[Closed] 26 67s

what do you think he calls with preflop and is bluffing with? check sample size of stats IMO. if he's a nit then you can call.

Originally posted by chenny8888
what do you think he calls with preflop and is bluffing with? check sample size of stats IMO. if he's a nit then you can call.

Not really important to consider his range pre imo. But when he calls flop he got like 22-JJ, and like diamond broadways, maybe JTdd 9Tdd (although this is v unlikely).

When he barrels turn I think he has diamonds close to all time. No one is going to shove a fullhouse/quads imo and also like I said before people just aren't good enough to thinvbet what was an overpair on the flop. Sure maybe sme slowplayed stuff some of time - but this is pretty unlikely.

Plus also AKdd raising pre, so we have left like KQdd and KJdd (very few limited combos). But he can have AQdd, ATdd, AJdd, QJdd that I am beating.

But I guess i have to near nail his shoving range to this on turn to get odds to call.

not really, u just need like 38% equity (without calculating exactly). problem is he's calling a UTG raise from MP2, how many comboes of diamonds do u think he has? that aren't KJ/KQdd?

Originally posted by amplifyd

Originally posted by chenny8888
what do you think he calls with preflop and is bluffing with? check sample size of stats IMO. if he's a nit then you can call.

Not really important to consider his range pre imo. But when he calls flop he got like 22-JJ, and like diamond broadways, maybe JTdd 9Tdd (although this is v unlikely).

When he barrels turn I think he has diamonds close to all time. No one is going to shove a fullhouse/quads imo and also like I said before people just aren't good enough to thinvbet what was an overpair on the flop. Sure maybe sme slowplayed stuff some of time - but this is pretty unlikely.

Plus also AKdd raising pre, so we have left like KQdd and KJdd (very few limited combos). But he can have AQdd, ATdd, AJdd, QJdd that I am beating.

But I guess i have to near nail his shoving range to this on turn to get odds to call.

hmmm the problem here is as I can read HH that he didnt call on flop you check and he bets into 2 players so imo given your reads that he is 10/10 his range is more PP 88-QQ maybe slowplayed KK+, AdKd then flush draws like 2 face dd cards
and btw i dont think that he is betting his PP on turn for value he is mostly betting for protection from over cards (A,Q) and flush draws and cos any bet he makes pot committee him shoving is best play imo

if you have bet on flop and he just call and then when you check he shove you can widen his range with flush draws but any way I dont think that this type of villain (10/10) have a lot of suited cards comb. in his preflop calling range to start with

Board: 7d 2d 2h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.610% 39.61% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 7s6s }
Hand 1: 60.390% 60.39% 00.00% 186 0.00 { AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

seems close anyway. and sometimes he's 3betting AKs also. not sure. depends whether you think he flats with JTs and QJs or not it seems... some people don't

Originally posted by chenny8888
Board: 7d 2d 2h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.610% 39.61% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 7s6s }
Hand 1: 60.390% 60.39% 00.00% 186 0.00 { AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

seems close anyway. and sometimes he's 3betting AKs also. not sure. depends whether you think he flats with JTs and QJs or not it seems... some people don't

+1
yea of course is close ev call

i just want to say that in mtt chip lost have more value then chip gain so as hand is played (hero check/call flop)I prefer fold in this spot

Originally posted by bonebt

Originally posted by chenny8888
Board: 7d 2d 2h Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.610% 39.61% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 7s6s }
Hand 1: 60.390% 60.39% 00.00% 186 0.00 { AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

seems close anyway. and sometimes he's 3betting AKs also. not sure. depends whether you think he flats with JTs and QJs or not it seems... some people don't

+1
yea of course is close ev call

i just want to say that in mtt chip lost have more value then chip gain so as hand is played (hero check/call flop)I prefer fold in this spot

agree -> seems close to me. guess folding the turn is not a real mistake!

quote:
Originally posted by bonebt
quote:
Originally posted by chenny8888
Board: 7d 2d 2h Kh

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.610% 39.61% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 7s6s }
Hand 1: 60.390% 60.39% 00.00% 186 0.00 { AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

seems close anyway. and sometimes he's 3betting AKs also. not sure. depends whether you think he flats with JTs and QJs or not it seems... some people don't

+1
yea of course is close ev call

i just want to say that in mtt chip lost have more value then chip gain so as hand is played (hero check/call flop)I prefer fold in this spot

I agree, one ought to take into account that a 5% of equity is needed according to ICM simulation, not to mention that at the bubble a 13% needs to be added to the EquiLated equity, eventually imo that's a fold. Obviuosly in cash game this is a narrow call. In conclusion AFAIC for the specific case this is a +EV call, but a -$EV call, whilst for the same case in cash game $EV=EV>0

We are v far away from the bubble though?

Even if you are away from the bubble you have 39% equity, whilst the ICM pot odds are 43%, so your call is $EV<0. (Of course EV>0, but you don't bother)

fold pre pls.

pre is fine with this stack depth. i like it more with antes but even without, 76s is a hand that's nice to have in our UTG range.

Originally posted by chenny8888
pre is fine with this stack depth. i like it more with antes but even without, 76s is a hand that's nice to have in our UTG range.

yea

i prefer(obv depending on table dynamics etc) AQ+,AJs+, KQ, KQs, 22+,76s-JTs
vs 77+,AJ+,ATs+,A2s-A5s,KJs,KQ,KQs for EP range in MTTs