[Closed] Time's a loaded gun : semi-serious NL blog - now on nl100

1) Oppo 24/19/3.2/27 1,5k hands, fold to 3bet 74, fold to cbet 42, 0/3 on 3bet pot

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($56.88)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($59.90)
CO ($157)
BTN ($52.78)

Dealt to Hero K♦ K♠

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5, UTG calls $3.50

FLOP ($10.25) 3♠ 2♦ Q♦

Hero bets $7.50, UTG calls $7.50

TURN ($25.25) 3♠ 2♦ Q♦ A♣

Hero checks, UTG checks

RIVER ($25.25) 3♠ 2♦ Q♦ A♣ 8♠

Hero ?

is there value in betting the river? i think yes, but it's very thin if you exclude AK from his calling to 3bet range, his fold to 3bet is also high so he don't have too much marginal hands here. His aggression on the river is also low, when he bets here he has a valuehand. Imo c/f > b/f > c/c.

2) Oppo calling station 32/15/1.1/40

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($13.75)
Hero ($57.07)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($62.61)
CO ($52.96)
BTN ($12.53)

Dealt to Hero A♥ K♦

fold, fold, CO raises to $1, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $2.50

FLOP ($7.25) A♠ 9♣ T♠

Hero bets $6.50, CO calls $6.50

TURN ($20.25) A♠ 9♣ T♠ 4♦

Hero bets $15, CO calls $15

RIVER ($50.25) A♠ 9♣ T♠ 4♦ J♠

Hero ?

I think that until the turn is pretty standard, the river is terrible i think i'm ahead only against not so much hands anymore, can i c/f this? or do i have to go allin to make AQ ( A8? KT?) pay? i think it's pretty close and both allin and c/f are possible, also c/c could be reasonable but when i'm gonna call i see myself pretty crushed.

3) BB calling station 47/10/0.8/48

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($14.75)
BB ($50.19)
UTG ($50)
Hero ($55.55)
CO ($77.44)
BTN ($52.49)

Dealt to Hero 9♦ A♦

fold, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, fold, fold, BB calls $1.25

FLOP ($5.50) 3♦ J♣ T♣

BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

TURN ($5.50) 3♦ J♣ T♣ J♦

BB checks, Hero bets $4, CO calls $4, BB calls $4

RIVER ($17.50) 3♦ J♣ T♣ J♦ 8♦

BB bets $13.12, Hero ?

At the turn i try to lead out to take it down with still some equity, the river helps me but the calling station donks out, think he's never bluffing here, do i have to ship it with still the other guy behind to get paid by worst flushes, or if i ship it i'm just isolating myself against full houses? I think that calling is useless because if the guy behind ships it i can't fold anyway i guess? even if we're a bit deep still.. but probably allin>call

4) BTN is regular 27/23/4.0/29 1k hands ,fold to 3bet 59, pretty aggressive against other regulars

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($51)
Hero ($159)
UTG ($18.75)
CO ($56.54)
BTN ($66.36)

Dealt to Hero Q♣ Q♠

fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, fold, Hero raises to $5, BTN calls $3.50

FLOP ($10.25) 8♦ 2♠ 5♠

Hero bets $7.50, BTN calls $7.50

TURN ($25.25) 8♦ 2♠ 5♠ 8♣

Hero bets $18, BTN calls $18

RIVER ($61.25) 8♦ 2♠ 5♠ 8♣ A♦

Hero bets $129 (AI), BTN calls $35.86 (AI)

Is the river an allin in order to get paid by JJ and TT, or am i just isolating myself? what about c/c (AF river 4.3 afreq river 28%)?
I think that with c/c i can miss value sometimes but i do regain it all with all the times he's on a failed flushdraws, the ace is in his range by a little part i think (if he holds something like A♠J♠ etc). Let's say that allin=c/c in the long run? I don't think i can fold here.

