Ribbo's sports betting thread.

Oh my god. I don't think I ever saw this much text together!

Is it necessary to bet on such a big spread of events or would it be possible to focus on say 2-3 different types of sporting events (say soccer and basketball) and still earn the kinds of money u have been earning?

Originally posted by Ribbo
Want to be as cool as me when it comes to sports betting?

Here is a great WALL OF TEXT article for those wanting to try out American Football sports betting by my good friend Seth Burn.

Welcome to the 2010 edition of my football preview. My name is Seth Burn and I will be your host for the next 30 (hopefully) pages or so. I would like to apologize in advance if this goes a little long. Before I begin I would like to define some terms:

Expected Wins: These are the implied wins set by the trading markets. If a team were given an over-under of eight wins such that a wager of 100 would return 220 total on the over (+120), and a wager of 140 would return 240 on the under (-140) the team would have an expected value of approximately 7.7 wins (8 - .3). A basic rule of thumb is that each basis point is worth 1/100th of a win, so a team with an line of over 6.5 -160, under 6.5 +140 would be expected to win 7 games. Please note, I do not wish to condone gambling. I include these win totals because they are the de facto median expectation for the teams.

Scouting Wins: This is a formula based upon positional values. The offense gets four values: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers + tight ends, and offensive line. Quarterbacks are by far the most important offensive position, then offensive line is more important than running backs or the wide receiving corps. The defense has three values: defensive line, linebacker corps, and the secondary, with the defensive line being the most important and the secondary being the least important. And last and least are the special teams rankings. The reason special teams are valued so low is because they are so fluid and unpredictable. A team can have a top 5 special teams value one year, and a bottom 5 special teams value the next without having made many changes. Once those 8 values are given their appropriate weight I produce a team value. I then created a value for the difficulty of that team’s schedule and solved for the expected wins against that strength of schedule.

DVOA Wins: These are taken directly from Football Outsiders 2010 Almanac (a book that I highly recommend if you have a strong interest in football). Their formula, Defense adjusted Value Over Average – or DVOA – is fairly complicated and is based on the success rates of each play of the game. It creates values for offense, defense, and special teams. The formula looks for anomalies like an over performance on third down that is unlikely to be repeated. When a team has been “clutch” one season or one game, Football Outsiders generally expects a regression. Football Outsiders has been very good at predicting teams who are due for a rise or a fall, although to be fair they also had the Rams winning 8.0 games last season. I highly recommend that you check out their website (www.footballoutsiders.com if you wish to learn more about their methodology.) * (Since Football Outsiders updated their win projections for ESPN the Magazine I will use the win projections from ESPN and not the Almanac).

Kubiak- The head coach of the Houston Texans.

KUBIAK- The player projection system created by Football Outsiders. If you are a baseball fan you should think of PECOTA as the inspiration.

SackSEER: A secret sauce made up of vertical leap, short shuttle time, games played (or more specifically, lack of games missed), and SRAM (which is roughly an estimated sack rate). SackSEER gives an estimate of production of a player’s first five years in the NFL. Also, please note the lack of a 40-time in the secret sauce. Well done Football Outsiders.

Speed Score- A measure of effective playing speed. The two inputs are 40-time (velocity) and weight (mass). F = MV. J

Pythagorean wins- The amount of wins a team would normally win given the amount of points they scored and allowed. The formula is similar to points scored ^ 2.4 / (points allowed ^ 2.4 + points scored ^ 2.4)

Let’s start with the most valuable division in football (according to Forbes), the NFC East:

2010 Projected standings:

Dallas Cowboys 11-5

New York Giants 10-6

Philadelphia Eagles 9-7

Washington Redskins 5-11

Dallas Cowboys

Expected Wins- 10.11

Scouting Wins- 9.88

DVOA Wins- 7.5

2009 Record- 11-5

One of those projections is not like the other. Let’s go back to 2006:

2006 DVOA Wins: 7.5

2006 Record: 9-7

2006 Pythagorean Wins: 9.8

Alright, the Cowboys outplayed their projections by 1.5 wins, and it wasn’t luck that led to that record. How about 2007?

2007 DVOA Wins: 6.4

2007 Record: 13-3

2007 Pythagorean Wins: 11.0

Oops. Better luck next time?

2008 DVOA Wins: 8.1

2008 Record: 9-7

2008 Pythagorean Wins: 7.9

Aha! I’ll call that a hit. Did the DVOA projection system finally have a read on the Cowboys?

2009 DVOA Wins: 8.0

2009 Record: 11-5

2009 Pythagorean Wins: 11.3

Nope. 4 year accumulated projections:

2006-2009 DVOA Wins: 30.0

2006-2009 Record: 42-22

2006-2009 Pythagorean Wins: 40.0

That averages out to a four-year DVOA projection of… whadda ya know, it’s 7.5! If history is any indication that means we should expect about 10 wins from the Cowboys and wow, that’s just what the boys in the desert think! As far as I can tell the biggest reason for this discrepancy is the Cowboys’ continued good health. The Cowboys have invested in a lot of top-level talent and have questionable depth behind it. Normally when teams try this, the natural wear and tear of the NFL season renders that strategy ineffective. Inevitably key players get hurt and the backups are exposed. For the most part this is a fate the Cowboys have avoided. This isn’t to say Cowboys avoid injuries entirely, but that the medical staff helps keep injured players on the field and playing at a reasonably high level. This year DVOA has a specific problem with the Cowboys: The offensive line. We’ll get to that in a bit, but first let’s talk about the glamour boys on the ‘Boys.

QB Tony Romo has earned a reputation as a gunslinger. In 2007 and 2008 he threw for 62 touchdowns and 33 interceptions. Last year he managed to keep his touchdown rate high while throwing only 9 interceptions. He also improved his ball control when scrambling by keeping two hands on the ball. He probably won’t be quite as effective in 2010 as he was in 2009, but even so he is only a small step beneath the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. If he manages to improve in 2010 he’ll be in the discussion for the best quarterback in football. It helps that he has an pretty good group to throw to: WR’s Miles Austin, Dez Bryant

, Roy Williams, and TE Jason Witten. Miles Austin is a very good receiver with a great attitude and work ethic. He broke out last year and performed as well as people were expecting Roy Williams to perform. Speaking of Roy, he is proving to be Jerry Jones’ biggest misfire (although his previous misfire on safety Roy Williams was pretty bad too). He has tremendous physical talent but absolutely awful hands and a gutless attitude. Some wide receivers treat a pass over the middle as a chance to break a big play. Others view it as a chance to move the chains and then get on the ground before getting hit. Roy Williams seems to view it as a punishment. WR Dez Bryant was supposed to break in as the slot receiver but he has an ankle injury that has delayed his progress. The Cowboys were tremendously lucky to be able to trade for him (technically they traded for the 24th pick in the draft). I had him rated as the top WR in the draft, and the most valuable non-QB offensive player in the draft. He dropped in the draft due to concerns about his character. I felt and still feel those concerns were wildly overblown. TE Jason Witten is often referred to as Romo’s favorite target, and if that is the case it is for good reason. Witten caught 76% of the balls sent his way last season. Witten is a future Hall of Famer in his prime.

The Cowboys have three quality running backs. Marion Barber is the most physical of the three and played through nagging injuries last year. He looks to be healthy right now and should be an effective every-down back for the Cowboys. Felix Jones is explosive and has breakaway speed. Tashard Choice was highly effective but was only handed the ball 64 times. Given the effectiveness of the passing game it is clear that at least one, and possibly two, of these backs will be severely underutilized. A quote from the 2010 Almanac: “You should jump on him (Choice) if Barber gets traded. If Choice is the one who gets dealt, though, he will probably be overvalued; he won’t get to bring along the Cowboys offensive line.”

It isn’t like Football Outsiders is out on a limb when criticizing the offensive line, the scouts agreed it was the major offensive weakness. The truth of the matter is last year the offensive line was excellent at run blocking, particularly to the left side. OL Coach Hudson has been highly successful for years working with oversized offensive lineman and getting them to work effectively as a unit. Tony Romo was a sitting duck vs. the Vikings with Flozell Adams out with an injury. Adams has since been let go. The Cowboys traded for Alex Barron, a move that can not be particularly comforting for Romo. Left guard Kyle Kosier will likely miss the start of the season with a strained MCL. Right tackle Marc Colombo might miss the start of the season due to arthroscopic knee surgery. The Cowboys understand that their offensive line could be a problem and have made efforts to bolster the depth of the unit, but if any more starters miss time Romo could be in trouble again.

LB DeMarcus Ware gets most of the attention, but it might be NT Jay Ratliff who causes the most offensive consternation. Both are elite players. Ratliff usually draws a double-team and frees up other players on defense to attack the ball. He also provides a solid pass rush while maintaining strong gap coverage against the run. Ware is solid against the run and one of the best pass-rushers in football. Like Ware, LB Anthony Spencer is an aggressive pass-rusher and good run stuffer. Both often play on the line, giving the Cowboys a 5-2 look. DE’s Igor Olshansky and Marcus Spears are good run-stuffers who eat up blocks. Inside linebacker Keith Brooking appreciates that. His strengths are recognition and tackling and he is highly effective within the Cowboys’ system. The Cowboys have pretty good depth throughout the front seven (a rarity, as depth is usually not a Cowboy specialty), but their reliance on a few elite players has led the Cowboys’ defense to wear down as the game proceeds.

In 2009, CB Mike Jenkins made the leap to elite cover corner and just needs to add run support to his skills to be one of the best at his position. Opposite him, Terence Newman is fading but is still a serviceable #2. The Cowboys are looking to move Jenkins around so that he consistently covers the #1 receiver. Free safety Alan Ball is effectively a 3rd cornerback. The Cowboys lack quality depth in the secondary and are vulnerable to teams with deep receiving corps.

The Cowboys have above-average special teams. Kicker David Buehler has one of the strongest legs in the NFL. It is unclear who will be returning kicks and punts but the fact is the Cowboys have plenty of good options in both cases. Punter Mat McBriar is pretty good at both booming punts and finesse punts. The biggest weakness for the Cowboys’ special teams was field goal accuracy, but history has shown that past years’ field goal accuracy is not very predictive.

In addition to Dez Bryant, I think the Cowboys got great value with their 2nd round pick Sean Lee (inside linebacker from Penn St.) and their 4th round pick (free safety Akwasi Owusu-Ansah from Indiana, PA). Lee will probably see some playing time on 3rd down. The Cowboys didn’t have a 3rd round pick.

Coach Wade Phillips doesn’t get a lot of respect but he has performed quite well over the past few years. There is some friction between him and owner Jerry Jones, mostly due to Jones feeling that he has the best idea of how to run the Cowboys.

On paper the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East and if they stay healthy they will be one of the NFC favorites to go to the Super Bowl. If they make it the Cowboys would be the first team to host a Super Bowl.

New York Giants

Expected Wins- 8.88

Scouting Wins- 9.51

DVOA Wins- 8.7

2009 Record- 8-8

In basketball there is the problem that you have a short supply of tall people. You might find a lot of people who have the requisite skills to be a great NBA player, but unfortunately almost all of them are shorter than 6-4. In the NFL the Giants ascribe to “The Planet Theory.” There simply aren’t that many people on the planet who can control the line of scrimmage. The Giants managed to win three Super Bowls with a plan of acquiring as many of these people as possible. What happened last year? The other part of the defense not covered by this philosophy was absolutely destroyed. Injuries were a part of the problem, but the fact is the Giants had people on their roster unqualified to play in the NFL. The new defensive plan is to play Tampa-2. There are some benefits and problems with this plan. The benefit is that Tampa-2 can mask athletic limitations in the secondary. The main problem is that it requires speed throughout the front-7 and secondary players who can provide run support. The Giants showed their lack of commitment to traditional Tampa-2 principles by going after DE Jason Pierre-Paul and DT Linval Joseph. I’m pretty happy with adding Joseph, but drafting JPP was a mistake. George Selvie was the best defender on the South Florida Bulls. Selvie ended up going in the 7th round to the Rams due to injury issues while JPP blew people away with his freakish physical skills. Unfortunately Sackseer was not impressed by said skills and doubts they can pay the bills. I’ll come back to the defense; right now let’s talk about the offense.

