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[Closed] [0.10/0,20]KK top set on 3suited board

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This is a hand where I really didnt know, how to play it right. It's 6handed to the flop and i hit top set on a 3-suited board.

0.10/0.20 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K♣, K♠
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BU calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (12.00 SB) 7♥, K♥, 8♥ (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BU raises, SB calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, BU calls, SB calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) T♣ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, BU calls, SB calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 5♠ (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, BU calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB


4 replies

the hole hand is played well. you can't fold a set of kings here.


armadilo
Joined: 21.09.2007

Hello,

Hopefuly I got the calculations right :) -> this is my first time, I hope they will help you.

1. Probability that someone flopped the flush, and you're not holding the best hand now.

(<Probability of beeing delt 2 suited cards> / <4 possible suits>) * <no. of players>
(23.5% / 4) * 5 ~= 30%.

Take a note about a multiway pot, for each player in the pot you should consider 6% (23.5% / 4) that someone flopped a flush.

Even in this situation you still have 7 outs + some outs for the same card on turn & river, which according to poker calculator, give you 35% chance of winning in this situation.

2. You're holding the best hand -> let's see how many times you win. I assume, that if another heart comes you loose.

I calculated this using hand calculator (KK against nut flush draw with this flop), and you win 70% of the time & lose 30%.

3. Adding this two situations.

Win Rate: <prob. of someone flopping a flush> * <your chance of improving> + <prob of someone flopping a flush draw> * <your chance of staying ahead> = 30% * 35% + 70% * 70% = 10.5% + 49% = 59.5%.

4. There is also straight draw possibility, but this is rather marginal, so I'll skip the calculations and will say, that you'll loose to a str8 only ~3% of the time.

Summary:
As you can see, you'll win here more often than you lose and you should push as much on the flop as possible, so you played it correctly. If a heart would come on the turn, you should call the raises according to the outs & odds to see if you've hit a full house.
This calculations were made assuming a Heads-Up situation after the flop, but since there is more than one player after the flop, your EV rises even more.

Hopefully these calculations are right and helpful. If I made some mistake, please point it out so we could all benefit :).

GL at the tables!


frzl
Joined: 25.04.2006

mh you guys are right but i really ask myself if we should raise the river again. there is only one hand which improves with the 5 which we don´t beat... 64 -.-
i don´t think that he would play a small flush this way so i vote for a river raise/call

btw: flop play is excellent as already metioned :)


Nice analyses armadilo.

As frzl mentioned you can think about a riverraise but because it's still 3-way I like to go with the overcall more.