5) SB is reg 23/19/2.5/25 1,2k hands , squeeze 7%,cbet 70% cbet in 3bet pot 78%
CO is superfish 54/13/0.7/38

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($66.49)
BB ($52.08)
Hero ($69.59)
UTG+1 ($83.94)
CO ($39.77)
BTN ($54.14)

Dealt to Hero 8♣ 8♠

Hero raises to $1.75, fold, CO calls $1.75, fold, SB raises to $7.50, fold, Hero calls $5.75, fold

FLOP ($17.25) K♠ 9♦ 3♥

SB bets $9.50, Hero raises to $23

Preflop i do call the squeeze for implied odds, considering that the CO is practically never folds. Of course he folds :P. At the flop i tought that SB is bluffing at least 30% of the times, and he's able to fold his QQ-JJ-AQ, so i raisebluffed, of course the plan is to r/f. Is it doable or i'm just wasting money in the long run? also consider that i bet 23 to win a pot of 26.75, so i have to win at least 47% of the times..

Back with some hands, for who wanna judge:

1) UTG is a fish 61/29/1.8/40 even if after only 20 hands, he also posts the bb without waiting.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($50.75)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($50)
CO ($65.58)
BTN ($64.82)

Dealt to Hero A♦ T♥

UTG checks, fold, CO calls $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.25, UTG raises to $4, fold, Hero calls $1.75

FLOP ($8.75) K♦ J♦ A♥

Hero bets $6, UTG raises to $12, Hero calls $6

TURN ($32.75) K♦ J♦ A♥ 2♦

Hero checks, UTG bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

RIVER ($47.75) K♦ J♦ A♥ 2♦ 9♣

Hero checks

Preflop is a standard raise for me, utg miniraises and that's sometimes a monster, but i can't be so sure and i have to call i guess. On the flop i prefer lead out, in case he have a little ace or something he wanna pay off, like a fd, and he miniraises again.. now, that could be a fold, but for me it's ok to try to call at least once and try to hit my gutshot or go for pot control against a small bet. On the turn i also pick up the nut fd and he bets so small that i have to call for sure.The river doesnt help me so i go for c/f to a shove and c/c to a small bet. Fine line?

2) BB is a regular or something like this, 26/20/1.8/17 on 346 hands and was 3betting me light i guess, 11% 3bet, 20% 3bet from the BB, 83% cbet, 2/2 cbet on 3bet pot, 0 (zero) cbet turn, but 2/3 (included this one) c/r on turn.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($50)
BB ($77.81)
UTG ($82.56)
Hero ($149)
CO ($32.34)
BTN ($65.48)

Dealt to Hero 7♠ 7♦

fold, Hero raises to $1.75, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $4.25

FLOP ($12.25) T♠ 4♣ 2♣

BB bets $8, Hero calls $8

TURN ($28.25) T♠ 4♣ 2♣ 2♠

BB checks, Hero bets $18, BB raises to $38, Hero folds

BB wins $61.25

Well let's make it short, i just missed the bravery to shove, would have it been +EV? could my not-so-big bet have induced him to shove in bluff or semibluff? He doesnt shove but he's now committed with just 25€ behind after his last bet.

3) BB appears as a passive regular 26/22/1.0/22 on 90 hands, 1/2 cbet

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($102)
Hero ($132)
BTN ($79.86)

Dealt to Hero 8♠ T♠

fold, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, SB raises to $12, Hero calls $6

FLOP ($24) 6♠ 3♠ 8♥

SB bets $14, Hero calls $14

TURN ($52) 6♠ 3♠ 8♥ 2♠

SB checks, Hero bets $27

Preflop i don't think i can fold playing deep against a mini4bet in posizion. On the flop i could raise, but i don't think it's the best play because i can't see any worse hands giving me further action considering that we're playing deep so i suppose him tighter than usual, and i hope in a freecard/take it down with a float pretty often if unimproved. On the turn i close the draw and obviously i go for bet/call.
I think it's pretty standard but i'm not so sure, any toughts?