Eli Manning doesn’t get a lot of respect. When he won a Super Bowl, people rightly credited the defense for dominating the game. Since that game he has raised his level of performance to the point where he is now one of the 10 best quarterbacks in football, albeit not in the discussion for top 5. It would be exceedingly helpful if he cut down on his turnovers, particularly his fumbles. It might not be reasonable to expect him to pass like his brother, but Eli has fumbled 29 times in the last three seasons, while Peyton has fumbled 10 times. Just a little something to work on. While neither are stars, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks provide a nice pair of receivers for Manning. Nicks is a 6-3 monster who is very difficult to tackle after the catch. Smith has become the flanker. Mario Manningham still has the potential to break out but even if he doesn’t, he is fine as a third option. Tight end Kevin Boss is a fine option, particularly near the end zone, although Manning sometimes seems to forget he’s available.

The air attack looks good for the Giants, but the ground game has some issues. Ahmed Bradshaw isn’t particularly versatile and was nagged by a sprained ankle and cracked foot bones last season. Last year rookie Andre Brown looked to be a speed score sleeper in the 4th round but tore his left Achilles tendon and then had some setbacks in rehab. If he returns to 100% he’ll be an intriguing option. Brandon Jacobs absolutely sucked last year. He sucked in short yardage, particularly in the red zone. He sucked in terms of yards per carry. He sucked as a receiver. He did have nagging injuries and the offensive line severely regressed, but let’s be clear, Jacobs was a shadow of himself last season and he has a lot of work to do to restore the trust of the Giants’ coaching staff.

The offensive line might have had a tough season last year, but I love how it looks for 2010. If William Beatty can handle a promotion to left tackle, former left tackle David Diehl can move to left guard. Center Shaun O’Hara and right guard Chris Snee are both quite good, although Snee has some nagging injuries which are hurting his play, as does O’Hara. The Giants weren’t particularly happy with Kareem McKenzie at right tackle and they may have found a much better option with the… surprising? Stunning? Shocking Shawn Andrews signing. Andrews was a bust in Philadelphia, but his potential was tremendous and if the Giants can get him to perform up to his level of talent they will have a mammoth upgrade on the right side of the line. The other option is to use Andrews to spell Snee when Snee needs to nurse his injuries.

The Giants have invested a lot of high draft picks and free agency cash on the defensive line. Defensive ends Justin Tuck, Matthias Kiwanuka, Osi Unenyiora, and JPP are expected to provide a serious pass rush. Umenyiora had a down year in 2009 but I expect him to bounce back. He clashed with the coaching staff before last season but is in a markedly better frame of mind this year. Tuck and Kiwanuka were unlucky to only have 9 sacks between them given how often and active they were in the offensive backfield. Look for them to be more effective this season. You know how I feel about JPP (pretty effing bad.) Tuck, Kiwanuka, and Umenyiora all want to start, but there should be plenty of playing time to go around. The problem for the Giants isn’t the defensive ends, it’s everything else.

The Giants had no interior pass rush and little push in short yardage situations. While I like Linval Joseph, it will take him some time to get into NFL shape, as he had conditioning problems in college. Between Barry Cofield, Chris Canty, Jay Alford, Rocky Bernard, and Joseph, the Giants do have plenty of defensive tackle depth, but not much quality. That would be less of a problem if they were only asking the tackles to keep offensive linemen off of an elite linebacker corps.

The Tampa-2 system generally needs fast linebackers with good coverage skills. The Giants drafted a good Tampa-2 style linebacker in the 4th round. Dillard was a good coverage linebacker in the pass-happy Big 12. Michael Boley is an excellent athlete and has the physical skills to transition to the new defense. Boley wasn’t quite a bust as a free agent, but he wasn’t what the Giants were hoping for either. Perhaps the new system will redeem him. Clint Sintim is a big too large and slow to fit the traditional Tampa-2 mold, but he is very strong near the line of scrimmage. Keith Bullock has seen practice time at both inside and outside linebacker, and appears to be set to play on the outside. The Giants have pretty good depth at inside linebacker with Chase Blackburn, Gerris Wilkinson, and Bryan Kell, along with rookie Dillard. Wilkinson in particular has been impressive in practice and might move up the depth chart. 6th round pick Adrian Tracy is a Sackseer sleeper. Thank goodness.

The Tampa-2 system generally needs fast linebackers with good coverage skills. The Giants drafted a good Tampa-2 style linebacker in the 4th round. Dillard was a good coverage linebacker in the pass-happy Big 12. Michael Boley is an excellent athlete and has the physical skills to transition to the new defense. Boley wasn’t quite a bust as a free agent, but he wasn’t what the Giants were hoping for either. Perhaps the new system will redeem him. Clint Sintim is a big too large and slow to fit the traditional Tampa-2 mold, but he is very strong near the line of scrimmage. Keith Bullock has seen practice time at both inside and outside linebacker, and appears to be set to play on the outside. The Giants have pretty good depth at inside linebacker with Chase Blackburn, Gerris Wilkinson, and Bryan Kell, along with rookie Dillard. Wilkinson in particular has been impressive in practice and might move up the depth chart. 6th round pick Adrian Tracy is a Sackseer sleeper. Thank goodness.

Injuries destroyed the secondary in 2009 and it appears there will be a carryover. Safety Kenny Phillips injury woes have caused the Giants to make some bad decisions, chief among them the free agent signing of Antrel Rolle. The Giants also brought in former Seahawk Deon Grant. Grant is 31 and is on the decline, but he will be better than the flotsam the Giants had playing safety last year. 3rd round pick Chad Jones was seriously injured in an automobile accident and his playing career is in doubt. Cornerbacks Terrell Thomas and Corey Webster look to have won the starting jobs. Thomas was excellent as an injury replacement last year. Aaron Ross should be effective in nickel formations, although in an oddity he might be given outside responsibilities instead of playing against the slot receiver despite not being a starter. Thomas is excellent in the slot and Ross would probably stay outside. The Giants hope Webster returns to his 2008 form, and not his injury weakened 2009 performance. There is a lot of curiosity throughout the NFL as to how well the Giants secondary will adapt to the change in system. Count me in as one of the people who is wondering how this works out.

7th round pick P Matt Dodge is still working out some kinks when it comes to directional punting, but he looks like a good pick. Kicker Lawrence Tynes seems to have gotten his groove back and looks good to start the season.

The Giants are more than a dark horse threat to win the NFC. They still have an excellent pass rush and should bounce back in the secondary. If the team adjusts to their new defensive scheme, the Giants will challenge the Cowboys for dominance over the NFC East. Offensively, the biggest question is whether or not the line returns to its prior level of play. I’m also a bit concerned that the team might turn against coach Tom Coughlin if they struggle early. My prediction is that the Giants will start strong and return to the playoffs after a 1-year hiatus.

Philadelphia Eagles

Expected Wins- 8.19

Scouting Wins- 7.02

DVOA Wins- 9.2

2009 Record- 11-5

Philadelphia won't have Donovan McNabb to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is now the era of Kevin Kolb. I fully expect Kolb to take advantage of his opportunity. He doesn’t have McNabb’s ability to throw deep, so DeSean Jackson will have to adjust his routes, but unlike McNabb, Kolb is not a proponent of the bounce pass into the post. Kolb’s accuracy should revitalize the Eagles’ passing game. Kolb might throw more interceptions than McNabb, but that is because McNabb too often threw balls that neither team could possibly catch. In addition to the accuracy bonus, the Eagles should also benefit from Kolb’s quick release. Kolb will have to improve his third down effectiveness, as the Eagles would often check down to the easy completion that failed to achieve a first down. Mike Vick might see a little more playing time now that he is more familiar with the Eagles’ system.

The Eagles rushing game was effective in 2009, but because they ran only 301 times last year,much of that success can be attributed to the surprise factor. LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver look to split most of the carries. Weaver has tremendous size and good blocking and receiving technique. McCoy is an every-down back who can pound inside and outside. Mike Bell might steal some of the carries in the red zone, although I think I’d give those carries to McCoy and Weaver until they proved ineffective.

DeSean Jackson is an elite receiver and should be highly effective with Kolb throwing to him. Jeremy Maclin had a strong rookie season and should continue to improve. He looks to fit the new offensive scheme quite well. Jason Avant was exceedingly effective in the red zone and on third down. He has great hands and can take advantage of the holes created by Jackson’s and Maclin’s speed. Tight end Brent Celek has a bit of a drops problem, but is still quite effective due to his ability to beat most linebacker or safety coverage

Left tackle Jason Peters proved to be an effective run blocker, but was poor as a pass blocker and maintained his reputation as a penalty machine. Right tackle Winston Justice had his best season and the Eagles were happy to re-sign him. Left guard Todd Herremans is quite good, and is a powerful run blocker. Herremans has been bothered by a sprained foot. Center Jamaal Jackson is very good but was severely injured late last season and his health is still a concern. Right guard Stacy Andrews has been a disappointment. The offensive line has looked terrible in the preseason, with many of the starters out nursing injuries.

Defensive end Trent Cole is a monster and was the one player offenses had to gameplan around. Juqua Parker was pretty good opposite him but the Eagles are concerned that his level of play will decline. The Eagles drafted nine defensive players, five in the first 4 rounds. They ended up drafting three defensive ends. I like 1st round pick DE Brandon Graham, although neither I nor Sackseer see him as a future star. He should be a quality player for the Eagles. I was pretty unimpressed with 3rd round pick DE Daniel Te’O-Nesheim, but Sackseer strongly disagrees. The Eagles also signed DE Darryl Tap to help with their run defense. Defensive tackles Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson are excellent run stuffers but combined for a measly 2.5 sacks. DT Trevor Laws will play in dime situations. The Eagles actually have excellent depth and can put together a strong front four in any situation, so long as they have a good idea of what the offense wants to do.

MLB Stewart Bradley is recovering from ACL surgery. If he’s healthy he’ll be an aggressive defender, albeit not a great pass defender. The Eagles traded for Ernie Sims and he looks to start as a weakside linebacker. 4th round pick Keenan Clayton should see some playing time. I felt he was a reach. The Eagles are still trying out different options to play strongside linebacker. They might use Moise Fokou on first and second down, and bring in Alex Hall as a pass rusher on third down. Omar Gaither can play any of the linebacker positions. Unlike on the defensive line, the Eagles don’t have too many potential linebacker stars.

Even more than the linebacker corps, the Eagles’ secondary concerns me. Cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs were a successful pairing in New England but that was three years ago. Samuel is a gambler who will produce a lot of big plays for both teams via interceptions, missed tackles, and the occasional missed interception leading to a long gain for the offense. Hobbs was hurt last season and hasn’t been a good cornerback in years. If he proves ineffective, nickel cornerback Joselio Hanson will trade jobs with Hobbs. CB Demitri Patterson has had an excellent preseason and might work his way past both of them on the depth chart. Strong safety Quintin Mikell was excellent last year despite a few missed tackles. Free safety is an open competition that the Eagles hope is won by 2nd round pick Nate Allen. Allen isn’t particularly physical, but he moves very well and with some good coaching could blossom into a star. If Allen isn’t ready to start the job will likely go to Quintin Demps. Yes, the Eagles have two safeties named Quintin. I’m as shocked as you are.

The Eagles’ special teams were very good last year but kicker David Akers and punter Saverio Rocca are both elderly by NFL standards and could start declining. Both the punt and kick coverage teams were quite good. DeSean Jackson is an excellent punt returner, but I don’t know how long the Eagles will continue to risk his health. If they decide to take away his job, the Eagles have plenty of other options.

The Eagles won 11 games last year and if Kolb is an improvement over McNabb, the Eagles could win even more games this year. Unfortunately the Eagles can’t expect to end up +15 in turnover differential (one of the perks of McNabb’s willingness to throw uncatchable balls). There are concerns along the offensive line, and for the back seven on defense, but there are no flawless teams in the NFL. Andy Reid is still one of the better coaches in the NFL and I expect the Eagles to fight for a playoff spot. I don’t see them getting that spot due to offensive line issues and a tough schedule.

Washington Redskins

Expected Wins- 6.97

Scouting Wins- 6.81

DVOA Wins- 9.2

2009 Record- 4-12

I smell a disaster. Please don’t misunderstand me, last year was a disaster for the Redskins. This year they brought in Donovan McNabb. Last year they brought in Albert Haynesworth. McNabb is already dinged up and questionable for the opener against the Cowboys. Haynesworth is currently in a battle of wills against coach Shanahan. Oh, as to Shanahan, he was a pretty mediocre coach in Denver after Elway left. However, the real problem in Washington isn’t any of the players or coaches. Let’s look at the various owners in the division:

Dallas Cowboys- Jerry Jones: A bit self-aggrandizing, but eminently professional with a strong desire to win. Occasionally makes mistakes, but overall he regularly puts a strong product on the field.

