong to fold in that spot and i push (which i think is wrong play/strategy cos cards doesnt mater in this spot, but I as many of us hate folding) BB tank call with AK and hit A


Albeback
Joined: 02.03.2009

His call was quite horrible actually I think. He can easily fold his way into the money so he should literally dump everything including AA.


larseda
Joined: 06.08.2006

Originally posted by Albeback
His call was quite horrible actually I think. He can easily fold his way into the money so he should literally dump everything including AA.

#2

he cant call this
but if he call this u had to push tighter ...

but even then ... tt is da push