[Closed] FL $2/$4 over pair - turn & river vs. unknown?

without a good read on BB i can'T really evaluate that hand properly but i think you can do a fold on the river because it makes absolutely no sense that he bets the river with a worse hands which doesn't mean that he couldn't though =/. i'd just call due to the fact that i can't assess my opponents and Co might have had a hand like KT KQ with Flushdraw and went for a semibluff on the turn or 89 got busted now and BB could possibly donk with a worse pair, a busted draw (even though it's unlikely) or whatever. with both players being unknown i'd done the crying call as well but it's certainly close and a fold can't - if at all - be a big mistake. with a small tendency that bb is a straightforward tag i definitely would release the hand.

Thank you very much for your input

This is a pretty easy fold on the river give that river hits a passive low stakes players flop call - turn CC range and you have a player who's shown strength behind you.

The turn is a different story though. You must at least call with your outs that beat 2p and the possibility that villain waited for the turn with Jx.

actually BB can just represent the bd Flushdraw since i'd assume that he raises a J on the flop and he would have 3bet with a straight on the turn. i don't agree with you that it is an absolutely easy fold against an unknown player in a huge pot. tendencys about their aggression would be very helpful.

I would call the river only if I knew BB was irrational. In that case a donkbet could be many hands and you can beat CO sometimes (98). 17:1 pot odds is then worth the risk. If BB is rational or unknown he can't expect to win the hand with a bluff against 2 players who showed a lot oft strength and he can valuebet only better hands.

One way to approach this problem mathematically is to figure out how much we have to me good against BB by fixing CO's range, which we feel more comfortable estimating. That's what I did in the pokerstove below:

77 games 0.005 secs 15,400 games/sec

Board: Jh 9h 3c 8c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.974% 25.97% 00.00% 20 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 74.026% 74.03% 00.00% 57 0.00 { 88, 33, KJs, QTs+, J7s+, T9s, 98s, KJo, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o }

So, we're getting 1:18 (with probable crying call from CO), and thus:

1/19 = .25874 * (we beat BB)

Therefore, we need to beat BB 0.052/.25974=0.2026 or ~20%

I would put the estimate of how much we beat BB at a maximum of 7 to 10%, but I'm just guessing like everyone else.