Hi, NightFrosta,
I couldn't find my standard deviation in HEM as per the site instructions so I just used a SD of 80. Since my VPIP/PFR are 14.9/11.1, I'm guessing my SD should be lower. I'll probably have to register HEM in order to get that information.
Anyway, the most extreme downswing I can expect is an astounding -410 bb/100. My most probable win rates over the long term are either -2 bb/100 or 20 bb/100.
Let me know if you have any comments.
I'd recommend to try some lower variance games. PLO heads up would be just perfect for the beginner.
Originally posted by belayd
Hi, NightFrosta,I couldn't find my standard deviation in HEM as per the site instructions so I just used a SD of 80. Since my VPIP/PFR are 14.9/11.1, I'm guessing my SD should be lower. I'll probably have to register HEM in order to get that information.
Anyway, the most extreme downswing I can expect is an astounding -410 bb/100. My most probable win rates over the long term are either -2 bb/100 or 20 bb/100.
Let me know if you have any comments.
Idk at what bb/100 most extreme downer could be but with 80bb/100 standard deviation and 10bb/100 true winrate the most extreme downer should be ~3500bb.
And longest break even period of about 82k hands.
If your standard deviation would be lower like let's say 60bb/100 (which is very low and probably too low, not sure abt standard dev in fr) then you could expect your most brutal downer to be around 20bi and longest break even period of about 50k hands.
And that's all with pretty optimistic 10bb/100 winrate. So as you may see 1,8k hands is nothing but a drop in an ocean compared to what you are yet to experience.
Could it be that people need 1k hands or such to develop reads about your greatest leaks and then start exploiting them?
Originally posted by farbwenz
Could it be that people need 1k hands or such to develop reads about your greatest leaks and then start exploiting them?
yes, people at NL2 exploit you hard
Some advice OP 
Notice when you ask a 'good' question you get informational answers that help and when you ask a question that is, shall we say, 'less specific' you get stomped on?
Think carefully about what you want to ask, then when you writ (type) it, read it to see how it sounds. Some of these guys can be sooooo cruel (in a funny way!), but they know loads if you ask the right questions...and yes I know asking the right questions can be difficult as a beginner because you aren't sure what to ask or how to ask it...but plug away, you'll get there. These guys - and gals - can make you feared at any level if you do it right. GL.
Originally posted by alejandrosh
Originally posted by farbwenz
Could it be that people need 1k hands or such to develop reads about your greatest leaks and then start exploiting them?yes, people at NL2 exploit you hard
Not as outrageous as it sounds. The way one pro put it to me elsewhere, this is no longer 2004 and there are far more nits/serious students/microstakes regulars than there used to be. The various economic downturns and the U.S. UIGEA scared away a lot of frivolous players, and even at the microstakes the competition is much tougher than it was when all of today's experts were first starting out (and last played microstakes).
I haven't crunched the numbers but, at the tables I've played, it isn't uncommon to find 3-4 nits all bunched up to my left. So far, in 1.7K hands, I've played against ONE player (a VPIP/PFR of 92/2) whom I would identify as a fish. The rest have been mostly either tight-passive or loose-agressive, but still better quality than I'd been led to expect.
Originally posted by gadget51
Change the time of day you play.
Does that make a difference? I think I can filter by time of day in HEM. Let me know whether I should.
Originally posted by belayd
Originally posted by alejandrosh
Originally posted by farbwenz
Could it be that people need 1k hands or such to develop reads about your greatest leaks and then start exploiting them?yes, people at NL2 exploit you hard
Not as outrageous as it sounds. The way one pro put it to me elsewhere, this is no longer 2004 and there are far more nits/serious students/microstakes regulars than there used to be. The various economic downturns and the U.S. UIGEA scared away a lot of frivolous players, and even at the microstakes the competition is much tougher than it was when all of today's experts were first starting out (and last played microstakes).
I have the impression people are overreacting about how tough the games are now, It's true that they are way different than in 2004 but if you can't beat nl2 you just suck, it's not the games , it's not William Hill it's you.