New York Football Giants- John Mara and Steve Tisch: The Giants have maintained the same organizational philosophy since they hired George Young to run football operations in the 1979. There have occasionally been hiccups and bad runs (The Giants adapted very poorly to the free agency era), but like the Cowboys, the Giants can certainly be described as a highly professional organization.

Philadelphia Eagles- Jeffrey Lurie: Not quite as wealthy as the other owners in the NFC East, and perhaps a bit of a penny pincher, the Eagles have at times been criticized as cheapskates. However, the Eagles have also been astute and unemotional when building their roster. Like the Patriots they realized the importance of loading up on young cheap talent in the draft. It seems to have worked as the Eagles have won as many divisional titles in the last 10 years as the rest of the division combined.

Washington Redskins- Dan Snyder: Sues his fans. Fires coaches and public relations people when the mood strikes him. Trades draft picks away for big name players. Throws cash at big name free agents. It isn’t just that the Redskins have a bad organizational philosophy. It’s that they can’t maintain a consistent focus and follow a long-term plan. The Redskins should be trying to get younger and build for the future, but for the Redskins the future is always now. Joe Mendes, a former capologist for the Washington Redskins, says that ultimately, money alone will never win a championship. It's "culture and personality of the franchise," that matters. Barring some tremendous luck in the draft (which is unlikely even when you don’t throw picks away), the Redskins will be bad for a long time.

That isn’t to say that McNabb is toast. I think he still has some good games left in him, but I’m not sure if he has a good season in him. For most of his career, he’s played with mediocre receivers, but his last years with the Eagles he had good options. I’m not certain the same can be said of the Redskins. The supposed star of the receiving corps is Santana Moss, but his last few seasons have not been particularly good. Moss is on the wrong side of thirty and might simply not be the speedster he once was. Third year receivers Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas have failed to develop into the offensive threats the Redskins thought they were drafting. Kelly has been slowed by a hamstring injury. Thomas has simply been ineffective. Anthony Armstrong might have earned the #2 receiver job with a strong preseason, but that pretty much shows how little depth (and quality) the redskins have at wide receiver. Tight ends Fred Davis and Chris Cooley might become McNabb’s two favorite targets. Cooley is more of a TE/WR hybrid while Davis is the more physical of the two. Both are quite good and it would actually make sense to feature the two of them.

A lot of jokes have been made that the Redskins have 2006’s best rushing game on their roster. Running backs Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, and Willie Parker have had success in the past, but historically one of the great strengths of Shanahan’s offenses is that they turned young unknown running backs into aggressive, one-cut, 1000-yard rushers. Of course, Shanahan is also known for being a big fan of the rushing game by committee. Portis is a good blocker so he’ll provide some value to the offense beyond his running. The breakout star could be Ryan Torain if he can finally stay healthy for more than two games. * Willie Parker didn’t end up making the final 53 man roster.

The Redskins wisely addressed their offensive line problems via trades and the draft. 1st round pick Trent Williams has tremendous talent, but was taken to school in the preseason by Terrell Suggs. There are concerns about his laid back attitude. For now he’ll start at right tackle. Left tackle Jammal Brown came from the Saints in a trade and should be able to hold down the position while Williams matures. Center Casay Rabach and left guard Derrick Dockery provide stability on the inside of the line. Dockery is an odd fit for the zone blocking system, but he’s good enough to adapt. Right guard is still open to whomever wins the job but it appears that the Redskins have multiple decent options, so McNabb shouldn’t lose too much sleep. Mike Williams is the current favorite to win the job, and like Dockery he is a bit of an odd fit for the system.

Defensively, things start with DT Albert Haynesworth. If he is out there playing hard, offenses will be forced to double team him. That will open up opportunities for DE Andre Carter and LB Brian Orakbo. I’m not sure I can remember another player like Orakbo. He is only good at one thing (rushing the passer), and he only has one good move (speed rush). Carter was having a strong season until a biceps injury slowed him down. The Redskins are moving to a 3-4 defense under defensive coordinator Jim Haslett, but it isn’t a conventional 3-4. Haslett is a very aggressive coordinator and the ends and outside linebackers will be expected to attack rather than read and react. While I would disagree with that plan in general, that is a good fit for the current skill set the defense provides. Even when he is at his best, Haynesworth requires plenty of rest. Kedric Golston has performed well as a backup, but doesn’t have the size and strength you’d expect of a starter in today’s NFL. DE Adam Carriker was ineffective in St. Louis but should be a good fit in Washington. The Redskins have pretty good depth along their defensive line, but the quality of it depends entire on Haynesworth. When Haynesworth left Tennessee, their defense fell apart. If the Redskins cannot convince Haynesworth to play hard, a similar fate awaits them.

I like the starting four linebackers on the Redskins: Orakbo and H.B. Blades on the outside (and sometimes, Andre Carter might play in Blade’s spot), with London Fletcher and Rocky McCintosh on the inside. All four are good fits for their positions. Unfortunately, unlike the defensive line there isn’t much depth on the linebacking corps. Also, in a 3-4 system the linebackers need the nose tackle and defensive ends to occupy the offensive line and keep blockers from breaking into the second level. There will be a lot of pressure on the nose tackle.

The Redskins have three mediocre cornerbacks, but no great ones. DeAngelo Hall makes great plays, but is a me-first player and will take bad risks in an attempt to make great plays. Carlos Rogers simply isn’t very good. Phillip Buchanon is a serviceable nickelback. LaRon Landry wasn’t very good as a free safety, but is still quite talented and looks to be more of a natural fit as a strong safety. Reed Doughty is also better as a strong safety, but he will be asked to switch roles and handle the free safety responsibilities.

I have low expectations for the Redskins’ special teams. But wisely, the Redskins shared my expectations and made sure their late round draft picks had special teams experience. They also took care to sign undrafted free agent Brandon Banks. Banks is a former Big 12 special teams player of the year. He weighs about a buck-fifty with 4.4 speed.

Shanahan does have two Super Bowl rings, which is one more than the rest of the division has won. I don’t like what I have seen from the new coaching regime, but more than that, I don’t like the roster. There are pockets of talent, most notably at tight end, but this is an aging roster filled with big names who are long past their prime. That has been the Redskins’ plan for years, and it has produced failure after failure. The best thing the Redskins have going for them is a 4th place schedule. Another losing year and little relief in sight.

NFC North:

Projected Standings:

Green Bay Packers 12-4

Minnesota Vikings 10-6

Chicago Bears 6-10

Detroit Lions 4-12

Chicago Bears

Expected Wins- 7.72

Scouting Wins- 7.87

DVOA Wins- 9.0

2009 Record- 7-9

Mike Martz got 4,000+ yards out of Jon Kitna (a long time ago). That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Bears offensive line has already managed to get Jay Cutler sacked ten times in a little over five quarters in the preseason. The Bears hired former Vikings head coach Mike Tice to rebuild their offensive line, but it will take him some time. Left Tackle Chris Williams is an excellent run blocker, but he is overmatched in pass protection. I’ll simply say that the rest of the line as a unit is old and not particularly good at either pass protection or run blocking. In time Tice will change that.

In 2007 and 2008 combined, Jay Cutler threw for over 8,000 yards in Denver. Astonishingly he clashed with new coach Josh McDaniels and was shipped out of town. Expectations were high for the Bears last year but lousy pass protection, a weak receiving corps, and Cutler’s bad mechanics doomed the offense to failure. Ron Jawarski has suggested that improved mechanics will vastly improve Cutler’s accuracy and consistency. If Mike Martz can help Cutler improve and mature as a quarterback, we might see the explosive Bears passing game that we expected last season.

The Bears do have a nice backfield of Chester Taylor and Matt Forte. Forte had a poor sophomore season, as he was slow and hesitant after having MCL surgery last offseason. He should be back to form this year. He and Taylor have a similar skill set and both fit into the traditional Martz scheme. Both have good hands and Taylor is quite effective in pass protection. Neither of them had a good season last year, partly due to offensive line issues.

The Bears simply do not have a legitimate #1 wide receiver. Martz envisions Devin Hester as a dangerous slot receiver, which can work if Hester upgrades his route running skills. Johnny Knox might be a poor man’s Torry Holt. Martz has been working with him and will see if Knox can step up to be a #1 receiver. Devin Aromashodu has shown some flashes of talent, but has also disappeared for long stretches. Earl Bennett can serve as another possession receiver and might benefit from Martz’s schemes. Tight end Brandon Manumaleuna is expected to spend the majority of his playing time blocking. Tight end Greg Olson has never lived up to his talent, and tight ends are rarely featured in Martz’s schemes.

The Bears defense has a lot of big names who might not be as good as you remember. The most pressure is going to be on free agent pickup defensive end Julius Peppers. Actually, maybe pressure is the wrong word. Peppers has “got paid” and might be ready to relax this season, although he has looked excellent so far. The Bears released defensive ends Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, so Israel Idonije and Mark Anderson will have to step up across from Peppers. Defensive tackle Tommie Harris used to be one of the best defensive players in football, but has been in decline for years. He is only 27 so resurgence is not out of the question. The Bears have solid defensive line depth.

Outside linebacker Lance Briggs is still elite, but middle linebacker Brian Ulracher isn’t the star he once was. He was lost last season to a wrist injury and hopefully the rest has allowed him to regain his speed. He still has tremendous football smarts. After Briggs and Ulracher the Bears have a solid linebacker corps. They will be best served by going back to traditional Tampa-2 principles, as opposed to pure blitzing. The Bears linebacker corps simply doesn’t have the pure straight line speed that blitzing requires (see Orakbo, Brian). The hope is that Peppers and the defensive line can provide the pass rush the Tampa-2 needs. If not, the Bears will be forced to blitz too often again. Both Briggs and Ulracher have been dinged up in the preseason (ankle and calf respectively).

Cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Zack Bowman are a good fit for the Bears’ system, but neither is elite. Tillman is a good tackler, but injuries and time have rendered him merely very good. In Lovie Smith’s six years the Bears have had 20 free safeties and 20 strong safeties (there is some overlap). The top five safeties on the Bears depth chart have missed time due to injuries in the preseason. I like rookie strong safety Major Wright as an aggressive run stopper and occasional blitzer. Daniel Manning and Al Afalava currently top the depth charts for free and strong safety respectively. Wright might find his easiest access to the field as a nickel cornerback.

Even with Hester and Knox busy as wide receivers, the Bears still have excellent special teams. Punter Brad Maynard isn’t great, but the coverage units are excellent. Kicker Robbie Gould doesn’t have great kickoff length, but he does have good field goal length and has been an asset for the Bears.

Lovie Smith threw his coaching staff under the bus to save his job. The Bears have at least four coaches with NFL head coaching experience on their staff (Lovie Smith, Mike Martz, Mike Tice, Rod Marinelli). I am not sure how this will work out. I’ll be blunt: The offense comes down to whether or not the offensive line gives Mike Martz a chance to work his magic. The Bears might need to use TE Manumaleuna as a 6th offensive lineman. Defensively, the Bears aren’t the team you’d think they are (despite Dennis Green’s 2006 rant to the contrary). They don’t have an easy schedule and I’d view 8-8 as a solid season. I don’t think they’ll get there. The offense has looked awful in the preseason and Cutler might be losing confidence in both himself and his teammates. That would be a very bad downward spiral.

Detroit Lions

Expected Wins- 5.22

Scouting Wins- 4.24

DVOA Wins- 3.1

2009 Record- 2-14

Ousted general manager Matt Millen destroyed the Lions and it will be years before they return to respectability. They don’t have a single player on the roster from the 2002-2006 drafts. The only elite player drafted in the Millen era is WR Calvin Johnson. The fact is this roster is exceedingly bad, really only comparable to the Rams’. The good news is that there might be hope on the horizon.

Quarterback Matt Stafford was awful as a rookie. Injuries limited him to only ten games. He appears to have improved in the offseason and will have to continue that improvement if the Lions are to climb out of the cellar. Stafford has all the physical tools to be a great quarterback, now he just needs to become more accurate. If he can learn what kind of throws he can and cannot make, he’ll cut his interception rate down to a manageable level. That would help the Lions avoid repeating their -18 turnover differential from last season. I don’t worry that Stafford will have the same kind of problems that JaMarcus Russell had with the Raiders, as Stafford has a much higher work ethic and the Lions are currently a much better organization than the Raiders are (even with the terrible drafting described above). Stafford has a long way to go before being written off as a bust, but he will need to start showing signs of improvement this season.

