BTN: $73.95
SB: $49.85
Hero (BB): $50.00
CO: $55.85
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q♣ 9♣
CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($1.25) 5♣ 6♣ 5♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80
Turn: ($2.85) 9♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1, Hero calls $1
River: ($4.85) 7♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero folds
My reasoning for c/c the turn:
- I assume he will call the flop with any 2 and call the turn with any draw and might fold all his "bluffcalls" like JTo, KT, A7.. He only has 2 overcard outs per card.
- In this kind of spot my flop betting range will be: Any clubs, overcards, A hi, any draw. I often have to c/f the turn, and most of the time limpers will just bet the turn and I fold.
- This means their turn bluffing range is way bigger than their calling range that I have beat, which means I get the same amount of money in but with a higher frequency.
On the river the only hands I beat are combinations of 97. His change in betsizing from 1/3 pot to pot leads me to believe I have an easy fold here.
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On another note:
What If I elected to bet the turn 2$ and not give up intiative. His range on the river will consist of 6x,7x,8 of which most have me beat. Do you check/fold? Bet/fold will be quite expensive because I'd have to invest more than I've already put in the pot to get very very thin value.
