[Closed] PLO5 QQJTss postflop decisions

The problem with the flop is there isn't any good line to take when out of position.

If we bet out we almost certainly get worse flush draws to fold that would pay us off. We also bloat the pot against the ace high flush draw that almost certainly will bluff us off the pot on the river if the flush doesn't hit since the king on the flop is scary.

If we bet out half pot it looks exactly like what it is, a flush draw.

If we check/call we at least have a chance of keeping worse flushes in the pot but again it looks like a flush draw.

On the turn I like your bet. On a blank river I likely bet full pot and if the river pairs the board I bet because opponent clearly doesn't have a set of K's, 8's or 4's as he bets flop and he can't have Aces since he flatted preflop so to me this says he must have a flush. I think even AKxx folds the turn a lot of the time there with 4 outs but it's possible they keep you honest on the turn.

That said you're not getting paid off, so bet 20 cents on the river and definitely consider calling a raise since it makes no sense you being beat here.

The flop is difficult.Checking is fine.

I prefer a bigger turn bet: for value and to encourage villain(s) to play more straightforwardly.

The river is very opponent dependant. If we assume that villain had either turned a flush or backed into two-pair (ak**,a8**,a4**) then depending upon the strength of villain's pf range we may or may not want to vbet the river. We have thin value versus an 80/15 player and are way behind a 30/15 player. All the big s that are accounted for make it more likely that a tighter villain has a FH.

I haven't done the combinatorics exactly but our river eq is 25-30% versus a tighter player under said assumptions. Surprising to say the least.....

Originally posted by Nunki
The flop is difficult.Checking is fine.

I prefer a bigger turn bet: for value and to encourage villain(s) to play more straightforwardly.

The river is very opponent dependant. If we assume that villain had either turned a flush or backed into two-pair (ak**,a8**,a4**) then depending upon the strength of villain's pf range we may or may not want to vbet the river. We have thin value versus an 80/15 player and are way behind a 30/15 player. All the big s that are accounted for make it more likely that a tighter villain has a FH.

I haven't done the combinatorics exactly but our river eq is 25-30% versus a tighter player under said assumptions. Surprising to say the least.....

The problem behind your logic is no tight player is calling the turn with A4 or A8 barring a perfect 4 cards where they also have a flush. They don't want to risk being dominated by AK or a big set that slow played the flop.

I think if the flop was AK8 all diamonds and the turn was another ace you would have a valid point, but on this board I don't see any value in peeling one off on the turn with 4 outs.