Rookie running back Jahvid Best was highly productive in college. He had various durability issues in college, but should be able to contribute immediately. Kevin Smith will have to split carries with Best. Smith is coming off knee surgery, while Best has shown he can handle both receiving and blocking duties. The amount of carries Smith gets depends entirely on how careful the Lions wish to be with Best.

Wide receiver Calvin Johnson has been the one Lions player defenses have focused on stopping. He will finally catch a break this season as the Lions imported Nate Burleson from the Seahawks. Bryant Johnson failed in the role Burleson is currently slated to take. Dennis Northcutt has been ineffective as a slot receiver. Last season’s second 1st round pick tight end Brandon Pettigrew was starting to develop before he tore his ACL last season. TE Tony Scheffler is an excellent receiver, but a lousy blocker. If the Lions start to feature two tight end sets look for Scheffler to be the receiver while Pettigrew stays in to block. One final note: Johnson, Scheffler, and Pettigrew are all 6-5 or taller.

I’ve busted Millen’s balls, so let me cut Millen a bit of slack here: left tackle Jeff Backus and center Dominic Raiola were Millen’s first picks and they are still starters. Guards Rob Sims and Stephen Peterman are both serviceable veterans. The drama is at right tackle where third year veteran Gosder Cherilus has failed to reach his potential. If Cherilus proves ineffective, the Lions will have to go with Jon Jansen at right tackle. This isn’t a great offensive line either way, but it shouldn’t be so bad as to render the offense hopeless. Oh, one last thing: the Lions signed Tyler Polumbus. If you are a Lions fan you should hope Polumbus never sees the field.

The Lions have improved their defensive line in free agency (defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch), via trade (defensive tackle Corey Williams), and in the draft (Ndamukong Suh). Williams and KVB are on the wrong side of thirty and aren’t elite players, but they should help the Lions defense in the short term. Suh looks like an absolute monster. Defensive ends Cliff Avril and Jason Hunter surely appreciate the help. It came at a price, but the Lions actually have an above average defensive line in terms of both talent and depth. Kudos!

Linebacker Julian Peterson is the best of a weak group. Peterson is at his best attacking the passer, but his skills are generally needed elsewhere. I’d like DeAndre Levy a lot better if he hadn’t missed part of training camp with a back injury. He should still be an effective player for the Lions, and might even be a star in a year or two. Teams are going to attack whomever grabs the third starting spot, currently slated to be Zach Follett. As you might expect, the Lions linebacker depth is awful.

The Lions’ secondary will like include two cornerbacks that couldn’t stay on the rosters of last season’s 27th and 29th worst pass defenses in the NFL.. The best player, 2nd year safety Louis Delmas, is battling a groin injury. Quite frankly the Lions don’t have any good options in their secondary right now, so they must address these positions in the coming years. The Lions did pick up cornerback Amari Spievey in the 3rd round, but he will likely make more of an impact on special teams than in the secondary.

The Lions have bad special teams. Move on.

The good news for the Lions is that they have a very smart coach (Jim Schwartz), a young quarterback with a lot of potential, a great wide receiver, and a good defensive line with a potential future all-time talent. The bad news is that the team still has too many players that should not be on an NFL roster. It will take time for the Lions to rebuild their linebacker corps, their secondary, and pretty soon their offensive line as well. I’m also worried that the upward mobility of bad teams in the NFL has severely decreased in the modern era, but that is a topic that still requires more research.

Green Bay Packers

Expected Wins- 10.23

Scouting Wins- 9.52

DVOA Wins- 9.4

2009 Record- 11-5

Along with the Saints and Cowboys, the Packers are expected to make a run at the Super Bowl. Last year the Packers lost the division because the Vikings manhandled the Green Bay offensive line. They lost in the playoffs because the Cardinals shredded their defense. The Packers are an odd bunch in that they have a lot of young talent (Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, linebacker Clay Matthews, wide receiver Greg Jennings, among others), and a lot of old talent (defensive player of the year cornerback Charles Woodson is 34, wide receiver Donald Driver is 35, left tackle Chad Clifton is 34), and there are other key starters on the wrong side of 30. Driver had surgery on both knees during the offseason, so he is already a bit of a question mark, but the Packers are exceedingly deep at wide receiver.

Aaron Rodgers is actually a hair ahead of Steve Young on the all-time quarterback efficiency rankings. That is no mean feat. Rodgers benefits from having an elite receiving corps. If Driver returns to form he’ll be a deep threat. His ability to adapt to a ball in flight is something to see. Greg Jennings isn’t quite as good as he gets credit for being, but is still very good. James Jones and Jordy Nelson are both qualified as third or fourth receivers, and would be able to step up into the #2 slot if necessary. Nelson has a higher upside while Jones is a little better after the catch. Tight end Jermichael Finley is a breakout star. He and Rodgers have an excellent rapport. Finley is a tough cover for most linebackers and safeties.

When the Packers take the ball out of Rodgers’ hands, they generally give it to Ryan Grant. Grant isn’t the star he appeared to be in 2007, but he is an above-average running back. Brandon Jackson provides the versatility that Grant lacks.

Elderly offensive tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton had general manager Ted Thompson by the balls this offseason. The Packers simply didn’t have any good young options at tackle. Both signed new deals this offseason. The interior of the line is fine, but is not a strength. The Packers wisely added strong offensive line depth in the draft when tackle Bryan Bulaga fell to them at 23. Bulaga might be good enough to force his way into the lineup at left guard. Daryn Colledge has the job now due to Bulaga missing preseason reps with a hip flexor.

The Packers have an excellent starting defensive line. 2nd year nose tackle B.J. Raji has lived up to expectations, and might start exceeding them this season. Ryan Pickett is moving from nose to left end. Cullen Jenkins will start at right end. Jenkins was adept at getting into the backfield, so he just needs to improve his closing moves. Johnny Jolly was slated to provide depth at all three spots, but has been suspended indefinitely. The role of Jolly will now be played by 2nd round pick Mike Neal. I felt Neal was a bit of a reach, but he has the right mix of strength and technique to play both nose tackle and defensive end. The depth after those four is questionable.

A.J. Hawk isn’t the star the Packers were hoping for when they drafted him, and it is possible a lack of depth is all that is keeping him in the lineup. Desmond Bishop might steal his field time. Clay Matthews had an amazing rookie season, but is currently out with a hamstring injury. Brandon Chillar and Brad Jones help in the run department. Jones is a potential breakout pass rush threat. Nick Barnett replaces Hawk in nickel formations. Undrafted rookie Frank Zombo has made the most of his opportunity and looks to make the roster. One worry is that the loss of Aaron Kampman will lead to more blocking scrutiny for the rest of the Packers’ pass rush.

Cornerback Charles Woodson is still an elite player but at some point his level of play has to decline due to age. Free safety Nick Collins is also an elite player. Strong safety Atari Bigby is injured, so rookie 3rd round pick Morgan Burnett will be asked to step up. Burnett has tremendous range, but isn’t a good tackler and isn’t a natural fit at strong safety. Tramon Williams is a mediocre nickel cornerback who is going to be asked to start as the #2. Williams is a gambler. Al Harris is hurt and is 36 years old so it is unclear if he’ll ever play again. Elite quarterbacks shredded the Packers’ secondary last season, and that is a concern heading into this year.

The Packers’ special teams were bad in literally every facet of the game last season. Even with some regression to the mean and some new faces, the special teams still look like a weakness this season.

There is a lot to love about the Packers, and a little bit to worry about. Last year the Packers moved up from 28th to 5th against the run. Given the personnel and scheme the Packers are running, I can see the Packers maintaining their strength against the run, but teams will be able to attack the linebackers and cornerbacks not named Woodson. An improved pass rush would help but it is unlikely while Matthews is out. The Packers had an unsustainable turnover differential of +24. Take that away and the team might not be quite as good as everyone thinks.

Minnesota Vikings

Expected Wins- 9.37

Scouting Wins- 10.83

DVOA Wins- 8.6

2009 Record- 12-4

There is a very strong case that the Vikings were the best team in the NFL last season. They dominated the Cowboys and Saints in the playoffs, and only lost to the Saints due to some back luck (or perhaps Favre is simply fated to end every year with an interception). While I love the amount of talent on the roster, it looks like the Vikings missed their chance. Favre simply isn’t healthy right now. Neither he nor I foresee his ankle holding up the entire season. Star wide receiver Sidney Rice is already out for the first half of the season and it is an open question how well he will be able to perform when he comes back.

When healthy, Brett Favre is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. He doesn’t have quite the arm he had when he was younger, but his decision making has improved. Take away the ankle injury and the Vikings are one of the NFC favorites. Unfortunately, if Favre goes down the team will have to turn to Tavaris Jackson. Jackson has already proven his limitations as a quarterback. If the Vikings had faith in Jackson they wouldn’t have pressed Favre so hard to come back.

Running back Adrian Peterson is an elite back. His yards per carry have dropped every year, but he’s become a threat in the passing game. The loss of Chester Taylor to free agency means Peterson’s newfound versatility will come in handy. The major chink in Peterson’s armor is his fumbling problem, something I no longer expect him to fix. I liked 2nd round pick Toby Gerhart, but he needs to prove he has NFL speed. I couldn’t believe how bad he looked in the open field in the preseason.

The receiving corps was supposed to be an area of strength. Unfortunately, Percy Harvin’s migraines have returned, and Sidney Rice is out for the first half of the season. The Vikings traded for Greg Camarillo (good move) and signed Javon Walker (really?). Camarillo is a nice possession receiver. Walker is toast. Bernard Berrian never really formed a bond with Favre, but might have to step into the #1 receiver role. Favre no longer likes throwing the tight sideline throws that are required for the routes Berrian runs. Berrian has the athleticism to be a #1 receiver, but his hands are another question mark. Rice and Harvin are both playmakers when healthy. Harvin seems confident that his doctors have made a breakthrough in treating his condition [ed. Bullshit. Doctors don’t know jack about migraines. Harvin is amazing for playing at a professional level despite the headaches]. Greg Lewis knows the offense and can step in if the depth thins further. Visanthe Shiancoe has had a fantastic two-year run and is one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Jim Kleinsasser can function as a 6th blocker who will catch the occasional pass.

The Vikings don’t seem too concerned about their offensive line, but I feel like they are whistling past the nursing home. Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson are on the downside of their careers, and both slipped noticeably last season. After John Sullivan proved ineffective, the Vikings might move right guard Anthony Herrerra over to center. Right tackle Phil Loadholt is still learning in pass protection, but has proven to be an excellent run blocker. Sullivan might keep his job depending on the next week of practice.

The defensive line is absolutely stacked. Even at age 38, Pat Williams is still an above-average defensive tackle. DT Kevin Williams (no relation) is an elite player. Both are excellent run stuffers, and Kevin produces a pretty good pass rush. The Vikings’ offensive line depth is poor, so they have to hope for good health. Defensive end Jared Allen is one of the best players in the NFL. He is a better pass rusher than run stuffer. DE Ray Edwards has played well against single blocking. The Vikings have solid defensive line depth.

The linebacker corps isn’t quite as good as the defensive line, but it isn’t bad. E.J. Henderson has come back from a hideous femur injury. He was quite good last year and looks to be back to his old form. Chad Greenway has slowly worked his way up and is now quite good against the run and in coverage. Jaspar Brinkly and Ben Leber are both strong vs. the run, weak vs. the pass.

Cornerback Antione Winfield is the star of the secondary. He’s a good player and a great fit in the system. The Vikings have excellent cornerback depth, but no clear cut 2nd option. Cedric Griffin was the #2 last year, but he hurt himself in the NFC Championship game and is still out. Benny Sapp has been a fine nickelback. The Vikings signed Lito Shephard, a formerly great cornerback who has looked a step slow. Finally, the Vikings’ first 2010 draft pick, 2nd-round cornerback Chris Cook, has looked good in the preseason. Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson are a mediocre pair of safeties, and Jamarca Johnson might steal one of their jobs [ed. cue South Park townspeople “THEY TOOK OUR JOBBBBBS!”].

The Vikings enjoyed two major improvements in their special teams last year. The first was Percy Harvin adding explosiveness to the return game. The second was the improvement of the punt coverage team. At this point I wouldn’t risk Harvin back there. The Vikings brought in Kicker Rhys Lloyd to take over kickoffs while Ryan Longwell handles the field goals and extra points.