4) BTN is a reg 6/20/1.8/17 on 346 hands (the one of hand #2), 83% cbet, 3/3 fold cbet to raise.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($65.87)
BB ($15)
BTN ($51.45)

Dealt to Hero 2♠ 2♦

BTN raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.50, fold

FLOP ($4) J♠ 9♥ 7♥

Hero checks, BTN bets $3, Hero raises to $9, BTN calls $6

TURN ($22) J♠ 9♥ 7♥ J♥

Hero bets $15

I think that it's a flop where i can represent many hands by c/r, so it's time to balance my range a bit and go for it. He calls, and the turn is tricky in my opinion. Assuming that he's a decent regular, and he'd have 3betted sets, T8, overpairs and monster draws, in his range there's some little fd and bluffcatchers like TT, 98s, maybe some jacks like JT, JQ, also QT for a straightdraw it's possible. Thinking that a good part of his range would be scared by the J because: if i'd had a fd i would have made it ; if i'd have a set now it's full house; if i'd have a jack now it's trips ; so i tried to bet and try to take it down, considering that it have to work around 40% of the times, and even if he calls it's also good for my image, and i still have a tiny equity for another 2.

5) oppo reg 28/21/2.5/27 on 365 hands, 11% 3bet, 15% 3bet on the btn, 80% cbet, never faced a 4bet in my database

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($102)
BB ($53.73)
Hero ($64.54)
BTN ($50)

Dealt to Hero A♠ 8♣

Hero raises to $1.75, BTN raises to $5.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $12.50, BTN calls $7

FLOP ($25.75) 9♦ 4♣ 8♦

Hero checks, BTN checks

TURN ($25.75) 9♦ 4♣ 8♦ Q♦

Hero bets $14, BTN raises to $37.50 (AI), Hero calls $23.50

RIVER ($100) 9♦ 4♣ 8♦ Q♦ K♥

Definitely a tricky one. I 4bet him as a bluff with a blocker and he calls. Now it's really difficult for me to give him a range of calls to 4bets, he could have a premium JJ+ and try to slowplay, he could have AQ+ and see if he hits to go broke, he could have a medium pair 77-TT and don't want to fold but afraid of going allin preflop, he also could have some suited connector or broadway hand...
Sticking to my purpose 'it's just a bluff i don't have to go broke with middle pair' my intention is to c/f the flop, but he checks behind.
Assuming that he's decent he'd never checkbehind a overpair or a set in such a drawheavy board, also a fd would have bet/called. So i bet 1/2 pot on the turn to take it down/eventually being called by A♦/eventually being shipped in bluff/semibluff. And he ships, and this time i want to try, i think the only reasonable hands for him here is AQ-KQ in my opinion.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($7.75)
BB ($11.15)
UTG ($55.55)
UTG+1 ($66.10)
UTG+2 ($19.35)
MP1 ($86.70)
MP2 ($50)
CO ($32.10)
Hero ($60.70)

Dealt to Hero J♥ T♦

UTG calls $0.50, fold, fold, MP1 calls $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.75, fold, fold, UTG calls $2.25, fold

FLOP ($6.75) 6♣ A♦ K♣

UTG checks, Hero bets $4.75, UTG calls $4.75

TURN ($16.25) 6♣ A♦ K♣ Q♦

UTG checks, Hero bets $13, UTG calls $13

RIVER ($42.25) 6♣ A♦ K♣ Q♦ 7♣

UTG bets $35.05 (AI), Hero ?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($50)
BB ($56.50)
UTG ($37.15)
UTG+1 ($50.75)
UTG+2 ($50)
MP1 ($53.20)
MP2 ($50)
CO ($135)
Hero ($51)

Dealt to Hero Q♦ Q♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $1.75, fold, Hero raises to $5.50, fold, fold, MP2 calls $3.75

FLOP ($11.75) 3♣ 6♥ 9♠

MP2 checks, Hero bets $6, MP2 calls $6

TURN ($23.75) 3♣ 6♥ 9♠ 4♣

MP2 checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($23.75) 3♣ 6♥ 9♠ 4♣ 5♣

MP2 bets $11.50, Hero ?