The biggest issue for the Vikings is clearly the passing game. Injuries are a part of life in the NFL and the Vikings look to be in trouble. Also, I don’t care what anyone says, coach Brad Childress is terrible. The more I look at the Vikings the more I see a highly talented roster that simply missed its chance.

NFC South:

Projected Standings:

New Orleans Saints 11-5

Atlanta Falcons 10-6

Carolina Panthers 8-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12

Atlanta Falcons

Expected Wins- 9.48

Scouting Wins- 8.18

DVOA Wins- 9.6

2008 Record- 9-7

The Falcons have received some tremendous scheduling luck. They get Pittsburgh week one without Roethlisberger, and their two toughest non-divisional matchups (Baltimore, Green Bay) are at home. Apart from their road game at New Orleans, there won’t be a game on the Falcons’ schedule where they are a sizable underdog. Moreover, the Falcons were beset by injuries last season and should catch more of a break this season.

Quarterback Matt Ryan has to be looking forward to a season free of turf toe. He’ll be facing a much easier schedule this season. Ryan has an excellent work ethic. He’s a very good quarterback and I expect him to take a small step towards greatness this season.

Running back Michael Turner looks fresh after missing the end of last season with an ankle injury. I don’t see him repeating his 1,699-yard performance from 2008, partly because the Falcons aren’t going to overuse Turner again. Jason Snelling doesn’t play up to his size. Jerious Norwood has likely lost some of the speed that made him a dangerous 3rd down option. I can’t say I love the Falcons’ running game.

Wide receiver Roddy White had a mediocre season by his standards, mostly due to the fact that defenses simply didn’t have to pay attention to many other players on offense. White is an excellent receiver and should bounce back this season. Harry Douglas and Michael Jenkins are in a battle to see who gets to start opposite White. In either case, future HOF tight end Tony Gonzalez will likely be the second option. His level of play hasn’t declined and if either Douglas or Jenkins steps up and becomes a player who can regularly beat an opponent’s second cornerback in single coverage, the Falcons will be very tough to defend.

Left tackle Sam Baker is a good, young player who showed marked improvement after being benched last season. Opposite him, right tackle Tyson Clabo is a mauler with a mean streak. The interior of the line returns from last year. There is a bit of concern about right guard Harvey Dahl, as he suffered a serious ankle injury last season. Apparently, he is mean enough to have been compared to Conrad Dobler. Despite the ornery nature of the offensive line, the unit is exceedingly disciplined and was one of the least-flagged lines in the NFL last season. The Falcons have experienced backups who can be effective if injuries knock out one or two of the starters. They also added guard Mike Johnson in the 3rd round, but he is only expected to make an impact in the future.

I can’t tell if defensive end John Abraham has lost a step or if he was simply unlucky to have been in the offensive backfield as often as he was but only record six sacks. Jamaal Anderson was supposed to bookend the other side of the line, but he has only managed 2.5 sacks in 3 years combined. It appears he will lose his starting job to Kroy Biermann. DE Lawrence Sidbury has also impressed the Falcons, and might move Anderson further down the depth chart. The Falcons are very excited for the return of defensive tackle Peria Jerry. Jerry might not be 100% after missing most of last season due to a knee injury. DT Jordan Babineaux will miss the first game of the season due to an NFL suspension. Both are highly talented, although only Babineaux has actually shown that talent in the NFL. The Falcons have solid defensive line depth, including rookie tackle Corey Peters. I don’t expect Peters to contribute much this season, but could prove valuable down the line.

I really like the Falcons’ starting linebackers. Curtis Lofton has proven to be an excellent middle linebacker. Mike Peterson brings quality play and veteran leadership to the strong side, and 1st round draft pick Sean Weatherspoon will contribute significant athleticism to the weak side. Weatherspoon is a bit small for the position, but has nice agility. Stephan Nicholas is an experienced backup who can play any of the linebacker positions. No matter who is on the field, this is a fast and athletic unit, but they will need to improve their coverage skills.

The Falcons realized that their secondary needed improvement and have done what they could. They signed cornerback Dunta Robinson to take over the role as #1 CB. Robinson hasn’t regained his pre-injury form from years ago, but he’ll still be an improvement in coverage and a massive improvement in run support over what the Falcons had last season. The Falcons are happy with what they’ve seen out of CB Chris Owens. Owens would probably be at his best in the slot. CB Brian Williams was playing well for the Falcons last season before a knee injury knocked him out. The Falcons hope he can return to form and take the #2 cornerback role. Free safety Thomas DeCoud had a nice year last year and should continue to be effective in his second year as a starter. It looks like Eric Coleman will start at strong safety. He was serviceable in 2009 and might perform better with better cornerback play. The Falcons are hoping 2009 2nd round pick safety William Moore recovers from knee and hamstring injuries that sidelined him last season. The Falcons would rather not find out how much depth they have in their secondary.

The Falcons have a pretty good kick coverage team and unremarkable special teams beyond that. The Falcons hope they’ll have a little more field goal luck this season.

I don’t think the Falcons are quite at the level of the Saints. They are well positioned to be a strong team for many years, but right now I just don’t see their offense as explosive enough to keep up. They are a franchise on the upswing and I expect to see Matt Ryan in an NFC Championship game in the next few years.

Carolina Panthers

Expected Wins- 6.68

Scouting Wins- 7.10

DVOA Wins- 7.2

2009 Record- 8-8

The Panthers are in rebuilding mode. They have jettisoned the face of their offense (Jake Delhomme), and their best player on defense (Julius Peppers). They drafted their quarterback of the future (Jimmy Clausen, who surprisingly fell to them in the second round), and then drafted another quarterback in the 6th round (Tony Pike) to make sure Clausen doesn’t become too comfortable. Clausen is known for being exceedingly self confident. Clausen is recovering from surgery to his big toe. That probably was one of the causes of his draft day fall, as well as his attitude, but the biggest problem is that a lot of NFL teams felt he was more NFL ready than talented. Cocky, dinged up, and not very good is no way to go through life son.

What boggles me is why the Panthers don’t have faith in quarterback Matt Moore. He was third on the Panthers depth chart for most of his career, but played very well in seven games last season. He wasn’t pushed particularly hard, as the Panthers were a run-first offense, and will likely be again this season. A concern is that defenses will adapt to Moore now that they have had time to study him and that he will show why the Panthers didn’t consider starting him until they were out of other options. Moore has learned from Delhomme’s professionalism (think Manning, Peyton) and has done a good job of winning teammates over with his work ethic and demeanor. If the Panthers weren’t facing the Giants in Week 1, I’d be rooting for them to get off to a great start. I’d like to see Moore succeed if only because it would be a triumph of production (Moore has won 6 of 8 starts so far) over pedigree. Kurt Warner and Tom Brady needed a little bit of luck to get a chance to start, and they are both on the way to Canton. Dream big Mr. Moore, dream big.

The Panthers possess as good a pair of running backs as any in the league. Jonathan Stewart is only 5-10, but he packs 235 pounds into his frame and is one tough dude to tackle He does have a bit of an injury problem, partly due to his rushing style. He managed to average 5.1 yards a carry with over 200 carries. DeAngelo Williams has a career rushing average of 5.1 yards per carry through 751 carries. Among current players, only Chris Johnson has him beat. Williams is exceedingly fast and can take the ball inside or outside. It impresses me that both backs were able to rush for over 1100 yards and average over 5 yards a carry despite the fact that defenses pretty much knew the run was coming. That speaks not only to the quality of the Panthers backfield, but also to their offensive line. The Panthers also have good depth behind Stewart and Williams, which does come in handy as neither is a particularly good blocker or receiver.

Last year’sPanthers’ offensive line managed to maintain a very high level of play despite injuries that would have derailed (perhaps even decimated) most teams. Left tackle Jordan Gross is coming back from a broken leg. When healthy he is a strong run blocker and fair pass blocker. Right tackle Jeff Otah is one of the best run blockers in the NFL, but like his counterpart he is only a fair pass blocker. Center Ryan Kalil is the best player on a strong line. Left guard Travelle Wharton was a solid replacement for Gross when he was injured. Wharton is the kind of blocker that Vince Lombardi loved. He can hold the point or get out in space and take out the lead defender. The right guard position isn’t settled, but unlike most teams the Panthers have multiple good options. I’d like to see Duke Robinson get the job due to his sheer size and run blocking ability, but the Panthers are already loaded with great run blockers and Robinson still needs more work on his pass protection. No matter who wins the job the Panthers are in fine shape.

I’m worried about the Panthers’ receiving corps. Steve Smith missed training camp with a flag football injury and has not played in the preseason. That is not good news. Dwayne Jarrett’s production has never come close to matching his physical skills. 3rd round picks Brandon LaFell and Armanti Edwards add to their wide receiver depth. Edwards is a tremendous athlete. He is the only two-time winner of the Walter Payton award, and even if you don’t know exactly what that means, it HAS to be something good with that name. It is the award for best FCS (formerly Division I-AA) player. Edwards isn’t really a natural fit at wide receiver, but with his athletic skills he might be able to make the jump. He also might work as a natural wildcat quarterback to give the offense some versatility and a change of pace. LaFell is big and athletic, but the knock against him was his hands and propensity for dropping balls he obviously should have caught. So far the Panthers have been happy with his progress and his downfield blocking skills. LaFell might jump ahead of Jarrett on the depth chart. The Panthers’ tight ends are a pretty mediocre group who are mostly asked to provide additional blocking. If there wasn’t such a gaping need at wide receiver I’d probably chastise the Panthers for not grabbing a tight end in the draft.

The defensive front seven could almost be described as Jon Beason and the new guys. Beason will move from inside to weak side linebacker. He’s an excellent player. On paper the defensive line looks pretty thin, but it has looked good in the preseason. The team is hoping defensive end Everette Brown can step and replace help replace part of the pass rush lost with the departure of Julius Peppers. Charles Johnson and rookie Greg Hardy have both played well at defensive end this preseason. Defensive tackle Nick Hayden has also looked good. Dan Conner and James Anderson will start along with Beason. If Thomas Davis can return from injury (he is currently on the physically unable to perform list, generally referred to as the PUP list), the linebacker corps will be very good. Even without Davis the unit isn’t bad, but depth is a concern.

Cornerbacks Chris Gamble, Richard Marshall, and Captain Munnerlyn form a pretty nice trio. Gamble is the leader of the group and can match up well against most #1 receivers. Teams will probably feel comfortable attacking whomever wins the job as the dime cornerback. Safeties Sherrod Martin and Charles Godfrey have good speed and coverage skills. Munnerlyn has put up some excellent numbers and might move up to #2 on the depth chart. Marshall might then rank as the top nickel cornerback in the NFL. There really isn’t much depth in the secondary due to the Panthers dramatic salary purge, but the front five are very good. We’ll see if they can handle their jobs as well despite a potentially weaker pass rush.

The Panthers realized that their special teams were a problem and have taken at least somewhat of an effort to improve there. Some of the better players on the coverage units will be gone due to their increased importance in other areas. The team made an effort to add solid special teams players to the roster and shouldn’t suffer too badly this season. Unfortunately, kicker John Kasay isn’t anywhere near as good as he was and punter Jason Baker isn’t among the best at his craft either.

The Panthers aren’t among either the best or the worst teams in the NFL. They have a lot more talent on their roster than the bottom feeders and could be on the rise soon if any of their quarterback options work out. I’m a big fan of coach John Fox but there are concerns he’s been there too long and isn’t the right man to rebuild the team. We’ll see how he and they perform this season. If I had a little more confidence in the Panthers receiver options I’d love them as a dark horse. As is, I see them achieving mediocrity

New Orleans Saints

Expected Wins- 10.44

Scouting Wins- 11.46

DVOA Wins- 8.5

2009 Record- 13-3

Football Outsiders is highly skeptical of the Saints defense, and with good reason. The Saints had a turnover differential of +11. Much of that came from the Saints’ defense attacking one-dimensional offenses trying to catch up. Teams can and will run on the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams has the defense programmed to attack. That means big plays for both teams. Football Outsiders sees the defensive success as unsustainable, while the offense will experience a bit of regression to the mean. I’m not so sure.

Quarterback Drew Brees completed an NFL record 70.6% of his passes last season. The Saints’ offense was versatile, unpredictable, and devastating. Much of that was due to Brees’ ability to complete any pass. Defenses were forced to focus on stopping the Saints’ passing game. Brees is still in his prime and playing as well as anyone in the NFL. It is astonishing to think that he was a free agent after losing a quarterback battle in San Diego, although the Chargers were one of the few teams who could legitimately claim to have as good a passing attack as the Saints managed last season. Brees will need to maintain his excellent level of play for the Saints to repeat.

Reggie Bush might not have lived up to expectations, but he did average 5.6 yards a carry last season. He also is surprisingly effective in the red zone, partially due to the fact he can take an easy to complete dump off pass and break a tackle in the open field. Pierre Thomas is the feature back, although the Saints do a good job of spreading the touches around. He’s a tough runner who benefits from the Saints system. The Saints actually did an excellent job of mixing run and pass plays on 1st down despite the temptation to simply have Brees attack the defense. Coach Sean Payton is the rare offensive genius who feels no need to impress and will take whatever the defense gives him.

The Saints wide receiver corps is as deep any in the NFL. Marques Colston is the leader and the star, He can run any route and has the size and strength to dominate in the red zone. Robert Meachem is on a path to surpass Donald Driver as the best deep receiver in the NFL. His catch rate on deep balls was astounding, and only some of the credit for that belongs to Drew Brees. Devery Henderson has refined his route-running skills and is now a dangerous possession receiver who can also beat you deep. As #4 receivers go, Lance Moore is excellent. He hasn’t shown the talent or skills that the three players above him have shown, but he hasn’t disappointed in limited usage either. Tight end Jeremy Shockey has benefited from the limited amount of attention defenses can show to him. He’s still too good to be covered by most linebackers and will punish opponents a few times a game.

The Saints returned all five starters from an excellent offense line that sent the center through the right tackle to the Pro Bowl. Right tackle Jon Stinchcomb, right guard Jahri Evans, and center Jonathan Goodwin are all elite, particularly Evans. Right guard Carl Nicks isn’t quite as good as his compatriots, but he’s not a problem either. Left tackle Jerrod Bushrod came in as an injury replacement after Jammal Brown was injured in the preseason. Brown struggled at times, but his level of play rose in the playoffs. The Saints decided that to add some depth just in case and took OT Charles Brown in the second round. Brown is very talented but he probably needs some time before he can break into the starting lineup.

Defensive end Will Smith had a fantastic 2009 season. He benefited from the aggressive game plan and the fact that he could usually ignore run stopping responsibilities. Apart from Smith the only player opposing teams feel might feel compelled to gameplan against is defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. Ellis has been nagged by injuries and hasn’t shown the talent that led to him being the 7th pick in the draft two years ago, but the Saints have been happy with how he has looked in practice and he may finally be ready to unleash his potential. The Saints plan to platoon DT Remi Ayodele and DT Anthony Hargrove. Ayodele will play most of the time, while Hargrove will come in for obvious passing situations. The Saints picked up defensive ends Alex Brown and Jimmy Wilkerson in free agency. They will play opposite from Smith. Both played well last season and should help the Saints maintain a fierce pass rush. DT Al Woods was a nice value in the 4th round. The scheme made this line look better than it was last season, but it looks pretty solid on paper.

Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is the leader of the defense. He’s an excellent blitzer and flies to the ball. Unfortunately for the Saints, he is currently sidelined with an injury to his right groin. He doesn’t need surgery and could return for the Vikings game to open the season. After Vilma, the Saints simply do not have any elite linebackers. Scott Shanle and Jonathan Casillas look to have grabbed the starting spots. Casillas has tremendous athleticism and might become an impact player with a bit more seasoning. Shanle is pretty good in pass coverage, but not as good as he used to be. The Saints signed LB Clint Ingrim in free agency, but he is currently injured and might not make it onto the field. After the starters there is very little experienced depth.

Free safety Darren Sharper was absolutely fantastic as the centerfielder reacting to quarterbacks dealing with the blitz. He is currently injured and the Saints aren’t sure when he’ll be available. Cornerback Jabari Greer has become one of the best in the NFL, just a shade below Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha. He has had some injury problems in the past, but appears healthy right now. CB Tracy Porter is on the rise. He has already become a Saints legend with game changing playoff interceptions against Brett Favre and Peyton Manning, and is only 24 years old. Randall Gay is a serviceable nickel back and occasional blitzer. 1st round pick Patrick Robinson is exceptionally fast and could make an immediate impact both as a dime cornerback and on special teams. All four cornerbacks are adept at playing man coverage. CB Malcolm Jenkins might make a move over to free safety. He has the speed to play the position, but will need to adapt to a different set of responsibilities. Strong safety Roman Harper functions best as an attacker in the box. When healthy the Saints secondary is one of the best in the NFL. Even with Sharper hurt it still looks to be a strength.

Reggie Bush is a boom/bust punt returner. We might see rookie Patrick Robinson returning kicks. If not, Courtney Roby is fine at the job. Punter Thomas Morestead is a solid punter and good on kickoffs. Garrett Hartley handles the rest of the kicking duties. He had a great postseason. The major weakness on the saints is their coverage units. Since special teams units have high variance they might simply bounce back.

The Saints are the team to beat in the NFC. They have weaknesses. You can run on them. If you handle the blitz you can make some big plays. The hard part is playing defense and shutting them down. The Saints are well coached, flexible on offense, aggressive on defense, and well equipped to repeat. Of course, if Bill Parcels has taught me anything, it’s that last season is last season and you are what your record says you are. The Saints are 0-0 and have as much work to do as anybody.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Expected Wins- 5.79

Scouting Wins- 5.16

DVOA Wins- 8.0

2009 Record- 3-13

The KUBIAK projection system loves Josh Freeman. I’m not sure why. Football Outsiders isn’t sure why. Josh Freeman isn’t sure why. Freeman had a massive interception problem last season, although they were generally caused by him being forced to throw due to game circumstances. Perhaps historically young quarterbacks who continue to throw into danger (when required) area good bet to grow up to be Brett Favre. If Favre and Tony Romo can do it, why not Freeman? I’m glad I asked. Freeman’s biggest problem is an awful receiving corps.

Wide receiver Michael Clayton has never lived up to his [identify] draft position. The Eagles gave up on Reggie Brown and traded him to Tampa Bay for a 6th round pick. Sammie Stroughter, Maurice Stovall, and Mark Bradley would all struggle to make most NFL rosters, although Stovall might grab a spot due to his special teams contributions. Such a gaping lack of talent would be obvious to any general manager. The Bucs took action in the draft, grabbing Arrelious Benn in the 2nd round and Mike Williams in the 4th. Benn has a fantastic combination of size and speed, but his production in college never matched his potential. Williams has major character issues. Syracuse pretty much kicked him off the team twice despite not having anyone near him talent wise. If the Bucs can keep his head on straight they’ll have nabbed one of the steals in the draft. The Bucs’ best receiving threat is tight end Kellen Winslow. He has the size and strength to work short and the speed to get open deep. He might be the only Buc considered to be at the pinnacle of his position, although his propensity for injuries lowers his value a bit.

Running back Cadillac Williams finally managed to stay healthy for 16 games. His production wasn’t all that impressive, but you have to consider both the quality of offensive line he ran behind and the lack of a passing game to threaten defenses. Backup Derrick Ward is a good second option. Their level of production will depend more on the quarterback and offensive line play than on their own merit. Fullback Earnest Graham and speedster Kareem Huggins will also see situational use.

The Bucs consider their offensive line to be the strength of their offense, and looking at the rest of the offense I’m inclined to agree. It was a down year for the line last year, particularly in run blocking. Center Jeff Faine and right guard Davin Joseph are both quality players. Left guard Jeremy Zuttah is good in pass protection, but ineffectual as a run blocker. He might lose his job to Keydrick Vincent. Left tackle Donald Penn was much better than expected and could become an elite player with more experience. He was a pickup off of the Vikings’ practice squad. Right tackle is a question mark. Jeremy Trueblood currently holds the job, but the Bucs would love to see someone step up and put Trueblood on the bench. For now, no one has shown the skills necessary to do so.

The Bucs aren’t huge fans of defensive end Stylez G. White, but the numbers say he belongs as a starter. DE Kyle Moore will start across from White. Moore has to mature and maintain a consistent effort. The real strength of the Bucs’ defensive line is the new tandem of defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. They’ll join holdovers Ryan Sims and last year’s 2nd-round pick Roy Miller. It isn’t always easy for rookies to make an immediate impact, but this group should be strong for years to come.

Linebackers Barrett Ruud, Gerald Hayes, and Quincy Black form the core of the best unit on the Bucs. Ruud in particular was a monster last year, and the entire unit should be stronger this year because they are much more familiar with the defensive system. The Bucs have surprisingly good depth as well. Upon further consideration, if the Bucs had better defensive ends, their front seven would be pretty scary.

Cornerback Aqib Talib and free safety Tanard Jackson are both quality players. Unfortunately, two players do not a secondary make. The decline of Ronde Barber has left them without a second good option at cornerback. Truth be told they don’t even have depth in place of quality here. They hope Myron Lewis or Elbert Mack develops into a #2 CB, which would allow Barber to move into the slot. Strong safety Sabby Piscitelli was a disaster last year. They signed Sean Jones to replace him. We’ll see how well that works out.

Special teams were a strength last season and could even be improved this year due to the addition of rookie punter Brent Bowden. Bowden has to work on his hangtime, but they have good coverage units so they shouldn’t suffer too much while Bowden develops. The one real weakness was the kicking game. Conner Barth has the leg to remedy that issue; he just needs to improve his accuracy. Clifton Smith is a major threat on returns, but has had concussion issues.

I’ll admit, 8 wins out of the Bucs would shock me. I simply don’t have that kind of faith in Josh Freeman and the rest of the offense. They do have a fairly easy schedule and they are a step up from the dregs, so perhaps they will double their win total from last season.

NFC West:

Projected Standings:

San Francisco 49ers 10-6

Arizona Cardinals 7-9

Seattle Seahawks 6-10

St. Louis Rams 4-12

Arizona Cardinals

Expected Wins- 7.6

Scouting Wins- 8.94

DVOA Wins- 9.4

2009 Record- 10-6

It looks like the Cardinals have given up on Matt Leinart. The rumors are that they are looking to trade him as soon as possible. I am not sure they have a lot of faith in Derek Anderson, but they’d rather lose with the Devil they don’t know. * Apparently they are cutting Leinart. Goodbye Matt.

Anderson managed to throw for almost 3800 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2007 with the Browns. Since then he has only managed to throw for a little over 2500 yards and 12 touchdowns in 18 games. He has a big arm but accuracy has never been his strong suit, even during his best year (56.5% completion rate, 19 interceptions). Leinart’s immaturity has been a problem and he simply doesn’t have many friends in the locker room. If he had lived up to his potential years ago we might never have seen Kurt Warner’s final resurgence. Rookie quarterbacks John Skelton and Max Hall have vastly exceeded anyone’s expectations so far, and the Cardinals are loathe to cut either. If the Cardinals do keep and start Leinart, look for opposing teams to sit on short routes and force him to beat them deep.

Running back Beanie Wells was very impressive late last season. Wells was a bruising runner inside the red zone and has worked on his speed in the offseason. Tim Hightower had a decent season considering the defensive attention he faced. He is a good backup and change of pace when Wells needs a rest. One problem for the Cardinals is that they no longer have any good fullback options, as Dan Kreider is no longer on the roster and Nehemiah Broughton hurt his ACL.

Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is on the short list for top wide receiver in the NFL, along with Andre Johnson. Fitzgerald is the total package of speed, size, technique, and hands. He is a bit dinged up right now with a knee injury. Steve Breaston is a quick #2 option. He showed how effective he can be with a 7-catch, 125-yard effort against the Packers in the playoffs. He’ll miss Kurt Warner. Early Doucet is still a bit raw, but he looks to be a potential Anquan Boldin 2.0. He has toughness but lacks great speed. They grabbed Andre Roberts in the 3rd round, but it’s been undrafted free agent Stephan Williams who has impressed in the preseason. He appears to have grabbed the 4th WR job. The tight end by committee system has worked well. Anthony Becht blocks, Ben Patrick catches passes, Stephan Spach gets hurt. Each knows his role and performs it admirably.

On paper, the offensive line looks like a disaster waiting to happen. Center Lyle Sendlein is the only player returning to his position. He’s a good player but not a difference maker. Levi Brown is a poor pass blocker and now has to take over at left tackle. Brandon Keith has been groomed to take over at right tackle. He has serious size and power, but might still be a bit raw. Left guard Alan Faneca looked awful with the Jets last season. The starting right guard job is still up for grabs, although Reggie Wells appears to have the edge. The Cardinals have decent depth along the offensive line, but right now I’m more worried about the quality of the starting five.