Back for some more analysis, now at nl100:

1)SB is a standard tag reg but i resetted hm hud few seconds before the hand, so i have no stats of him at the moment.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($107)
BB ($108)
UTG ($113)
UTG+1 ($123)
CO ($92.20)
Hero ($163)

Dealt to Hero T♥ A♥

UTG raises to $3.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $3.50, SB calls $3, fold

FLOP ($11.50) 9♦ 2♠ 3♠

SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8, UTG folds

TURN ($27.50) 9♦ 2♠ 3♠ 4♥

SB checks, Hero bets $21, SB calls $21

RIVER ($69.50) 9♦ 2♠ 3♠ 4♥ 8♦

SB checks, Hero bets $131 (AI)

Pretty standard flat preflop, i bet the flop because the pfr is another reg and he's likely to cbet with everything connected with the board or overpairs, if he don't he's checkfolding almost always.
When SB calls the cbet i'm pretty sure he doesnt have a monster, probably an overpair like TT-JJ or 98 T9, maybe a fd.
He calls the turn too and at the river the fd haven't got there, only 98 has improved (wich he'd have probably fold to the turnbet) and i decide to go on and represent a set myself or a big overpair and shove, for a little overbet (he has to call 75 in a 69 pot).

2)UTG+1 is a reg 21/16/2.9/28, flop cbet 54, turn cbet 57

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($207)
BB ($45.81)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($120)
CO ($131)
Hero ($138)

Dealt to Hero T♠ K♠

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, fold, Hero calls $3.50, fold, fold

FLOP ($8.50) K♥ 3♠ J♣

UTG+1 bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

TURN ($21.50) K♥ 3♠ J♣ 4♠

UTG+1 bets $16, Hero raises to $45, UTG+1 calls $29

RIVER ($111) K♥ 3♠ J♣ 4♠ 8♣

UTG+1 checks, Hero checkbehind or shove?

pretty loose flat preflop, standard call on the flop, on the turn i decide to go for the semibluff even if his range for 2 barrel is pretty strong considered that he doesnt cbet that much, but he could also be bet/folding a good amount of hands. I get flatted and i don't know if i should shove the river or not, of course i got showdown value but i'm good very rarely here, the only reason could be for thin bluff, like making fold KQ and AK? will they fold? and maybe for thin value against an unlikely QQ. I'm already ahead of spades semibluffs and missed oesd like QT, so i decided to checkbehind wich i think is the best play cauz i'll get called too much, and never exctract value. This hand is an example of the risk of 6max, you play aggressive and you build up adrenaline, and you risk to shove where you shouldnt.

3)SB is a loose reg, decently aggressive, 36/20/2.3/23 over 500 hands, fold to 3bet 11% (1/9) , fold to cbet 50.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($159)
Hero ($104)
UTG ($113)
UTG+1 ($150)
CO ($23.39)
BTN ($120)

Dealt to Hero 9♦ Q♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6

FLOP ($18) J♦ 6♥ 7♦

SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12

TURN ($42) J♦ 6♥ 7♦ 4♥

SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22

RIVER ($86) J♦ 6♥ 7♦ 4♥ 6♦

SB checks, Hero bets $61.52 (AI)

I decide to 3bet preflop because i think he'll call very wide yes, but i think i have an edge postflop and i definitely want to play pots with him, the hand is too weak for flatting so i decide to go ahead and 3bet.
Flop comes connected and already there i decided to go for a 3barrel in case turn and river comes highcards or comes blanks. That's the case of the blank turn and i decide to 3barrel my Q high, bit sick, but not too bad i think, i know he knows that it's a spot that i rarely bluff so i think i have an huge fold equity on the river, his range at the river is still pretty weak and his went to showdown is low, and i can easily represent a fd.

do you have skype?