Defensive ends Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell are quite good. Dockett in particular is a monster and will face the brunt of the blocking attention. The real problem along the defensive line was a breakdown at nose tackle. They were ecstatic when Dan Williams fell to them late in the 1st round. The rest of the defensive line (Gabe Watson, Alan Branch) is a mix of has-beens (Bryan Robinson) and never-weres. Branch and Watson seem to realize that this is their last chance to show how good they can be and have worked out hard this offseason.

Losing linebacker Karlos Dansby hurts. He was their best linebacker and leader from the middle of the defense. They picked up Daryl Washington in the second round of the draft. He has great speed and can play inside or outside, but it will be a while before he is as polished as Dansby. Ex-Steelers Joey Porter and Clark Haggans are on the downside of their careers. Gerald Hayes is slated to take over for Dansby on the inside, but he currently is slowed by a herniated disk. Paris Lenon will hold down the other inside slot while Washington develops. There is decent linebacker depth but they will need a strong performance from the defensive line.

Strong safety Adrian Wilson has established himself as a star in the NFL. There were concerns about his battery mate, but Kerry Rhodes has looked excellent in practice and in the preseason. They seem to have a natural chemistry. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is outstanding in coverage and can make big plays but needs to work on his physicality. He can be a bit of a weak tackler and isn’t good at fighting downfield blocking. Greg Toler appears to have won the job across from DRC. An injury at cornerback would really hurt as there isn’t much depth.

Improved coverage units led to a resurgence in their special teams. Punter Ben Graham had a strong season.

Kicker Jay Feely replaces Neil Rackers, but apart from that there aren’t any big changes.

The loss of Kurt Warner is the big news in the desert. There are no great quarterbacks or great teams in the NFC West, making it the weakest division in football. The 2010 schedule lets the NFC West face the second weakest division in football, the AFC West, so the Cardinals might end up with a decent record despite being a lousy team. I expect the Cardinals’ playoff streak to come to an end. Quite simply: There is no quarterback on the roster I trust to lead this team.

San Francisco 49ers

Expected Wins- 9.2

Scouting Wins- 9.48

DVOA Wins- 6.2

2009 Record- 8-8

I can’t fault DVOA here, as the 2009 49ers had a lousy offense and great defense last season. Defensive success is much harder to repeat than offensive success. In fact, offensive failure is pretty easy to repeat. They have addressed their main problems by upgrading their offensive line and keeping the same offensive scheme from last year. That last bit is key as this is the first time quarterback Alex Smith gets to return to the same offense instead of learning a new one.

Alex Smith has acquired a few more detractors each season. Last year he managed to throw for 18 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions, but anyone who watched those games know that Smith didn’t play particularly well. Smith is clearly best out of shotgun formations but those don’t fit the kind of offense that coach Mike Singletary (Samurai!) is trying to install. Singletary wants them to be defined by their physicality and aggressiveness on both sides of the ball. There is a tension here and we’ll see which way they go.

Aggressiveness starts with the offensive line. They drafted a pair of offensive lineman in the 1st round. Rookie Anthony Davis will start immediately at right tackle while fellow rookie Mike Iupati will start at left guard. Center Eric Heitmann broke his leg in practice and will miss the 1st month of the season. David Baas will take his place. Let tackle Joe Staley is their best offensive lineman and his injury last season hurt the offense. Right guard Chilo Rachel will have to help Davis adjust to the NFL. This is a massive and physical offensive line. It’s a line built for power running. It is not a line built for shotgun formations.

Running back Frank Gore isn’t built for shotgun formations either. Gore is an excellent pass protector, but that isn’t where his value comes from. Gore is an elite runner and effective receiver. Backup Glen Coffee found he had a higher calling. To replace Coffee they signed Brian Westbrook. I suspect Westbrook will have difficulty running with the giant fork stuck in his back, but I wouldn’t mind being wrong about that. Anthony Dixon and Michael Robinson are other options who could see a look if Gore is injured again (he’s had ankle injuries each of the past three years) of if Westbrook proves to be ineffective. Dixon needs to work on being more aggressive at the line of scrimmage. Fullback Moran Norris is one of Singletary’s favorites, although not for carrying the ball as much as being a punishing lead blocker.

It isn’t often that I’ll start a review of a team’s receiving corps with a tight end, but I’ll make an exception in this case. Vernon Davis is the truth. I give Singletary a lot of credit for turning Davis’ career around. Davis has reached his potential and is now on of the best tight ends in the NFL. Davis has recently clashed with Michael Crabtree over Crabtree’s attitude. It will be a test of Singletary’s leadership skills to see if he can instill the same kind of work ethic in Crabtree that he has in Davis. Despite only playing 11 games last year, Crabtree led the 49ers in receiving. Crabtree was good but the rest of the 49ers receiving corps are pretty bad. Ted Ginn has shown both his great speed and his stunningly awful hands. Josh Morgan would be a reasonable option as a 4th receiver. Unfortunately he’s #2 on the depth chart. I think I understand why Singletary wants to focus on a power running game instead of throwing to most of these guys.

I love defensive tackle Aubrayo Franklin. He’s the monster that sparks the defense. Almost as important is defensive tackle/end Justin Smith. Both manage to make plays while drawing most of the attention from the offensive line. Defensive Isaac Soporaga is considered one of the strongest players in the NFL. Ricky Jean Francois played quite well win the preseason while Franklin was out with a contract dispute. There is some decent depth behind them, but those are the players the 49ers are counting on at the point of attack.

Linebacker Patrick Willis sets the gold standard for middle linebackers. He’s the star of the defense, and one of the best players in the NFL. Outside linebackers Manny Lawson and Parys Haralsan aren’t particularly feared pass rushers. They did a decent job of getting into the backfield, but rarely in enough time to drop the quarterback. Takeo Spikes has lost a step and now gets by with his intelligence and technique. Injuries have taken away the depth here. Ahmad Brooks has a lacerated kidney. He’s the one impact linebacker that doesn’t start and I’m not sure when he’ll be back.

Cornerback Shawntae Spencer has become the 49ers’ #1 cornerback. That job was supposed to belong to Nate Clements, but injury and poor play have left him with a tenuous hold on the #2 job. Free safety Dashon Goldson rapidly improved and became a playmaker. He still has room for improvement, particularly with his open-field tackling. Strong safety Michael Lewis might just be holding the position warm until 2nd round pick Taylor Mays is ready to take over. Lewis is a fierce hitter but is weak in coverage. Cornerback Reggie Smith will probably take some plays at strong safety in nickel or dime situations.

Ted Ginn’s awful hands don’t stop him from being a good punt returner, something the 49ers needed. Punter Andy Lee is the NFC’s best. Kicker Joe Nedney has lost some leg strength but is still a net plus. The 49ers have good coverage units, so adding Ginn should give the 49ers above-average special teams production.

In any other division, the 49ers would be chasing 2nd place or worse. In the NFC West, however, their strong defense makes them the clear favorites. They aren’t a threat to make it to the Super Bowl yet, but they are definitely on the upswing and could return to glory in a few years.

Seattle Seahawks

Expected Wins- 6.68

Scouting Wins- 5.99

DVOA Wins- 7.3

2009 Record- 5-11

Rebuilding, thy name is the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll fled USC one step ahead of the law. In his short time in Seattle he has turned over the roster, making well over 100 roster moves. As a general rule, there aren’t too many highly talented football players waiting around for jobs, and the current roster is a big light on talent. It’s too early to know for sure but they had what appears to be a fantastic draft, grabbing 3 potentially elite playmakers in the first two rounds, all at positions of extreme need.

One of the positions of need that wasn’t addressed in last year’s draft is quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck has seen his best days come and go. Now he needs to adjust to a new offense that doesn’t seem to fit his skill set. It might not be long before Charlie Whitehurst takes over. He apparently has looked good in practice, but the truth is he is a known unknown.

The running game has some huge question marks. Julious Jones has been ineffective for the last two seasons. He was protected while GM Tim Ruskell was in charge, but with the new regime in town, he’s in trouble. Justin Forsett will likely benefit from the change. Forsett shredded Carroll’s USC defenses. Think of a poor man’s Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew. Leon Washington is similar in stature to Forsett. We could see a 1-2 mighty mite punch if Washington returns to form after breaking his leg last season.

Their wide receiver depth is almost universally derided, but I see serious breakout potential here. A bad attitude combined with a lack of production knocked Mike Williams out of Detroit. He’s been reunited with his old college coach and appears determined to prove himself. Deion Branch has failed to impress since coming over from New England. Enter Golden Tate. Tate was a wunderkind at Notre Dame. It seems to have reached the point where Golden Domers are underrated coming out of college. I had Tate as the second-best receiver in the draft, behind only Dez Bryant. We’ll see how quickly he can adjust to the pro game. Tight end John Carlson is poised for a breakout season. Stunningly, T.J. Housmandzadeh did not make the 53 man roster after being their most effective receiver last season.

Rookie left tackle Russell Okung is hurt and might not make it back for the start of the season. Their line was destroyed by injuries last season and things look almost worse this year. Legendary coach Alex Gibbs has a very tough job to do. I really don’t have a lot of good things to say about this offensive line, so I’ll move on.

No pass rush in the NFL looks as bad as this one. There have some decent run stuffers in tackles Brandon Mebane, Chris Cole, and Kevin Vickerson, but none of the defensive ends provides anything resembling a threatening pass rush. Lawrence Jackson is the best of the incumbents, but there simply hasn’t been much production here and things don’t appear to have improved.

There is better news in the linebacker corps. Lofa Tatupu, Aaron Curry, and David Hawthorne form the most talented unit on the team. The team needs Tatupu to stay healthy, as he is the leader of the defense. Curry is going to get more chances to attack the passer as an edge rusher in the 3-4. Hawthorne had a good season in the middle after replacing the injured Tatupu, but he doesn’t have Tatupu’s experience or coverage skills. In addition to being the most talented unit on the team, it is also the deepest.

I’m amused that the Ravens turned to Seattle to help solve their cornerback problem (CB Josh Wilson for the Ravens 2011 5th round pick). It’s not quite like asking a panhandler for a loan, but it’s pretty telling. Marcus Trufant got destroyed last season, possibly due to a nagging injury. He’ll need to be 100% to give them a fighting chance. Across from Trufant Kelly Jennings is going to get a(nother) chance to prove himself. Given the lack of depth among the cornerbacks, I’d say an injury could prove disastrous, but I’m no fan of the starters. That doesn’t hold true for the safeties. Strong safety Jordan Babineaux is good in almost any role the defense asks of him. He’ll be joined by 1st round pick Earl Thomas. Thomas has a great mix of speed and smarts. That combination translates into great “game speed” and while he’ll have to adjust to the speed of the NFL, he should be a perfect fit at strong safety.

Kicker Olindo Mare continues to provide value. He’s still one of the better kickers in the NFL. Punter Jon Ryan had a strong season as well. Unfortunately they didn’t have good coverage units, but they have taken efforts to improve them. They also have a slew of good options for returning kicks and punts.

The Seahawks were decimated by a poor general manager (Tim Ruskell) and it will take Pete Carroll some time to rebuild them. I like how he’s started. A lot comes down to how good Charlie Whitehurst is. The modern NFL is defined by the passing game. If Whitehurst turns out to be good, the Seahawks will be back competing for division titles soon. If not, they’ll have one more hole to fill via the draft.

St. Louis Rams

Expected Wins- 4.17

Scouting Wins- 4.77

DVOA Wins- 6.3

2009 Record- 1-15

Last year the Rams were the “surprise” DVOA favorite, a role currently jointly held by Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Part of it was repeated bad luck as injuries decimated the team two years in a row. Part of it was an unprecedented two years of ineptitude in the red zone. Part of it was being net -13 in the turnover battle. Part of it was simply a lack of recognition of just how bereft of talent they were.

6.3 wins is still optimistic relative to the talent, but at least there is hope. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford has looked stunningly good in the preseason. We all know that preseason results are meaningless, but Bradford has shown the accuracy and arm strength that led him to being the 1st overall pick in the draft. It looks like he’ll be starting from day 1. It’s a pity he has no one to throw to.

I’m not kidding. The Rams had the worst receiving corps in the NFL before they lost #1 receiver Donnie Avery to injury. 4th round draft pick Mardy Gilyard has been dinged up as well, but he should return. Gilyard wasn’t the most talented receiver in the draft, but he was one of the most productive. I think the Rams will be happy to have him.. Right now their starting wide receivers, Bradon Gibson and Laurent Robinson, combined to catch 47 passes last season. Tight end Billy Bajema’s best work has come as a fullback. At least running back Steven Jackson can take some of the heat off Bulger. Jackson isn’t a great receiver, but he is a punishing runner and is still one of the best backs in the NFL. Jackson might catch a break if the offensive line returns to full health.

Rookie left tackle Rodger Saffold has been so good in camp that he’ll start at left tackle from day 1. If he can do the job, previous 1st round pick Jason Smith can move over to right tackle. They’re young, but if we go by pedigree this could be one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL very soon. The interior is a bit of an issue, although last year both center Jason Brown and left guard Jacob Bell were slowed by injuries. If healthy,, they could be a nice tandem. Right guard Adam Goldberg was serviceable at right tackle when Smith was hurt last season, and is an above average guard. There is a lot of variance in how well this line could perform, and they don’t have much experience as a unit, but on paper it looks like it could be very good, especially if Saffold is starting at right tackle because of how good he looks and not due to any slippage from Smith.

The Rams have invested a lot of draft value on the defensive line, with little to show for it. Chris Long has to show signs of improvement or he’ll start getting labeled a bust. Either James Hall or Victor Adeyanju will start across from him. They are decent defensive ends, nothing more. There is more mediocrity along the line, as free agent Fred Robbins takes over as the starting nose tackle. He’ll be backed up by Clifton Ryan, although Darell Scott has the most talent of any defensive tackle on the team. Scott is only 24 and will need some time to develop. I rarely talk about 7th round picks, but I’m rooting for George Selvie. He’s battled injuries, but he’ll see time as a situational pass rusher. He was the star that allowed Jason Pierre-Paul to shine.

Amazingly the Rams will start three Buckeyes at linebacker, with a 4th on the bench. The best of them is middle linebacker Jame Laurinaitis, one of the most surehanded tacklers in the NFL. Na’il Diggs and Larry Grant start outside. They bring size and physicality to the defense, but lack great speed. 4th Buckeye Bobby Carpenter or Chris Chamberlain will play depending on whether it is a rushing or passing situation, respectively.

Strong safety O.J. Atogwe is coming off an injury, but when healthy he is the Rams’ best defender, just ahead of Laurinaitis. He’ll be joined by strong safety Chris Dahl. Cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Ronald Bartell each have their question marks. For Bartell it is health. He’s a quality player when healthy, which he wasn’t last season. For Fletcher it is health and experience. The Rams knew this was an area of need, but 3rd-round pick Jerome Murphy suffered an ankle injury. When he returns he might play in nickel formations.

Thankfully the Rams had a great punting unit as punter Donnie Jones and the coverage units were among the best in the NFL. The special teams go downhill from there, as kicker Josh Brown had a lousy 2009. Danny Amendola returns both punts (well) and kicks (poorly), and given the Rams’ struggles at wide receiver, might even catch a few passes from Bradford. Not bad for an undrafted player.

It certainly appears that the Rams have found a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford. If that’s the case it is only a matter of time before the Rams return to mediocrity, and then perhaps even to glory. They’ll need some better wide receivers and some more help on the defensive line, but I see a team on the way up. For the worst team in the NFL last season, 4-12 is a long way up.

Final NFC standings:

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 11-5

New York Giants 10-6

Philadelphia Eagles 9-7

Washington Redskins 5-11

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 12-4

Minnesota Vikings 10-6

Chicago Bears 6-10

Detroit Lions 4-12

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 11-5

Atlanta Falcons 10-6

Carolina Panthers 8-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 10-6

Arizona Cardinals 7-9

Seattle Seahawks 6-10

St. Louis Rams 4-12

NFC Wildcard round:

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

New York Giants come into San Francisco and shut down the 49ers. Giants 20, Falcons13.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

New Orleans demolishes the overrated Falcons. Saints 31, Falcons 17.

NFC Divisional Playoffs:

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers keeps a pace that Eli Manning can’t match. Packers 35, Giants 24.

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

The drive to repeat ends in Dallas. Cowboys 27, Saints 24.

NFC Championship Game:

A classic matchup. Dallas gets revenge for the Ice Bowl and gets homefield advantage for the Super Bowl. Cowboys 31, Packers 24.

That’s right, the Cowboys are my pick to represent the NFC. Who challenges them from the AFC?

lol

Originally posted by Ribbo
5% ROI and overcoming a 20% vig from the sports books. You have to put a lot of work into sportsbetting to show a profit.

I know that UniTAB (who I work for) puts an 18% "rake" on the wagering pools... which is Horses, Trotting and Greyhounds... Not sure how the sports bookmakers run theirs.

EDIT: I'm curious to know how you get enough knowledge on such a wide variety of sports to beat the bookmakers on each one... AFAIK we have one bookmaker dedicated to setting the odds on one or occasionally two sports.. surely they have more time to work out the odds?

Originally posted by gedwashere91

Originally posted by Ribbo
5% ROI and overcoming a 20% vig from the sports books. You have to put a lot of work into sportsbetting to show a profit.

I know that UniTAB (who I work for) puts an 18% "rake" on the wagering pools... which is Horses, Trotting and Greyhounds... Not sure how the sports bookmakers run theirs.

EDIT: I'm curious to know how you get enough knowledge on such a wide variety of sports to beat the bookmakers on each one... AFAIK we have one bookmaker dedicated to setting the odds on one or occasionally two sports.. surely they have more time to work out the odds?

In America they love statistics, every single thing is analysed to death. It's all about realising what the important stats are and filtering all the pointless information.

Originally posted by Ribbo

Originally posted by gedwashere91

Originally posted by Ribbo
5% ROI and overcoming a 20% vig from the sports books. You have to put a lot of work into sportsbetting to show a profit.

I know that UniTAB (who I work for) puts an 18% "rake" on the wagering pools... which is Horses, Trotting and Greyhounds... Not sure how the sports bookmakers run theirs.

EDIT: I'm curious to know how you get enough knowledge on such a wide variety of sports to beat the bookmakers on each one... AFAIK we have one bookmaker dedicated to setting the odds on one or occasionally two sports.. surely they have more time to work out the odds?

In America they love statistics, every single thing is analysed to death. It's all about realising what the important stats are and filtering all the pointless information.

Yeah, like this

In America they love statistics,

That's why football (soccer) will never be popular in the USA. Unless they introduce commercials so you can get up and walk to the fridge/toilet every now and then.

Do i see an americanfootballbettingstrategy.com site coming up?

IF YOU START ONE, PAY ME 2% OF WINNINGS FOR THE IDEA... and please dont make the strategy articles as long as that post... seriously though, wouldn't be that bad i think

Originally posted by Jackalof

In America they love statistics,

That's why football (soccer) will never be popular in the USA. Unless they introduce commercials so you can get up and walk to the fridge/toilet every now and then.

maybe because soccer is the most boring game ever made? I'd rather see 90 hours of golf than 90 minutes of soccer.

Originally posted by alejandrosh
maybe because soccer is the most boring game ever made?

Amazing how many people express an opinion in such a way as to make it look like fact.

It's more convincing that way ♦

Whats your lock of the week! I need some action.
btw id love to pick your brain when the NBA season comes around.

ice hockey sports betting seems more profitable to me so far (roi of 130 percent for 2 weeks) : ) but i am placing more bets on European games.

today's bet will be on Cherepovec - CSKA Moscow = that's the russian KHL. Place your bets on Cherepovec or on "under 5.5" where it says under/over.

will keep the thread updated with more quick tips ; )

Originally posted by Reanimater
ice hockey sports betting seems more profitable to me so far (roi of 130 percent for 2 weeks) : ) but i am placing more bets on European games.

today's bet will be on Cherepovec - CSKA Moscow = that's the russian KHL. Place your bets on Cherepovec or on "under 5.5" where it says under/over.

will keep the thread updated with more quick tips ; )

This is actually really important to note, most sports where there is actual value to be had is lower league sports. Top flight sports tend to have the most statistics available so it's much harder to find a value line. But if you have personal knowledge of lower division sports then often you find an profitable line (and also bookmakers lines are further apart)

I agree with you Ribbo.

I had some real variance on NHL (the usa/canada league which is the biggest and most popular one), while I was able to squeeze good money out of the league games in Slovakia/Sweden/Poland/Austria/Norway/Finland/Russia.

There is variance here as well, of course. There is no "sure bet". My advice for today has a 60-80 percent chance of success, with the possibility of going into a draw (loss for me) or win for the other team (loss again).

Good bankroll management can be applied to sports betting as well, so in the long run, a smart punter can win.

I usually tend to place only single bets, instead of making combination (parlay) bets.

P.s.: do not place bet on any French games :/ Haven't had nothing good coming from France ♦

Last but not least, ribbo, can you share some web sites where I can read more about NFL? Always wanted to learn more about that sport

Originally posted by Ribbo

Originally posted by Reanimater
ice hockey sports betting seems more profitable to me so far (roi of 130 percent for 2 weeks) : ) but i am placing more bets on European games.

today's bet will be on Cherepovec - CSKA Moscow = that's the russian KHL. Place your bets on Cherepovec or on "under 5.5" where it says under/over.

will keep the thread updated with more quick tips ; )

This is actually really important to note, most sports where there is actual value to be had is lower league sports. Top flight sports tend to have the most statistics available so it's much harder to find a value line. But if you have personal knowledge of lower division sports then often you find an profitable line (and also bookmakers lines are further apart)

Cherepovec won their game : ) that's one win so far ~

predictions for today:

Czechoslovakia ice hockey- Pardubice - Mlada Boleslav - my bet is on Pardubice.

Denmark ice hockey - Odense Bulldogs - Sonderjyske - me bet is on Sonderjyske.

France ice hockey - Dijon - Amiens - my bet is on Amiens

France ice hockey - Strasbourg - Epinal - my bet is on Strasbourg

Norway ice hockey - Lorenskog - Stjernen - my bet is on Lorenskog.

Norway ice hockey - Stavanger - Manglerud - my bet is on Stavanger

Norway ice hockey - Valerenga Oslo - Frisk Asker - my bet is on Valerenga Oslo

Russian ice hockey - Yugra - Novokuznetsk - my bet is on yugra.

Slovakia ice hockey - Kosice - Skalica - my bet is on kosice.

Sweden ice hockey - Djurgardens IF - Brynas IF - my bet is on Djurgardens IF

Quite impressive^^

My bets for today

Thats KHL -Russia, Norway, Finland and Sweden - all ice hockey.

Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk - Amur Khabarovsk
Match
Including overtime and penalty shootout
Your bet: Single, 1
£ 0.80 1.52 21/10/10 Pending

Manglerud Star - Sparta Sarpsborg
Double Chance
Regular time
Your bet: Single, X2
£ 0.80 1.10 21/10/10 Pending

Stjernen - Stavanger
Double Chance
Regular time
Your bet: Single, X2
£ 0.80 1.12 21/10/10 Pending

Storhamar - Vålerenga Elite
Double Chance
Regular time
Your bet: Single, X2
£ 0.80 1.48 21/10/10 Pending

Brynäs IF - Skellefteå AIK
Over/Under
Total Goals Scored 6.5 - Regular Time Only
Your bet: Single, Under 6.5
£ 0.80 1.28 21/10/10 Pending

Frölunda Indians - Timrå IK
Over/Under
Total Goals Scored 6.5 - Regular Time Only
Your bet: Single, Under 6.5
£ 0.80 1.25 21/10/10 Pending

HV 71 - Djurgårdens IF
Over/Under
Total Goals Scored 5.5 - Regular Time Only
Your bet: Single, Under 5.5
£ 0.80 1.80 21/10/10 Pending

Kärpät - JYP
Over/Under
Total Goals Scored 5.5 - Regular Time Only
Your bet: Single, Under 5.5
£ 0.80 1.60 21/10/10 Pending

Linköpings HC - Färjestads BK
Over/Under
Total Goals Scored 5.5 - Regular Time Only
Your bet: Single, Under 5.5
£ 1.62 1.60 21/10/10 Pending

Luleå HF - MoDo
Over/Under
Total Goals Scored 5.5 - Regular Time Only
Your bet: Single, Under 5.5
£ 0.80 1.70 21/10/10 Pending

Will there be a football preview for 2011? : )

Yeah i'm interested to know which betting facility to use also.
There was a guy from the UK who used Betfair and amassed an incredible £18m using their facilty which allows you to set the odds and act as the "bookmaker" effectively.
Very interesting will we have an update soon please